Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

216 
FZAK52 PAFC 021231
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030130-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb complex low 140 nm southwest of Kipnuk moves into the 
North Pacific and weakens through this afternoon. A Kamchatka 
front moves over the western Aleutians and Bering by Wed morning 
then spreads into the central Aleutians by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt
increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030130-
Bristol Bay-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 30 kt becoming
NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft except 20 ft from Port Moller 
E. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
34 ft subsiding to 28 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 
ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030130-
Unalaska Bay-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030130-
Adak to Kiska-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030130-
Kiska to Attu-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-030130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt becoming E in the
afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt becoming SE 45
kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft building to 14 ft 
in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low over the Bering is producing hazardous
weather conditions across the Bering Sea and Aleutians. A strong
frontal system from the Bering low runs to Southwest Alaska
through Southcentral to the Gulf of Alaska. Colder environmental
air temperatures collaborating with the rapid moving front will
enhance more snow over the region this morning. Meanwhile, warmer
temperatures reported from the eastern Aleutians will keep precip
focused over that area south of Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models continue to stay in close agreement with the
placement and motion of the large scale weather pattern in the
next couple days. The solutions maintained an east-southeastward
trend for the Bering and it should not come as a surprised as
previous models suggested this similar track. Ultimately, the
Bering low and its frontal system will continue to provide
elevated weather conditions for the region through the next day or
two.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR to MVFR flight conditions are expected in response to
the front and possible heavy snow moving across Cook Inlet
through Anchorage this morning. MVFR ceiling will linger over
Anchorage Bowl tonight before the next sequence of snowfall
resumes around 02/1300Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Tuesday Night)...

A negatively tilted upper level trough, the leading front of a
strong Bering low, and plentiful moisture are all taking aim at
Southcentral this morning. As of this writing, the Kenai radar is
filling in nicely, with snow ongoing across the Western Kenai
Peninsula. The snow will continue filling in and moving
northeastward as a Gulf low develops along the front near Kodiak
Island this morning. As the low rapidly develops, it will track
south of Seward around midday and move to near the Copper River
Delta this evening. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow in the upper
levels will continue to stream Pacific moisture up Cook Inlet all
day today, until the trough passes this evening. The combination
of the low over the Gulf largely keeping downsloping a non-factor,
and the supportive lift ahead of the upper level trough will keep
steady snow falling all across Southcentral all day today.
Temperatures are starting out the day today largely in the teens
and 20s. Thus, the snow should be a powdery consistency. 3 to 6
inches of snow are likely for most areas, though with some
uncertainty as to what the snow ratios will be, there is potential
for localized accumulations over 6 inches. Since most of the
forcing for the snow should remain from Anchorage south, along
with more plentiful moisture closer to the Gulf, snowfall amounts
will diminish the further north you go.

Behind the storm tonight, the snow will end from west to east this
evening into tonight. Across the Gulf, the weather regime will
turn much more showery behind the storm. This will keep coastal
snow shower activity ongoing into Tuesday night. The chances of
those snow showers reaching inland will diminish with time. Below
normal temperatures will persist into midweek, though gradually
clearing skies are expected through midweek. A secondary surge of
colder air will move in late Tuesday night into Wednesday, which
should continue to dry the area out. Looking ahead, the next
chance of snow for interior areas, including Anchorage, isn't
until Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

The radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) have been
active overnight as the frontal boundary brings a fresh batch of
snow to the region. More snow and blowing snow is expected today
and tonight. A westerly fetch will develop later today for Bristol
Bay and it will persist for almost 24 hrs. The potential for
surging conditions along Bristol Bay is actively being monitored.
Tuesday late morning/ afternoon the main surface low will drop
southward across the Alaska Peninsula and then widespread
northerly winds will ensue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

The low in the Bering dove down to 942 mb and now is beginning to
fill. An 89 mph gust was measured at Shemya yesterday afternoon.
Additional hurricane force winds gusts were observed over night.
The surface low is moving across a data sparse area, but looking
at the models strong winds will continue today and tonight. By
midnight the surface low will have weakened to 968 mb-972 mb. Even
at that range the pressure gradient forces will still be strong.
Expect more adverse weather, enhanced seas and heavy freezing
spray for the Bering Sea is anticipated today and tonight. A
triple point low will form over the Bristol Bay/AKPEN region and
then move over Kodiak and away from the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering: Upper level disturbances move over the Central and
Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula. Forecast confidence is good.
Widespread high end gale force winds and waves will diminish Thu.
Waves to 20 feet subsiding. A well developed low and front move
across the Bering from the West through Fri. The front brings
widespread high end gale force winds with areas of storm force
winds to the Central Bering, diminishing late Thu, while the wind
wrapped low holds onto widespread gale force winds through Fri.
Waves building to 26 feet through Fri.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southern Gulf for Thu, with
outflow winds from the Alaska Peninsula right behind. Models vary,
but confidence is good. Widespread high end gale force winds and
waves spread from the Shumagin Islands to the Barren Islands into
the Western Gulf through Thu. Waves to 17 feet across the Southern
Gulf, subsiding. The next low and front approach the Southwest
Gulf Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Generally quiet weather is expected for the long term forecast
period, especially across Southcentral. The period is expected to
mainly be dominated by a strong upper level low over northeastern
Russia that will continue to send rounds of Arctic/Siberian air
across much of Alaska especially early on. Upper level ridging
will periodically build north and try to cut off this cold air as
storm systems move north into the Bering and along the eastern
periphery of the upper level low. As a result, a frontal system is
anticipated to move into Southwest Alaska on Thursday with some
snow. However, this front won't have much progress into
Southcentral as another lobe of cold air Will quickly try and push
across southern Alaska behind it. The front will be quickly
pushed southward across the Alaska Peninsula and into the North
Pacific. The main weather concerns for Southcentral will mainly be
the winds through the typical gaps, bays, and passes.
Temperatures are also expected to remain well below normal for at
least the first half of the forecast period with some warming
heading into Saturday and Sunday though remaining either slightly
below or near normal.

Towards the very end of the period on Sunday, models are keying
in on an upper level ridge setting up across much of southern
Alaska as the upper level low over northeastern Russia moves
southward into the western Bering bringing colder air to this area
and starting to bring milder air north into Southcentral. The
storm track looks to also become more active starting Sunday as
another system traverses the Bering and eventually into the Gulf
early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 187
		 Winter Weather Advisory 155
MARINE...Storm Warning 170 171 173-178
		 Gale Warning 119 120 131 132 136 150 155 165 172 179 180
					  185
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 150 160 165 179 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

AKZ161-021400-
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek,
and Pilot Point
333 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...BERING STORM WILL BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS TO BRISTOL BAY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A strong low currently centered in the northern Bering has created
a persistent westerly fetch across the southern and eastern Bering
waters. As the low center tracks southward and arrives over the
eastern Bering by early Tuesday, continued westerly winds will
create elevated water levels across the Bristol Bay coast.

Given the lack of shorefast ice in this area, water levels may
reach 2 to 4 feet above Mean Higher High Water (2 to 4 feet above
the normal highest tide line). Elevated water levels are possible
beginning tonight during high tide, and are expected to come back
down during the day on Tuesday.

For the latest information, visit weather.gov/Anchorage.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     SNOW             UPPER POTTER VALLEY     61.06N 149.76W
03/01/2021  M3.6 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 3.6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
            LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

MV