Small Craft Advisory 1022, NWS Anchorage, AK

064 
FZAK51 PAFC 211408
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220315-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 mb low 140 nm east of Middleton Island exits the southeast
Gulf at 996 mb tonight. Low pressure develops across the northern
Gulf Wed morning and moves to the southeast Gulf coast at 1000 mb
by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-220315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray near the Copper River
Delta.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 45 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220315-
Resurrection Bay-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt in the morning diminishing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220315-
Prince William Sound-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220315-
Port Valdez-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
55 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220315-
Valdez Narrows-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220315-
Valdez Arm-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220315-
Passage Canal-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 55 kt in the morning. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220315-
Barren Islands East-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 55 kt in the morning. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
S of Dangerous Cape, NW 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220315-
Chiniak Bay-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220315-
Marmot Bay-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220315-
Shelikof Strait-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.THU...W wind 25 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-220315-
Kachemak Bay-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

781 
FZAK51 PAFC 220112
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221430-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 mb low exits the Southeast Gulf for Wed morning. A weak 
trough extends across the northern Gulf through Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-221430-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 40 kt out of the Copper River Basin. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221430-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221430-
Resurrection Bay-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221430-
Prince William Sound-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221430-
Port Valdez-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221430-
Valdez Narrows-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221430-
Valdez Arm-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221430-
Passage Canal-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221430-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221430-
Barren Islands East-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221430-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221430-
Chiniak Bay-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221430-
Marmot Bay-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221430-
Shelikof Strait-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221430-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221430-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Areas of freezing fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-221430-
Kachemak Bay-
412 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

771 
FZAK51 PAFC 221254
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230200-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak trough extends across the northern Gulf through Thursday 
afternoon. A ridge of high pressure begins to build in the 
western Gulf by Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ119-230200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Gusts
to 30 kt out of the Copper RIver Basin in the morning. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Along the
coast, E wind 10 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming NW wind 45 kt. Seas
10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230200-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to
40 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft in the evening building to 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230200-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Gusts to
50 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt in the morning. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230200-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230200-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230200-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230200-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 8 
ft in the evening building to 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230200-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 9 
ft building to 17 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230200-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230200-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230200-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 7 
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-230200-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W of Homer, SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming W 35 
kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening building to 13 ft. E of Homer, variable
wind less than 10 kt in the evening becoming W 25 kt. Seas 2 ft in 
the evening building to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W of Homer, W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. E of Homer, W wind 30
kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 230141
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231500-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1007 mb low 40 nm Northwest of Middleton Island exits the 
Southeast Gulf at 993 mb Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ119-231500-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable 10 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231500-
Resurrection Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231500-
Prince William Sound-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231500-
Port Valdez-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231500-
Valdez Narrows-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231500-
Valdez Arm-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231500-
Passage Canal-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts to
50 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231500-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231500-
Barren Islands East-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 50 kt during the evening. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231500-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231500-
Chiniak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231500-
Marmot Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231500-
Shelikof Strait-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231500-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231500-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after
midnight. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-231500-
Kachemak Bay-
441 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W of Homer, SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming W 35 
kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening building to 13 ft. E of Homer, variable
wind less than 10 kt in the evening becoming W 25 kt. Seas 2 ft in 
the evening building to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W of Homer, W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. E of Homer, W wind 20
kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W of Homer, W wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. E of Homer, W wind 20
kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure is shifting its axis east toward the Al-
Can border. An impressive 140 to 160 kt jet streak at the 250 mb
level continues to run up and over the northern part of the ridge
and then turns back toward the southeast. Subsidence underneath
the ridge is helping to trap widespread stratus over Cook Inlet
through the Susitna Valley.

A strong surface low just east of Kamchatka is interacting with
the surface ridge over Southwest Alaska to bring in a strong
southwesterly flow for both the surface and aloft over most of the
Bering Sea which is increasing the amount of warm air flowing int
the region. Based on the CIMSS MIMIC imagery, a steady stream of
tropical moisture of 1-2" of precipitable water extends
northeastward to southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement overall as we head into the
middle of the week. The main issue is with some important
differences in temperatures aloft which will impact precipitation-
type, especially for the southern Kenai Peninsula. For the Bering
Sea and Aleutians models are coming into a better consensus with
the track and intensity of the low moving into the southwest
Bering Sea from the North Pacific. Therefore, forecast confidence
remains average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The main challenge this morning is the precipitation type.
Current thinking is that the terminal may see snow mixed with ice
pellets as the dominant precipitation. Colder air moves late this
afternoon and evening to change any mix to all snow. Expect MVFR
to IFR conditions to perish with light winds through the TAF
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Wednesday)...

The well-advertised storm system expected for much of Southcentral
today is on track. A period of light snow was already reported
overnight for locations along Cook Inlet and area radars are
beginning to show precipitation develop across the Susitna Valley
and southern Cook Inlet as of 5am. The precipitation is in advance
of a vigorous shortwave that is moving toward Southwest Alaska
this morning. As it does, and the ridge downstream slides farther
east, a developing southwesterly flow will advect more moisture as
will as warmer temperatures aloft.

The warm nose of air aloft looks to extend up Cook Inlet this
morning, with the potential for mixed precipitation (snow, sleet,
freezing rain) for parts of the western Kenai Peninsula through
Monday morning. There is still some uncertainty as to whether this
warm nose will make it over the Anchorage Bowl. Latest guidance
is trending colder, and that would lend to all snow across
Anchorage with perhaps an slight increase in snow totals,
especially for west Anchorage where an initial mix of
precipitation was favored. However, given the uncertainty, a
snow/sleet mix is in the forecast this morning changing quickly to
all snow by early afternoon.

Farther south, it still looks like enough warm air near the
surface works into the southern Kenai Peninsula for places like
Homer to see mainly rain from this event. Farther north,
precipitation will likely be all snow for the Mat-Su Valleys,
with the highest totals expected across the eastern half of the
Matanuska Valley ( up to 10 inches of snow) given the
southwesterly to northwesterly flow aloft through the duration of
the event.

The transition of winds aloft to a colder, more northwesterly flow
later this afternoon will also mean a cooling of the atmospheric
column and higher snowfall rates, especially for favored upslope
locations such as along the Glenn Highway around Eagle River and
the Anchorage Hillside. Again, upwards of 10 inches of snow is
expected for these locations through early Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere, 1 to 4 inches is possible for the western Kenai
Peninsula; 2 to 5 inches for the Susitna Valley; 4 to 8 for the
remainder of the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage Bowl.

By Monday afternoon, the snow spreads east as a surface low spins
up in the northern Gulf. Recent model runs are more bullish with
snow amounts for the Copper River Basin and around Valdez given
the moist southerly flow in the lower levels and the colder air
advecting from the north through the Monday evening and nighttime
hours. 4 to 8 inches of snow is now expected for the Copper River
Basin with 2 to 6 around Valdez and Thompson Pass.

This system exits the region by Tuesday morning. However, decent
cold air advection, trailing upper-level waves, and a stout jet
over the region will all work to produce gusty gap winds through
passes and along the coast. These winds will likely cause area of
blowing snow, with the potential for blizzard conditions through
Thompson Pass overnight Monday into Tuesday as the already fallen
snow gets resuspended by the wind. Blowing snow may also greatly
reduce visibility through Keystone Canyon and around Valdez at
times. Although these winds are expected to peak in intensity
by Tuesday afternoon, wind gusts will persist into Wednesday as
temperatures trend downward in the wake of the cold air
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday
through Wednesday)...

High pressure ridge axis previously over the Bering has shifted
east of the Alaska Peninsula this morning as a shortwave trough
rides over the top of the ridge. Satellite and radar reveal
morning areas of light rain and mist occurring over much of
Southwest, though this activity is forecast to gradually shift
east and into Southcentral over the course of the day. Of greater
interest is the development of a strong upper low over the Bering,
which is forecast to bring a shortwave trough into Southwest late
Tuesday. Despite temperatures having warmed to above freezing at
the surface with yesterday's warm front, the arrival of a cold
front will bring temperatures back below freezing tonight into
Tuesday morning.

This will set the stage for more snow and potential freezing rain
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Precipitation is expected to begin as snow and
then transition to a snow/freezing rain mix as temperatures aloft
begin to increase due to strong warm air advection. While much
uncertainty remains in the finer details, the highest snow amounts
may remain confined to the coast from Hooper Bay to Kipnuk where
6 inches are possible. Further inland, amounts of 3 to 5 inches
will be possible for locations from Bethel to Togiak. Freezing
rain may mix in with the snow at times promoting slick roads and
surfaces. As the shortwave trough continues east lighter snow
accumulations will be possible across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
into Wednesday.

Overall confidence in precipitation type for the snow/freezing
rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, decreases with southward
extent. The fly in the ointment remains the question of how much
warm air is pushed northward, which could easily make or break the
forecast. Therefore, have decided to wait on the issuance of any
advisory/watch products until confidence is higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday)...

A weak cold front is draped from the Aleutians northeastward
across the Pribilofs this morning. Scattered showers are noted
along the front though most locations across the Aleutians are
currently seeing more mist than rain along with widespread low
stratus. The cold front is forecast to push inland of the
Kuskokwim Coast later tonight. A shortwave trough is also noted
skirting east across the central Bering this morning. This feature
is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours as a surface
high makes its way just north of the Central Aleutians to Saint
Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. Before the shortwave weakens,
an area of gales and 20+ foot seas will accompany its movement
just north of the Pribilofs this afternoon.

On tap, a strong warm front is forecast to impact the Aleutian
Chain tonight into Tuesday. Gale to storm force easterly winds are
anticipated as the front lifts across the chain bringing heavy
rain to the region. East winds Tuesday morning will become
southerly during the day with elevated winds and gusts through the
gaps. The strength of the front and its parent low over the
western Bering will result in widespread small craft winds with a
large swath of gales over much of the Bering by Tuesday night.
Coverage of winds will continue to expand in area through
Wednesday, eventually reaching to Nunivak Island and the Alaska
Peninsula as winds change from a southerly to southwesterly
direction Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering/Aleutians...

There is a moderate degree of confidence overall in the 3-5 day
period. A low pressure system moving northeastward along the
Kamchatka Peninsula will make for areas of gale force
southwesterly winds across the western Bering/Aleutians on
Wednesday. There are discrepancies between guidance with respect
to how strong this low center will be, though there is a moderate
to high degree of confidence with respect to the track of this
system. Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Thursday and
Friday as winds will remain below gale force.

Gulf of Alaska...

There is a moderate to high degree of forecast confidence overall
for the 3-5 day period. Low pressure will continue to move away
from the area. The only area of uncertainty are the exact strength
of northwesterly gap winds around the Barren Islands region. As of
now, these winds are expected to at least reach gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

An Omega Blocking pattern will extend across the North Pacific for
the entirety of the extended period. The ridge-axis will remain
over Southwest Alaska which will make for warmer temperatures
across the area. Southcentral will be cooler due to broadscale
northwesterly flow from being east of the ridge-axis. This will
allow for mostly sunny skies during the day and clear skies with
light winds at night as a result of strong subsidence aloft.
Moreover, clear skies and light winds will allow for cold
nighttime low temperatures across Southcentral due to radiational
cooling. The predominant low track will be across the central
Bering/Aleutians through the Bering Strait/Seward Peninsula.
During the extended period there will be chances for precipitation
across Southwest as broad southwesterly flow will allow for
moisture to enter the region. The bulk of the precipitation will
be on Saturday and Sunday. One area of lower confidence is
precipitation type as ample amounts of warmer air will move in
aloft and result in a variation of precipitation types across
Southwest. For now, the greatest chance of rain will be along
coastal areas in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. The best
chance for snow will be in inland locations such as the lower Kuskokwim
Valley and in the Kuskokwim and Alaska Ranges.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101, 111, 121, 141.
   	     Winter Storm Watch: 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 131, 178.
		 Gale Warning: 120, 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 139, 141, 175-177,
						351, 352, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED