Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 91, NWS Anchorage, AK

872 
FZAK62 PAFC 051310 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060200-
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the central Aleutians and Bering moves into the eastern 
Bering and weakens by Sat morning. A 990 mb low associated  with a 
front over the western Bering this morning moves to 59N 175E by Sat 
morning and then moves into the northern Bering by Sat afternoon. A 
965 mb low moves to 60N 174E by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft. Heavy freezing spray
in the morning. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft building to 21 to
25 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 28 to 33 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft in the
afternoon. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 to 24 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

053 
FZAK62 PAFC 060040
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061545-
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

VENIAMINOF VOLCANO AT 56N 159W IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. 

A 994 mb low at 56N 166E moves into the Chukotsk Peninsula Sun 
afternoon. Its front moves into the Chukchi Sea with the trailing 
front moving into the Central Bering by Sun afternoon. Several 
waves of lower pressure follow this front through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-061545-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray north of 57N in the
evening.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061545-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Freezing spray
north of 58N in the evening.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061545-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Snow and
widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061545-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 11 to
16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong upper level low is centered over the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Its associated front is pushing inland over Southwest Alaska,
bringing blizzard conditions with snow, gusty winds, and reduced
visibility to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Across the interior
Bristol Bay area, snow is steadily moving inland as the front
moves east. Behind this front, showery westerly flow  For
Southcentral, patchy areas of fog this morning gave way to clear
skies. Some low level stratus continues to drift across the Copper
River Basin. Meanwhile, a decaying low over the Gulf of Alaska
continues to spin in place.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in generally good agreement for the short term.
There are still some discrepancies regarding the placement of the
low that develops along the front in the vicinity of Kodiak
Island. Beyond the near term, models remain consistent with the
arrival of a cold air mass filling in across the Bering this
weekend. Additionally, there is good agreement with the placement
and timing of an upper level wave moving across the state from
west to east this weekend. By early next week, model solutions
advertise an upper level ridge building over the mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Persistent low level stratus near the terminal has kept
ceilings LIFR. Expect improving conditions this afternoon. A front
arrives Friday morning; expect MVFR to IFR conditions with snow
showers across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Saturday)...

A cold and quiet pattern will come to an end by tonight into
Friday as a front and an embedded low center move in from the
west. This low will track just south of Kodiak Island, and this
will result in an enhanced band of snow along the front and just
north of the low center as it tracks from east to west. Models
continue to struggle with the evolution, strength and track of
the low, and this uncertain progression may impact the intensity
and duration of the snow event expected for tonight and tomorrow
over Kodiak Island. However, there is good confidence that
precipitation will fall as all snow with the low/front, and about
4 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected for especially southern and
eastern Kodiak Island from this evening through midday Saturday.
See the latest Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the area for
additional details.

Farther north, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will approach
Southcentral from the west from Friday to Saturday, and this will
induce an area of lift and southerly flow in the mid to upper
levels over the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys. In
the lower levels, cross-barrier, southeast flow will continue
near the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. These southeast winds will
converge with the more southerly flow closer to the Cook Inlet,
potentially leading to the development of a narrow but intense
band of snow that may develop along a north-south axis over the
western Kenai Peninsula to the Susitna Valley as soon as Friday
morning. Considerable uncertainty remains for where this band will
develop, and it may set up as far west as the western Mat Valley
and Anchorage or as far east as Kenai to the western Susitna
Valley. Several inches of snowfall are possible for the axis
where the heaviest snowfall develops from Friday morning to
Saturday morning, with generally 1-3 inches or lower outside the
heavier banding to the east and west. A Special Weather Statement
regarding the snowfall potential on Friday remains in effect this
evening for the western Kenai Peninsula. Several inches of
snowfall are also expected ahead of the front near and south of
Whittier and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula to Seward and Homer
from late tonight through Friday night, with the heaviest amounts
in the higher elevations of the Kenai Mountains.

By Saturday morning, colder air will begin to advect in from the
northwest just prior to the trough axis passage from the west.
This will push the remaining snow briefly across Anchorage and
then into the upper hillsides and Chugach foothills before ending
from west to east by midday Saturday. Cooler, clearer and quieter
conditions will return to most of area by Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded front is currently moving across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay, bringing snow to the area. The heaviest snow is
currently entering the Kuskokwim Valley and central Bristol Bay.
Snow has tapered off across Nunivak Island and the northwestern
Kuskokwim Delta and visibility has improved in this area. A
Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 6pm AKST this evening as
observations across the southwestern Kuskokwim Delta still show
spots with blowing snow and visibility at a quarter mile or less,
though visibility will rapidly improve this evening. The snow will
move into eastern Bristol Bay this evening and continue into
tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11pm
AKST for Bristol Bay due to blowing snow reducing visibility to
one half mile or less along the coast. Areas throughout the
interior of Bristol Bay are expected to see 3-6" of snow. The
Kuskokwim Valley is expected to see 3-5" of snow throughout this
evening and tonight. Winds will ease this evening and tonight
across the Kuskokwim Delta and late tonight across Bristol Bay
which will allow for improvement in visibility across the region.

Unsettled but generally benign weather will continue across
Southwest Alaska as brisk onshore flow continues over the next
couple of days. This will bring snow showers at times, though no
significant snow is expected. We are also monitoring the potential
for coastal flooding along coastal Bristol Bay and the northern
AKPEN on Friday afternoon as strong westerly winds and large long
period westerly swell move into Bristol Bay. As of now the chance
only looks to be marginal at best, though we will continue to
monitor and keep you well advised.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread gale force westerly winds continue throughout the
Bering/Aleutians with localized areas of storm force winds this
evening and tonight. ASCAT data shows these widespread gale force
winds as well as areas of storm force winds. This ASCAT data
confirms that the storm force winds in the boundary layer are
mixing down to the surface as a result of the cold air advection
behind the front that keeps the boundary layer coupled. These
winds will slightly ease on Friday from high end gale force to low
end storm force to low end gale force. Large long period swell
continues across the Bering Sea with the highest swell heights
reaching 30-35ft across the open waters of the central Bering Sea.
These widespread strong winds have ample fetch over the water to
generate this large long period swell. This swell will abate on
Friday, though remain between 20-25ft across the western and
central Bering Sea through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low tracks into Northwest Alaska
through Tue. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft
winds and waves with some areas of gale force winds move into the
Northern Bering Sun, diminishing Tue. Seas to 19 feet over the
Central Bering and Pacific side of the Aleutians subsides by Tue.
A new low and front moves across the Central Aleutians and Bering
through Tue. Seas 14 feet Tue.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Gulf late Sun. Forecast
confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves
diminish over the Gulf late Sun. Wave heights 12 feet subsiding. A
new low and front enter the Western Gulf Mon, moving to the
Central Gulf Tue. Widespread small craft winds spread across the
Gulf with the front. Areas of gale force winds with the low center
over the Barren Islands, Southern parts of Shelikof Strait and
around Sitkinak Tue. Waves building to 14 feet for late Mon into
Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

An Arctic/Siberian upper level low that has been in place across
eastern Russia for quite some time now will continue to remain in
place through the forecast period. However, the one difference is
that this upper level low will finally begin moving northward over
the Arctic Ocean by the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe.
An upper level ridge in place across much of the Alaska Mainland
early on in the forecast period will move off to the east and be
replaced with another blast of cold air. Although, this time the
air mass doesn't look to be as cold as the current one we are in
but still cold nonetheless. Overall, expect below normal
temperatures for the forecast period with Tuesday being the
closest to near normal temperatures before dropping back down yet
again. Precipitation-wise, a storm system is currently anticipated
to track from the Bering across Southwest Alaska and then through
Southcentral Monday through Tuesday time period with snow chances.
Another storm system is possible behind this one towards the end
of the forecast period bringing the potential for more unsettled
weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 161 171.
MARINE...Storm Warning 132 178 411 413.
		 Gale Warning 130 131 351 352 150-177 179 180 412 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180 185 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV