Small Craft Advisory 1034, NWS Anchorage, AK

442 
FZAK51 PAFC 260015
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261330-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will continue across the western Gulf. A weak low 
will the develop across the northern Gulf Sat morning and move 
into the eastern Gulf and weakens Sun morning. Another weak low
develops over the northern Gulf Sun afternoon and weakens as it
moves into eastern Gulf Sun night.

$$

PKZ119-261330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Along 
the coast, SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
building to 10 ft after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261330-
Resurrection Bay-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261330-
Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261330-
Port Valdez-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261330-
Valdez Narrows-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261330-
Valdez Arm-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261330-
Passage Canal-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261330-
Barren Islands East-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261330-
Chiniak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261330-
Marmot Bay-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261330-
Shelikof Strait-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the 
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
.MON...E wind 15 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt.
.WED...W wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-261330-
Kachemak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Inner bay, S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Outer bay, SW wind 10 kt 
increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in
the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft in the evening building to 10 
ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

605 
FZAK51 PAFC 261257
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270200-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure persists across the western Gulf. A weak low develops 
across the northern Gulf Sat night and moves into the eastern Gulf 
and weakens Sun night. Another weak low develops over the northern 
Gulf Sun afternoon and weakens as it moves into eastern Gulf Sun 
night.

$$

PKZ119-270200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N of Middleton Island, E wind 20 kt becoming N 20 kt 
late. Seas 5 ft. S of Middleton Island, W wind increasing to 35 kt. 
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270200-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming Variable 
mainly S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270200-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270200-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270200-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270200-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270200-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270200-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270200-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270200-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270200-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt early, becoming S during the morning 
and increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 
10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt, except S 20 kt N of Anchor Point. 
Seas 10 ft, except 5 ft N of Anchor Point.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 35 kt 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt.
.WED...W wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-270200-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 10 ft in the outer bay and to 6 ft in the 
inner bay.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge from a staunch high pressure system over the North
Pacific runs northward through the Southwest Coast, while a strong
front extends north across the Bering Sea. A couple of shortwaves
associated with the front enhances the continuity of steady light
rain over Adak and parts of central Aleutians into this
afternoon. Warm tropical moisture trailing the front combined with
the broad area of high pressure over the Aleutians/Bering
provides slightly warmer temperatures for much of the Aleutian
Chain peaking in the mid to upper 40s near Adak and Dutch Harbor
this afternoon. Over Southcentral, mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies persist except for isolated spots where low level
clouds/stratus lingers this afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough
extends from the eastern Gulf through the northern Gulf causing
the wind-flow to split from the north through the west- southwest
direction from Kodiak through Prince William Sound areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions continue to handle the synoptic patterns very well
and remain in excellent agreement through at least Thu morning.
Multiple shortwaves associated with Northwest Pacific lows in the
coming week will enhance the potential for steady rain over the
Aleutians and stronger winds/gusts for the Bering/Aleutians and
mostly Southwest Coast as the front approaches land. Challenges
with the forecast include the precipitation type and timing of
these episodes. Essentially, multiple advisory/warnings are
expected in the forecast through the Christmas holiday weekend
especially with the potential of freezing rain making its way
across the forecast region this weekend into the new week. The
forecast confidence is good.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist this evening, then potentially
transitioned to MVFR-VFR starting 09Z tonight (if not sooner) as
increased clouds fill Anchorage Bowl tonight. Light snowfall over
the terminal this evening through Christmas Day could lower
ceilings as well to MVFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

With an upper ridge moving east into Southcentral and the Gulf of
Alaska, winds along the coast will continue to diminish into
tonight. An embedded weak short wave will track across
Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska tonight into Saturday
providing a chance for light snow with accumulations generally
less than an inch.

Going through the holiday weekend, the forecast becomes much more
challenging but potentially impactful. The upper level ridge will
continue to nudge eastward with embedded, weak short wave troughs
aloft continuing to move across the area. Relatively warm, moist
air advecting above a cold surface airmass are expected to lead
to precipitation that will transition any snowfall into freezing
rain. Freezing rain accumulations may occur near Whittier and the
Portage Valley, north through Anchorage, and through the MatSu
Valley. Highest accumulations are expected through the Portage
Valley of up to four tenths of an inch. Confidence is high that
icy conditions will occur Sunday. However, more uncertainty
remains with exact locations and their storm total accumulations
through Monday morning for snow and ice, due to timing and nature
of this transition of precipitation type and thus the rate of
accumulation.

Given the current timing of the event, holiday travel on Sunday
leading into the Monday commute could become hazardous. Ice
accumulations on power lines could lead to outages and tree
branches could break.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Sunday night)...

A high amplitude ridge anchored over the far North Pacific has
its axis sliding eastward into Southwest this evening with an
upper level wave riding over top of the ridge. A surface low is
located over the western Bering with its front extending into the
northern Bering. The wave aloft is helping to push the front into
Southwest this evening. Initial precipitation with the front is
mostly snow, but as the air continues to warm at and above the
surface, there will be a quick transition to freezing rain
tonight. Ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are
possible for the lower Kuskokwim Valley and the interior areas of
Bristol Bay. Please see the Winter Weather Advisories for more
details. By Saturday morning, any freezing rain and snow will
finally switch to all rain from west to east as temperatures
continue to warm. Southwest will see a brief break from
precipitation Saturday night as the front moves inland and
dissipates. The break will be brief with another shortwave riding
over the ridge and into the interior early Sunday morning, with
rain likely over the northern Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. As the ridge axis slides east, rain will spread down to
the southeast, reaching Bristol Bay by mid-morning Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2:
Tonight through Sunday night)...

An upper level wave is riding over the top of the aforementioned
ridge across the central and eastern Aleutians and Bering.
Southerly flow along the backside of the ridge is pulling a
substantial amount of moisture and warm air into the area from the
Pacific. Thus, the predominant precipitation type for the Bering
and Aleutians continues to be rain as the wave passes through.
High end small craft to low end gale force winds are spread
primarily across the central Aleutians and over the southern
Bering. Rain and winds with this system will diminish late
tonight as the wave moves out of the region. Starting Saturday
morning, a new upper level wave will track from the North Pacific
and into the western Bering, bringing another round of rain and
widespread gales to the western and central Aleutians and
extending northward into the Pribilofs. Once again, temperatures
with this system are expected to remain well above freezing
through the weekend. By late Sunday cold air will begin to filter
into the western Bering, allowing storms to intensify. At this
time model agreement is poor but an area of gale to storm force
winds are likely in the Western Bering late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering...Multiple Northwest Pacific lows will bring gale force
winds and large seas between 15 to 22 ft across much of the
Bering/Aleutians through Wed night. A developing low passing near
the eastern Bering could potentially reinforce the wind gradient
over the south of Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians between
Tue night and Wed morning, causing winds to elevate to near
gales Wed night. Very strong gap winds could be felt along the
shores and bays of eastern Aleutians and parts of the Alaska
Peninsula from the latter system. Meanwhile, another deep North
Pacific low will steer gales and elevates seas across the
central/western Aleutians between Wed and Wed night.

Gulf of Alaska...A developing low from the eastern Bering could
potentially reinforce the wind gradient over the Gulf where an
existing low remain parked there for a day or two. Winds will
increase to gales and potentially storm-force with seas up to 20
ft or more. It's still too early to speculate winds higher than
gales for the Gulf next Wed, so will highlight gales for Wed
forecast and monitor this situation closely for future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8/Tuesday through
Friday)...

A ridge of high pressure from the North Pacific will continue to
secure its post across the forecast area through the long term,
leading upper lows and frontal systems either tracking north of
the State or forcing their path through the Gulf into the middle
of next week. With the onset of the lows combined with multiple
shortwaves trailing behind the upper troughs, increased snow and
rain/snow mixed are expected for the region. Although the
precipitation-type including the arrival time of the fronts could
be challenging, one thing for sure is that warm tropical moisture
combined with warm southwesterlies behind the fronts will at least
encourage light rain to pass through much of the Aleutians and the
Bering, including parts of the Alaska Peninsula.

Southcentral can expect a more variable weather pattern with cold
conditions at times with brief warm-ups along with occasional
snow with any system that passes through. At first glance, it
appears the weather pattern we have been in with freezing rain for
the Kenai Peninsula and snow for Anchorage on north and east
looks to potentially continue through this timeframe. However,
the exact details will be fine tuned over time and with
consecutive model runs. There is the potential for freezing rain
in Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley in the earlier day (or days)
of the long term.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...101 111 125 152 161
MARINE...170 173 174 175 176 177 179 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF/CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB