Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 1020, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 20, 2021

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 20, 2021, 10:27 AM AKST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 20, 2021, 10:27 AM AKST (19:27 UTC)
Expired
Dec 21, 2021, 4:00 AM AKST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

606 
FZAK52 PAFC 201927 RRA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...DELAYED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210800-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb low 190 nm north of Attu moves to 100 nm west of Nunivak
Island at 1015 mb this afternoon. This low weakens as it moves 
onshore tonight. A North Pacific low moves to 270 nm south of 
Shemya at 975 mb Tuesday morning and moves to 150 nm west of Attu
at 970 mb Tuesday afternoon. Its front moves across the Aleutians
and southern Bering Mon night through Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-210800-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210800-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210800-
Bristol Bay-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210800-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210800-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210800-
Unalaska Bay-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210800-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210800-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210800-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210800-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210800-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210800-
Adak to Kiska-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 12 ft building to 22 ft
after midnight. Pac side, seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210800-
Kiska to Attu-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 11 ft building to 18 ft
after midnight. Pac side, seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210800-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210800-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210800-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt.
.THU...S wind 20 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210800-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1027 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt increasing
to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$
1 follow-up statement
132 
FZAK52 PAFC 210025
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211300-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb North Pacific low moves across the Western Aleutians at 
985 mb Tue afternoon to Central Kamchatka at 967 mb Wed morning, 
then shifts to Northern Kamchatka at 982 mb by Wed afternoon. Its 
front moves into the Northern Bering by Wed afternoon. A 985 mb 
North Pacific low approaches the Western Aleutians Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes 
in the evening. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211300-
Bristol Bay-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain, snow and freezing 
rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt except 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt except 15 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211300-
Unalaska Bay-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming 
SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 23 
ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211300-
Adak to Kiska-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 50 kt. Bering side, seas 11 ft 
building to 18 ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side...24 ft Pacific side.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft Bering side... 23 ft Pacific
side.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211300-
Kiska to Attu-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain, snow and freezing 
rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain,
snow and freezing rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Rain, snow and freezing rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Rain, snow and freezing rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-211300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt
increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft. Rain, snow and freezing rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 20, 5:40 AM AKST, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 20, 5:40 AM AKST, 4 hours 47 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure is shifting its axis east toward the Al-
Can border. An impressive 140 to 160 kt jet streak at the 250 mb
level continues to run up and over the northern part of the ridge
and then turns back toward the southeast. Subsidence underneath
the ridge is helping to trap widespread stratus over Cook Inlet
through the Susitna Valley.

A strong surface low just east of Kamchatka is interacting with
the surface ridge over Southwest Alaska to bring in a strong
southwesterly flow for both the surface and aloft over most of the
Bering Sea which is increasing the amount of warm air flowing int
the region. Based on the CIMSS MIMIC imagery, a steady stream of
tropical moisture of 1-2" of precipitable water extends
northeastward to southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement overall as we head into the
middle of the week. The main issue is with some important
differences in temperatures aloft which will impact precipitation-
type, especially for the southern Kenai Peninsula. For the Bering
Sea and Aleutians models are coming into a better consensus with
the track and intensity of the low moving into the southwest
Bering Sea from the North Pacific. Therefore, forecast confidence
remains average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The main challenge this morning is the precipitation type.
Current thinking is that the terminal may see snow mixed with ice
pellets as the dominant precipitation. Colder air moves late this
afternoon and evening to change any mix to all snow. Expect MVFR
to IFR conditions to perish with light winds through the TAF
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Wednesday)...

The well-advertised storm system expected for much of Southcentral
today is on track. A period of light snow was already reported
overnight for locations along Cook Inlet and area radars are
beginning to show precipitation develop across the Susitna Valley
and southern Cook Inlet as of 5am. The precipitation is in advance
of a vigorous shortwave that is moving toward Southwest Alaska
this morning. As it does, and the ridge downstream slides farther
east, a developing southwesterly flow will advect more moisture as
will as warmer temperatures aloft.

The warm nose of air aloft looks to extend up Cook Inlet this
morning, with the potential for mixed precipitation (snow, sleet,
freezing rain) for parts of the western Kenai Peninsula through
Monday morning. There is still some uncertainty as to whether this
warm nose will make it over the Anchorage Bowl. Latest guidance
is trending colder, and that would lend to all snow across
Anchorage with perhaps an slight increase in snow totals,
especially for west Anchorage where an initial mix of
precipitation was favored. However, given the uncertainty, a
snow/sleet mix is in the forecast this morning changing quickly to
all snow by early afternoon.

Farther south, it still looks like enough warm air near the
surface works into the southern Kenai Peninsula for places like
Homer to see mainly rain from this event. Farther north,
precipitation will likely be all snow for the Mat-Su Valleys,
with the highest totals expected across the eastern half of the
Matanuska Valley ( up to 10 inches of snow) given the
southwesterly to northwesterly flow aloft through the duration of
the event.

The transition of winds aloft to a colder, more northwesterly flow
later this afternoon will also mean a cooling of the atmospheric
column and higher snowfall rates, especially for favored upslope
locations such as along the Glenn Highway around Eagle River and
the Anchorage Hillside. Again, upwards of 10 inches of snow is
expected for these locations through early Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere, 1 to 4 inches is possible for the western Kenai
Peninsula; 2 to 5 inches for the Susitna Valley; 4 to 8 for the
remainder of the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage Bowl.

By Monday afternoon, the snow spreads east as a surface low spins
up in the northern Gulf. Recent model runs are more bullish with
snow amounts for the Copper River Basin and around Valdez given
the moist southerly flow in the lower levels and the colder air
advecting from the north through the Monday evening and nighttime
hours. 4 to 8 inches of snow is now expected for the Copper River
Basin with 2 to 6 around Valdez and Thompson Pass.

This system exits the region by Tuesday morning. However, decent
cold air advection, trailing upper-level waves, and a stout jet
over the region will all work to produce gusty gap winds through
passes and along the coast. These winds will likely cause area of
blowing snow, with the potential for blizzard conditions through
Thompson Pass overnight Monday into Tuesday as the already fallen
snow gets resuspended by the wind. Blowing snow may also greatly
reduce visibility through Keystone Canyon and around Valdez at
times. Although these winds are expected to peak in intensity
by Tuesday afternoon, wind gusts will persist into Wednesday as
temperatures trend downward in the wake of the cold air
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday
through Wednesday)...

High pressure ridge axis previously over the Bering has shifted
east of the Alaska Peninsula this morning as a shortwave trough
rides over the top of the ridge. Satellite and radar reveal
morning areas of light rain and mist occurring over much of
Southwest, though this activity is forecast to gradually shift
east and into Southcentral over the course of the day. Of greater
interest is the development of a strong upper low over the Bering,
which is forecast to bring a shortwave trough into Southwest late
Tuesday. Despite temperatures having warmed to above freezing at
the surface with yesterday's warm front, the arrival of a cold
front will bring temperatures back below freezing tonight into
Tuesday morning.

This will set the stage for more snow and potential freezing rain
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Precipitation is expected to begin as snow and
then transition to a snow/freezing rain mix as temperatures aloft
begin to increase due to strong warm air advection. While much
uncertainty remains in the finer details, the highest snow amounts
may remain confined to the coast from Hooper Bay to Kipnuk where
6 inches are possible. Further inland, amounts of 3 to 5 inches
will be possible for locations from Bethel to Togiak. Freezing
rain may mix in with the snow at times promoting slick roads and
surfaces. As the shortwave trough continues east lighter snow
accumulations will be possible across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
into Wednesday.

Overall confidence in precipitation type for the snow/freezing
rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, decreases with southward
extent. The fly in the ointment remains the question of how much
warm air is pushed northward, which could easily make or break the
forecast. Therefore, have decided to wait on the issuance of any
advisory/watch products until confidence is higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday)...

A weak cold front is draped from the Aleutians northeastward
across the Pribilofs this morning. Scattered showers are noted
along the front though most locations across the Aleutians are
currently seeing more mist than rain along with widespread low
stratus. The cold front is forecast to push inland of the
Kuskokwim Coast later tonight. A shortwave trough is also noted
skirting east across the central Bering this morning. This feature
is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours as a surface
high makes its way just north of the Central Aleutians to Saint
Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. Before the shortwave weakens,
an area of gales and 20+ foot seas will accompany its movement
just north of the Pribilofs this afternoon.

On tap, a strong warm front is forecast to impact the Aleutian
Chain tonight into Tuesday. Gale to storm force easterly winds are
anticipated as the front lifts across the chain bringing heavy
rain to the region. East winds Tuesday morning will become
southerly during the day with elevated winds and gusts through the
gaps. The strength of the front and its parent low over the
western Bering will result in widespread small craft winds with a
large swath of gales over much of the Bering by Tuesday night.
Coverage of winds will continue to expand in area through
Wednesday, eventually reaching to Nunivak Island and the Alaska
Peninsula as winds change from a southerly to southwesterly
direction Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering/Aleutians...

There is a moderate degree of confidence overall in the 3-5 day
period. A low pressure system moving northeastward along the
Kamchatka Peninsula will make for areas of gale force
southwesterly winds across the western Bering/Aleutians on
Wednesday. There are discrepancies between guidance with respect
to how strong this low center will be, though there is a moderate
to high degree of confidence with respect to the track of this
system. Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Thursday and
Friday as winds will remain below gale force.

Gulf of Alaska...

There is a moderate to high degree of forecast confidence overall
for the 3-5 day period. Low pressure will continue to move away
from the area. The only area of uncertainty are the exact strength
of northwesterly gap winds around the Barren Islands region. As of
now, these winds are expected to at least reach gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

An Omega Blocking pattern will extend across the North Pacific for
the entirety of the extended period. The ridge-axis will remain
over Southwest Alaska which will make for warmer temperatures
across the area. Southcentral will be cooler due to broadscale
northwesterly flow from being east of the ridge-axis. This will
allow for mostly sunny skies during the day and clear skies with
light winds at night as a result of strong subsidence aloft.
Moreover, clear skies and light winds will allow for cold
nighttime low temperatures across Southcentral due to radiational
cooling. The predominant low track will be across the central
Bering/Aleutians through the Bering Strait/Seward Peninsula.
During the extended period there will be chances for precipitation
across Southwest as broad southwesterly flow will allow for
moisture to enter the region. The bulk of the precipitation will
be on Saturday and Sunday. One area of lower confidence is
precipitation type as ample amounts of warmer air will move in
aloft and result in a variation of precipitation types across
Southwest. For now, the greatest chance of rain will be along
coastal areas in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. The best
chance for snow will be in inland locations such as the lower Kuskokwim
Valley and in the Kuskokwim and Alaska Ranges.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101, 111, 121, 141.
   	     Winter Storm Watch: 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 131, 178.
		 Gale Warning: 120, 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 139, 141, 175-177,
						351, 352, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 20, 5:06 AM AKST, 5 hours 21 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

AKZ145-210300-
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
506 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SUSITNA VALLEY MONDAY...

Snow is expected to develop Monday morning across much of the
Susitna Valley. The snow is expected to start off as wet snow
before transitioning to a drier, more powdery snow by Monday
afternoon or evening. Snowfall rates are also expected to increase
late Monday, especially along the Parks Highway from Talkeetna
south to Willow, as a colder northwesterly flow develops.
Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 5
inches are possible. The highest amounts are expected along the
Parks Highway from Talkeetna south to Willow. Slow down and use
caution when traveling through these areas for the morning and
especially the evening commute Monday.

For the latest informations go to www.weather.gov/anchorage

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 19, 3:16 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC14 hr
Dec 19, 3:16 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC13 hr
Dec 19, 3:16 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC13 hr
Dec 19, 3:16 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC13 hr
Dec 19, 3:44 PM AKSTWinter Weather AdvisoryAFC35 hr
Dec 20, 5:03 AM AKSTWinter Storm WatchAFC11 hr
Dec 20, 10:26 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC19 hr
Dec 20, 10:26 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC4 days
Dec 20, 10:26 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC41 hr
Dec 20, 10:26 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC6 hr
Dec 20, 10:27 AM AKSTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC5 hr
Dec 20, 10:27 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC18 hr
Dec 20, 10:27 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC18 hr
Dec 20, 10:27 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC18 hr
Dec 20, 10:27 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC18 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.