Small Craft Advisory 1046, NWS Anchorage, AK

399 
FZAK51 PAFC 291302
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300200-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low at 59N 140W departs to the southeast through today. A 
1008 mb low forms 150 nm east of Kodiak City and tracks eastward 
across the Gulf on Thu. 

$$

PKZ119-300200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300200-
Resurrection Bay-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300200-
Prince William Sound-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300200-
Port Valdez-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300200-
Valdez Narrows-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300200-
Valdez Arm-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300200-
Passage Canal-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300200-
Barren Islands East-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt
becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300200-
Chiniak Bay-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300200-
Marmot Bay-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300200-
Shelikof Strait-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-300200-
Kachemak Bay-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

301 
FZAK51 PAFC 300007
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301315-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak ridge builds over the western Gulf through today. A 1008 
mb low forms on the east Gulf coast and tracks southeastward 
across the Gulf coast Thursday afternoon. A 1008 mb low develops 
at 390 nm southeast of Kodiak City Thursday afternoon and moves 
across the east Gulf coast Friday afternoon. A 993 mb low forms at
68 nm southwest of Middleton Island Friday morning and moves 17 
nm west of Middleton Island by Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301315-
Resurrection Bay-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301315-
Prince William Sound-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301315-
Port Valdez-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301315-
Valdez Narrows-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301315-
Valdez Arm-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301315-
Passage Canal-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301315-
Barren Islands East-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt
becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301315-
Chiniak Bay-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301315-
Marmot Bay-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301315-
Shelikof Strait-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
.THU...N wind 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt.
.MON...N wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ141-301315-
Kachemak Bay-
307 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft in the evening
subsiding 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large-scale pattern remains very similar to yesterday. An
amplified upper jet streak extends from the western Aleutians,
over the Bering Strait and through Southcentral. Likewise, a 500
mb ridge axis is seen from the Seward Peninsula southward to the
Alaska Peninsula. A deep fetch of moisture continues to ride the
top of the ridge, bringing scattered showers across portions of
the Aleutians and southwest mainland. Heavier rain is approaching
the Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay coasts as a front is tracking
across the eastern Bering. While freezing drizzle has tapered off
farther east across Southcentral, it will remain possible this
morning as sounding profiles remain mostly isothermal near 0C,
before widespread freezing rain will develop this afternoon. The
main area of moisture remains north of the Alaska Range. Chinook
winds have once again developed in Kodiak, increasing temperatures
to near 60.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic model agreement remains good. NAM shows slightly higher
QPF over the Kuskokwim Delta with the next front late Tuesday,
but otherwise there are no significant differences.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The forecast remains tricky, however VFR conditions are
expected to generally persist through this afternoon. Ceilings may
briefly fall to LIFR if fog over Cook Inlet moves over the
terminal. Confidence is high this afternoon for freezing rain and
minor ice accumulations are possible by late-evening. Light winds
will persist, becoming southeast after midnight potentially
gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

A strong short-wave trough lifting northward across the Bering
Sea will ride over-top of the ever-present and impressively
strong subtropical ridge this afternoon through tonight. It will
flatten the ridge and track due east across the southern half of
the state. The track looks just a touch farther north than some
previous models indicated. This means warm air advection ahead of
the short-wave will progress farther inland this afternoon. As a
result, freezing rain once again looks likely from Anchorage to
the Mat-Su, as far north as around Talkeetna. The heaviest
precipitation will be inland, from the Matanuska Valley to the
Susitna Valley and the northern Copper River Basin. Have hoisted
Winter Weather Advisories for the aforementioned freezing rain as
well as for snow in the northern Copper Basin. Cold air will
rapidly move in from the west as the short-wave crosses
Southcentral this evening through the overnight hours. The air
looks cold enough to change precipitation to all snow most places
before ending, but it will be a very quick shot of snow. Also, the
low levels will not be cold enough for dendritic snow crystal
growth. Thus, expect very little in the way of snow accumulation
for Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and the southern Susitna
Valley.

Meanwhile, balmy temperatures will persist down on Kodiak Island
underneath the ridge and with persistent westerly flow. It looks
like one more period of downslope winds is possible late this
afternoon through evening in Kodiak City as pressure gradients and
low level flow strengthen once again. However, this will be
short-lived as a cold front will then rapidly move through between
9 pm and midnight, colling low level temperatures and leading to
the more typical gap winds. This will bring an end to the multi-
day anomalously warm temperatures for Kodiak Island. The cold
front will cross all of Southcentral and the Gulf coastal waters.
Expect rapidly strengthening gap winds along the coast with
frontal passage. These winds will then gradually diminish
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

As we continue on to mid week, the subtropical ridge will not be
quite a strong or amplified as it has been over the Alaska
region. It will also begin to shift eastward across the North
Central Pacific. As a result, the next storm moving up across the
Aleutians into the Bering will not track as far north as previous
storms. An associated warm front will track to Kodiak Island
Wednesday through Thursday, bringing a return of rain to the
island and western Gulf. This warm front will lift slowly
northward across the Gulf and toward Southcentral Thursday night,
but will never make it to the Kenai Peninsula. Instead, the system
will occlude and a triple point low will likely form over the
northwest Gulf Thursday night. Precipitation will spread northward
across Southcentral, but it will be cold enough for all snow
except for perhaps right along the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today through
Wednesday night)...

The general pattern across the Southwest in the near term is
virtually stuck in stasis, namely owing to an extremely stubborn
Pacific ridge that continues to sit in place aloft. A pair of
systems moving out of the Bering will make some headway in eroding
the high pressure ridge over the next couple of days, with the
first arriving later this morning and spreading a new round of
precipitation across from west to east. A short period of wintry
mix is possible at the leading edge, but expect already very warm
temperatures hovering at just above freezing near the surface to
allow mostly rain to fall through most of today. Widespread fog
will continue for much of the area before the onset of
precipitation with the initial front, with misty/drizzly
conditions remaining possible as rain moves inland.

By this evening, the low moving into the Seward Peninsula will
send a cold front across the area from the west, ushering in a
cooler air mass that will change remaining precipitation over to
snow. However, it continues to look likely for all but the
Kuskokwim Mountains and western Alaska Range to dry out before the
cool air arrives, and little snow accumulation is expected away
from higher terrain. A short spell of overall quiet weather and
slightly more seasonable temperatures dropping back below freezing
is on tap for most of the day on Wednesday as a shortwave ridge
moves across. Even so, the potential for more low stratus and fog
will return as westerly winds subside and low level moisture from
earlier rainfall is trapped by an inversion forming under the
ridge moving back into place in the upper levels.

The second noteworthy system will begin to impact parts of the
area by Wednesday evening as a strong Bering low sends a front
across the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay. The somewhat
cooler air mass expected to be in place ahead of this front should
help slow it down on its southerly approach, and it's probable that
areas north of Dillingham and King Salmon will stay dry through
late Wednesday night. Mainly snow is expected for areas that do
get into the periphery of the frontal precip, although mixing with
rain or briefly freezing rain is possible towards the northern
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: This
afternoon through Thursday)...

A front will bring mainly rain and winds up to gale force across
the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs this morning as its parent low
moves out of the northern Bering and moves onshore over other
Seward Peninsula later this afternoon. A separate weak low and
attendant front will move into the Aleutian Chain tonight, sending
easterly winds just below gale force and another round of rain
across as it lifts north. The front will move north into the
central Bering on Wednesday, switching the preceding southwest
winds to more easterly. A much stronger system will begin to take
shape late in the day on Wednesday as an amplified upper shortwave
and associated surface low pressure move out of the North Pacific
into the Western Aleutians. This low will deepen as it enters the
western Bering Wednesday night, essentially strengthening the
pre-existing front and increasing easterly winds to gales over the
central Bering. Meanwhile, cold air wrapping into the maturing
low farther west will support stronger northwest winds increasing
to storm force along the Western Aleutians by early Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering...A North Pacific low tracks towards the Pribilofs
Thursday, then enters Southwest Alaska Friday. Winds will be
northerly across most of the Bering, peaking at high-end gales on
the backside of the low. Southerly small crafts are expected
ahead of the low. Starting Friday, a Kamchatka low brings
southerly gales as its front tracks into the Western and Central
Bering. Seas will be mostly 8-15 ft except 15-25 ft where gales
are expected.

Gulf of Alaska...Winds below small crafts and seas below 8 ft
persist through Thursday evening, when a low develops in the Gulf.
Expect widespread small crafts, with a gale-force barrier jet
along the northern Gulf Friday morning. As the low moves
southeast late Friday, cold outflow winds will develop with storm
force winds possible through Kamishak Gap. Seas 8 ft or lower
Thursday will increase to 15-25 ft by late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Friday through Monday)...

An upper-level trough moves across the Southern Mainland Friday
through Saturday. Its associated surface low and fronts will
bring widespread precipitation across Southwest Friday,
transitioning to showers late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation
is expected to begin early Friday in Southcentral, tapering off
by late Saturday evening. Currently, mixed precipitation or rain
look likely over Kodiak and parts of the Southwest as 850 mb
temperatures peak just above freezing. In Southcentral,
precipitation is likely to remain snow.

Once precipitation ends, cold and mostly dry conditions are
expected through Monday for the Southern Mainland. A low in the
Gulf and a highly amplified ridge in the Bering Sea will allow for
northerly cold air advection and gusty gap winds. As a front near
the Kamchatka Peninsula tracks eastward, it will bring rain
across the Aleutians Friday through Monday and push the ridge
eastward into the Southwest.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101 111 141 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 120 125 129-131 138 139 141 165 170 177
                       179 181 185 351 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KC