Small Craft Advisory 1025, NWS Anchorage, AK

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 230141
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231500-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1007 mb low 40 nm Northwest of Middleton Island exits the 
Southeast Gulf at 993 mb Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ119-231500-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable 10 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231500-
Resurrection Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231500-
Prince William Sound-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231500-
Port Valdez-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231500-
Valdez Narrows-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231500-
Valdez Arm-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231500-
Passage Canal-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts to
50 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231500-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231500-
Barren Islands East-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 50 kt during the evening. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231500-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231500-
Chiniak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231500-
Marmot Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231500-
Shelikof Strait-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231500-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231500-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after
midnight. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-231500-
Kachemak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W of Homer, SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming W 35 
kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening building to 13 ft. E of Homer, variable
wind less than 10 kt in the evening becoming W 25 kt. Seas 2 ft in 
the evening building to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W of Homer, W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. E of Homer, W wind 20
kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W of Homer, W wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. E of Homer, W wind 20
kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Behind yesterday's snowfall event that dropped up to 8 inches of
new snow across Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, quite a bit of
low level moisture remains trapped across these same areas. As
such, dense freezing fog has developed across the area. There will
be the typical moving back and forth of the fog but it's likely to
persist into the evening. Fog has also developed across Southwest
Alaska, though it's not quite as dense as in the Anchorage area.
Higher clouds are building into Southwest Alaska ahead of the next
storm system. The warm front associated with it will be moving
into Southwest Alaska tonight, causing a variety of precipitation
type issues in that area. Thus, Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect for that area.

Where the warm air has reached, which includes the Eastern and
Central Aleutians, temperatures have spiked to downright
Springlike levels, especially for the Winter Solstice, with both
Adak and Dutch Harbor in the 50s this afternoon. The warm front
extends from the Pribilofs west to the Kamchatka Peninsula, with
widespread rain occur

In the upper levels, a large upper level ridge extends over the
Eastern Bering, building into Southwest Alaska and is more or
less stationary across the central and western Bering. The ridging
is in response to the very warm air across the Bering underneath
the ridge. A 165 kt southerly jet is over the Western Aleutians,
and a separate 160 kt northwesterly jet is over the Copper River
Basin extending into the eastern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement on the placement of the
major features, with a large 1041 high well south of Sand Point
extending north into Bristol Bay by Thursday afternoon. Some
discrepancy exists with the low moving north to the west of the
high into the Western Aleutians, and there's good agreement on a
large surface trough extending along the Gulf coast into Prince
William Sound. The main points of uncertainty continue to be the
finer details of the forecast, including the timing of
precipitation type changes across Southwest Alaska tonight into
Wednesday and the longevity of the extensive fog across
Southcentral. Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR to LIFR conditions continue over the terminal into this
evening. The fog is widespread and there's no wind to scour it
out. It may move around locally, causing large fluctuations in
visibility with time, but should largely stay in place into this
evening. Around midnight, a 15 mph northerly wind at 1,500 feet
above the ground will develop, which should help to move some of
the fog, and should help to diminish its intensity, but nearly
calm winds near the surface around this time make this a low-
confidence forecast. Increasing middle and upper level cloud cover
Wednesday morning should disrupt the fog-development process,
which should allow ceilings to return to MVFR, with VFR visibility
returning. Snow showers may impact the terminal Wednesday
afternoon, but they are expected be light and intermittent and
will not result in prolonged lowering in visibility. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday afternoon)...

Dense fog that began this morning is expected to persist into
the evening through the Anchorage Bowl and Susitna Valley, with
periods of ebb and flow. Moisture from the Cook Inlet and Knik
Arm, as well as from recent snowfall, is being trapped under a
low-level inversion. However, light northeasterly winds are
helping to create some vertical mixing to dissipate the fog.
Elsewhere, the weather will remain mostly quiet tonight. With the
Gulf low moving southeast and out of the area, gusty gap winds
have subsided.

Late tonight and into early Wednesday morning, a front enters
Southcentral from a low in the Bering. After pushing past a ridge
of high pressure in the North Pacific and pushing across the
Alaska Range, the front will not be very strong or cohesive as it
tracks into Southcentral. Therefore, only light snow is expected
as the front tracks eastward across Southcentral Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday morning. Snow is expected
primarily along west-facing mountain slopes in the Mat-Su Valleys
and in the Copper River Basin. Some rain/snow mix or rain is
possible for the southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island due to
warm air intrusion before the front occludes. Otherwise, most
other areas of Southcentral will see little to no precipitation
with this event.

As precipitation subsides early Thursday morning, a surface low
forming in the Gulf will bring a resurgence of outflow and gap
winds for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fog and lowering cloud cover is occurring this evening as a warm
front approaches southwest Alaska. Light snow has already begun
along the coastline ahead of the warm front, tracking west to east
as the frontal boundary progresses eastward. Will see snow
transition to a freezing rain mix as the warm frontal boundary
approaches, and the increasingly warm air aloft works hard to
scour out the cold surface temperatures overnight tonight and
tomorrow morning. With little forcing apparent, and winds
generally strong within the snow growth layer, expect the snow to
liquid ratios to be low; further lowered by the presence of the
freezing rain mix. Behind the front, rain and snow will tapper
off, becoming increasingly light by sunset. Snow and ice
accumulations are expected to be advisory level; a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for this event. Highest snow totals will
occur across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

A brief period of dry conditions will follow in the wake of this
frontal passage, as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
southwest. The next disturbance will develop over the Bering and
ride along the northern periphery of the ridge, affecting the
region Friday with another wave of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The southern end of the low pressure system, bringing a brief
period of slightly warmer temperatures and possibilities of
freezing rain to southwest Alaska, will continue to press east,
with rainfall and gale force winds across the Aleutian Chain and
the Bering Sea tonight through tomorrow. While rain tapers off by
tomorrow evening, winds will hang on in its wake, finally
diminishing early Thursday morning. Calm winds will briefly take
hold for most of the day Thursday before the next system forms
over the North Pacific, riding the periphery of the ridge towards
the north and into the western Aleutian Islands and the Bering
Sea early Friday. Increasing winds and the next round of
precipitation will accompany this low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Friday through Sunday)...

Bering...Two well developed North Pacific lows track over the
Western Bering into the Russian Far East through Sunday. Widespread
gusty winds with areas of gales move across the Aleutians and
Bering, diminishing Saturday. Seas to 20 feet along the Pacific
side of the Aleutians, subsiding Saturday. The second North
Pacific low is stronger, with widespread high end gales and areas
of storm force winds over the Western and Central Bering for
Saturday and Sunday. Seas building to 28 feet on the Pacific side
of the Aleutians, and 23 feet over the Bering through Sunday.

Gulf of Alaska... Low pressure over the Eastern Gulf weakens with
a trough across the Northern Gulf through Sunday. Forecast
confidence is moderate with the rates of pressure changes over the
Gulf. Widespread gales extend from the Alaska Peninsula into the
Western Gulf, with the strongest winds over the Barren Island into
the Gulf, diminishing Saturday. Seas to 20 feet over the Western
Gulf, subsiding Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

A broad, stagnant Omega Blocking pattern is expected to dominate
the forecast area from west to east through the long term. The
center of the upper high will remain anchored over the central
North Pacific, while the ridge axis connected with the Omega Block
runs from the North Pacific through the eastern Aleutians/Bering
on Saturday before marching over Southwest Saturday night then
gradually reaching Southcentral between Monday night and Tuesday
morning. This could lead to warmer temperatures across Southwest
Alaska. Southcentral will be cooler with respect to temperature
than Southwest as Southcentral will be east of the ridge-axis and
thus allowing for northwesterly synoptic flow across the region.
Furthermore, strong subsidence east of the ridge-axis will allow
for mostly sunny skies by day and mostly clear skies and light
winds during the night. This will allow for cold nights across
Southcentral, especially in the Copper River Basin due to ideal
conditions for radiational cooling. That said, this is also a
pattern which can produce widespread foggy conditions due to the
subsidence. That may be the biggest forecast challenge in the
long-term period.

Warm southwesterlies across Southwest Alaska will enhance plumes
of moisture across the region. The precipitation-type remains a
forecast challenge as precipitation transits through Southwest. Warm
air advection will allow for a mix of precipitation-types. Chance
of rain could be favorable along the lower lying coastal areas
while the potential for chance of snow will be further inland
areas such as the lower Kuskokwim Valley and in the Kuskokwim and
Alaska Ranges.

Though global models share similar synoptic features for the long
term, clearly GFS and ECMWF display a lot of similarities
especially in keeping the ridge-axis in motion through
Southcentral by Tuesday. While GEM maintains a delayed forward
motion of the ridge throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 152, 155, 161.
		 Dense Fog Advisory 101, 145.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 127 129 130 132 138 139 141 170 173-179
181-185. Storm 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB