Small Craft Advisory 118, NWS Anchorage, AK

149 
FZAK51 PAFC 100038
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101315-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1021 mb low at 59N 147W moves inland Wed morning. A front reaches
the western Gulf Wed afternoon and remains stationary through
Thursday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-101315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101315-
Resurrection Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101315-
Prince William Sound-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101315-
Port Valdez-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101315-
Valdez Narrows-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Heavy freezing spray in the evening. Snow.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101315-
Valdez Arm-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the evening. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101315-
Passage Canal-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101315-
Barren Islands East-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101315-
Chiniak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101315-
Marmot Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101315-
Shelikof Strait-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-101315-
Kachemak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

525 
FZAK51 PAFC 101252
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110145-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves into the Gulf this afternoon and persists through
Friday morning.

$$

PKZ119-110145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110145-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and
seas S of Caines Head. Snow. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110145-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110145-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110145-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110145-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110145-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110145-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110145-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110145-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110145-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-110145-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

334 
FZAK51 PAFC 110108
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111345-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front moves into the Gulf this afternoon and persists
through Friday afternoon. A 992 mb North Pacific low moves to 320 
nm south of Middleton Island by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-111345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Southeast wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building
to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111345-
Resurrection Bay-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111345-
Prince William Sound-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111345-
Port Valdez-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111345-
Valdez Narrows-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111345-
Valdez Arm-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111345-
Passage Canal-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111345-
Barren Islands East-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111345-
Chiniak Bay-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111345-
Marmot Bay-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111345-
Shelikof Strait-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-111345-
Kachemak Bay-
408 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

648 
FZAK51 PAFC 111245
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120145-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front persists across the Gulf through Friday morning. A
second front enters the Gulf Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-120145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120145-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120145-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120145-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120145-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120145-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120145-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120145-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 45 kt
becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120145-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120145-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120145-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-120145-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge axis remains stretched from the Southern
Gulf of Alaska, over Southwest mainland Alaska and through the
Bering Strait. This is bringing a jet streak with strong
northwesterly flow aloft over Southcentral. A deep upper level low
centered southwest of Kamchatka, combined with the ridge, is
bringing southerly winds aloft to the Western and Central Bering
Sea this afternoon.

At the surface, the ridge center is offshore of the Arctic Coast
(it is a very strong ridge with a pressure of at least 1060 mb)
with a trough along the north Gulf coast. This pattern is
producing some outflow winds through channeled terrain, but the
pressure gradient, and therefore winds, winds are generally less
over Southern Alaska than more northerly parts of the state.
A small low can be seen on GOES-17 satellite developing southeast
of Cordova along the trough. This low will not strengthen much but
become an inverted trough that drifts across Cook Inlet tomorrow
night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement for the next few days. As
was noted on the previous discussion, there is a notable
discrepancy Wednesday through Thursday night over the eastern
Bering Sea region. This is in regards to a secondary low that
develops south of Unalaska Wednesday afternoon (while the main low
is still well southwest of Adak). This secondary low will move
northward, but the sharpness of the trough as depicted on the GFS
is much different than the NAM which washes out this feature. The
ECMWF has this feature, but depicts it as a slower moving closed
low. Expect models to converge on a solution that is more of a
balance between the GFS and ECMWF (the NAM solution does not look
as likely) and this will have an impact of the forecast for the
Eastern Aleutians as well as the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Fog looks less
likely around the airport tonight as compared to the past few
nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Monday night through Thursday)...

One last day of quiet, clear, and cold weather is expected before
a pattern change towards seasonal temperatures and more active
weather begins Tuesday night. An inverted trough can be seen
developing over the northern Gulf on Satellite this afternoon,
which will slowly move towards the Prince William Sound overnight
tonight into Tuesday. Coastal areas will be the first to see some
light snow Tuesday afternoon before the low moves over the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains Tuesday night. This will bring some light
snow from Kenai to Anchorage overnight before downsloping dries
out the atmosphere Wednesday morning. Snow totals for the western
Kenai Peninsula are expected to be around 2-3 inches, while the
Anchorage Bowl should see closer to an inch. Southwest flow aloft
over the Mat-Su Valleys will bring higher snow totals west of
Wasilla with 3-5 inches expected. Most of the Matanuska Valley
should remain downsloped and snow-free, although some flurries
are possible in areas like Palmer. On Wednesday overcast skies and
seasonal temperatures are expected as the trough moves through.

A frontal system is expected to impact Kodiak Island Wednesday
afternoon, bringing persistent precipitation to the area through
Thursday. Uncertainty still exists in the precipitation type.
Current thinking is that precipitation will switch over to rain
once the bulk of the front passes overhead Thursday afternoon;
however, the current cold airmass and ridge over the gulf may
remain in place long enough to keep precipitation as snow for the
duration of the event. Temperatures will likely be at or slightly
above freezing at the surface during the day, so lower end
accumulations of heavy, wet snow are expected. Stay tuned to the
forecast for further updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday
Afternoon through Thursday)...

Cold and dry through tomorrow as the upper level ridge sits near
Southwest Alaska with some mid and high level clouds moving across
the area.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a front will move into the Bering
Sea and bring light snow and increasing winds to the area with
most of the snow across the Kuskokwim Delta. Blowing snow may
become an issue mainly for Nunivak Island and along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. An advisory may be needed for blowing snow for
Wednesday continuing into Thursday as the front continues to bring
moisture onshore. Snowfall will range from 2 to 4 inches on
Wednesday and another 2 to 4 inches on Thursday mainly over the
Kuskokwim Delta. The Bristol Bay region will see little to no snow
accumulations Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Monday
Afternoon through Thursday)...

A very active pattern expected through this week as a series of
fronts and low pressure systems impact the Bering and Aleutians.

Tonight a weak front will continue to dissipate across the eastern
Bering and Aleutians with a few showers. Another front just west
of Adak is also weakening. A stronger front with storm force
winds will move across the western Aleutians and western Bering
tonight and then weaken Tuesday as its parent low moves into
Kamchatka.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday the upper level ridge will shift over
the northern Bering Sea near the Bering Strait while a large low
pressure system south of the Aleutians deepens. This will cause
the pressure gradient to increase Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday with widespread gales across most of the Bering and
Aleutians through Wednesday with pockets of storm force winds or
at least storm force gusts across the area. These winds will keep
freezing spray and areas of heavy freezing spray in the forecast
across the northern and eastern Bering especially between the
Pribilofs and St Matthew Island near areas where a lot of fishing
vessels have been reported. A front will approach the Aleutians
Wednesday with other weaker waves increasing chances of rain and
snow across the region.

By Thursday, the front will move into the southern Bering and
slowly move north and west as it crashes into the strong upper
level ridge near the Bering Strait. This will keep widespread
gales across most of the Bering with warmer air moving across the
Aleutians behind the front. Some pockets of storm force winds are
possible across the northern and eastern Bering Sea. Rain and
snow will persist across much of the area. A low may form along
the front Thursday near or south of the Pribilofs which could
enhance winds but model uncertainty on the evolution of this low
keeps forecast confidence low on this feature.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering Sea: Models are in good agreement with a deep North
Pacific low South of the Western Aleutians. Its front brings
widespread high end gale force winds covering the Bering Sea
through Sat. A new low center lifts towards Adak. There is some
uncertainty as to how significant this will affect the overall
wind fields as its front passes through the Bering. Wave heights
to 29 feet in the Western Bering through Fri, subsiding Sat. Waves
to 25 feet Pacific side of the Central Aleutians Sat.

Gulf of Alaska: Models are in good agreement with a strong front
over the Gulf. Widespread southeasterly gale force winds and waves
with high end gal force gusts move into the North Pacific through
Fri. Local areas of storm force winds through the Barren Islands
on Thu. Southeasterly small craft winds take over the Gulf Fri,
diminishing. Wave heights to 25 feet from the Barren Islands
southward, subsiding Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A cool and dry pattern is expected across Southcentral in the
extended period as the combination of upper level and surface high
pressure dominate the area. There is good ensemble agreement in
the forecast surface pressure showing higher pressure across the
Alaskan interior and lower pressure offshore in the Gulf and
Bering. This pressure pattern supports cold and dry offshore flow
across Southcentral. The cold air is expected to moderate more
across Southwest compared to Southcentral as an upper level wave
is expected to move northward across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta on Friday. This upper wave will result in southeasterly
850 mb winds which will ultimately advect warmer air into the
region. Precipitation type can be an issue in Friday's forecast
across Southwest, specifically in coastal locations along the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. With respect to the potential
tracks of storm systems, there is high confidence that the
Bering/Aleutians have the greatest chance of storm systems moving
into the area due to the upper ridging in place across the Alaskan
mainland. The upper ridge across the Alaskan mainland will allow
for North Pacific storms to move northeastward and enter the
Bering/Aleutians. There is good ensemble agreement in the surface
pressure fields that the lowest pressure will remain over the
Bering/Aleutians for this period. For the end of the extended
period, temperatures are expected to become colder across
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska as there is a hint at a pattern
shift with a weakening of the upper level ridging over the Alaskan
mainland as well as the development of an upper trough across the
Alaskan mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178 411.
		 Gale Warning 130 139 175-177 185 412 413.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 160 180 181 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/ED