Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

027 
FZAK62 PAFC 190017
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191445-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 53N 167E will move to 54N 169E at 971 mb Tue 
afternoon. Its associated front moves across the Bering through 
Tue afternoon. A 992 mb low developing south of the Aleutians will
move to 57N 165W at 991 mb Tue afternoon then weaken and move 
inland Wed morning. A 970 mb low at 49N 179W Tue night will move 
to 56N 174W at 968 mb Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-191445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt after midnight
south of 57N. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 11 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW late. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

294 
FZAK62 PAFC 191247
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200200-
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low at 54N 167W moves to 58N 163E at 995 mb Tue night 
and dissipates as it moves inland Wed morning. A 972 mb low at 54N
168E moves to 55N 175E at 987 mb by Thu evening. Its front 
crosses the eastern Bering through Tue evening. A North Pacific 
low moves to 49N 178W at 973 mb Tue night and crosses the central 
Bering to 61N 173W at 978 mb by Thu morning.


$$

PKZ411-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 10 to
15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 58N and
east of 174W.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
18 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray north of 57N.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 6
to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 11 to 19 ft 
in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

702 
FZAK62 PAFC 200042
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201400-
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low at 57N 166W will move to 58N 163W tonight then 
weaken and move inland Wed morning. A 972 mb low at 55N 170E will 
move to 55N 174E at 987 mb Wed night. Its associated front moves 
across the eastern Bering through tonight. A 973 mb low at 46N 
179E will move to 64N 173W at 988 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 10 to
14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
18 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 6
to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level synoptic pattern continues as an active and highly
amplified pattern. The trough over the Bering Sea is elongated,
digging into the North Pacific, as it is squeezed between two
ridges, one over the western Aleutians and the other over mainland
Alaska into western Canada.

At the surface, a front associated with a low driving north across
the North Pacific, is nearing the southern Gulf of Alaska as seen
on satellite. Additionally, the front associated with a low off
of Kamchatka is currently stationed across the western Aleutians.
Both of these features are bringing an increase of wind and
precipitation to their respective areas. In between the two, cold
air advection is continuing northerly flow and snow showers across
the central and eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There will be two low centers for the system moving through the
Gulf and Southcentral tonight into Monday. While this has been
expected, a potentially significant change is that, over the past
2 runs, all models have switched from the stronger low moving up
Cook Inlet with a secondary one along the north Gulf coast, to
making the stronger low in the Gulf with the weaker one inland.
This will diminish the pressure gradient over Turnagain Arm to
less than previously anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Periods of light rain will persist into the evening but
ceilings and visibility should remain VFR with just a chance of
ceilings dropping to the 3500 to 5000 ft range. Gusty southeast
winds are expected to persist through the night over the terminal
and then diminish early morning. There may be some Low level wind
shear after these winds diminish as winds above the surface may
remain southeasterly for longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

Deep moist southerly flow continues out ahead of a potent upper
level shortwave that is moving northward through the Gulf of
Alaska. Out ahead of this upper level wave, plenty of warm air is
being pumped northward that is causing rain for the Anchorage
Bowl, Kenai Peninsula, and the Matanuska Valley. There are some
pockets of at freezing to about a degree below freezing air where
some ice pellets or light freezing rain may be being observed. Any
of this though is very localized and not expected to have much of
an impact as precipitation is very spotty and showery. Latest
observations at Ted Stevens International Airport have shown the
Turnagain Arm wind has made into the area. As a result,
temperatures have jumped up to around 40 degrees for west
Anchorage and even low 40s across the Anchorage Hillside. The
Matanuska Valley has generally 5-15 mph winds out of the northeast
but it is enough to keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as
well. Until the upper level shortwave over the Gulf of Alaska
passes through later tonight, the Turnagain Arm wind will stay in
Anchorage keeping temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 most
of the night. Some light rain may continue to affect Anchorage
through around 6 pm this evening before downsloping takes more of
an effect keeping most areas dry overnight.

Next, the well-advertised storm is on its way with the high clouds
already streaming into Kodiak at this time. Kodiak can basically
expected increasing winds and periods of rain starting around
midnight and continuing through the day Monday. This storm is
expected to bring widespread storm force winds especially Monday
morning for much of the Gulf with even an area of hurricane force
winds south of Cordova along the north Gulf Coast. 30 to 40 foot
waves are also expected as this storm system moves northward. As
this comes northward, there is expected to be a period of either
rain or snow or even rain/snow mix for the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl, and the Matanuska Valley early Monday morning. Due
to the uncertainty on the depth of cold air, kept snowfall amounts
below a 0.5 inch for many areas but if the atmosphere is able to
cool ever so slightly more this could be more snow with maybe more
than 1 inch, though unlikely. As the low approaches Seward Monday
afternoon, the flow is expected to be cross barrier causing the
normal areas to downslope until the upper level trough begins to
lift through late Monday/Monday evening bringing a possible burst
of snow to the aforementioned areas with a general inch or so from
this back end moisture.

The High Wind Warning for Anchorage has been cancelled with this
forecast package as winds are not expected to reach warning
criteria based on the latest storm track. Strong gusty winds are
still expected for Monday morning and afternoon but not expected
to hit warning levels. The Winter Storm Watches for Thompson Pass
and Turnagain Pass have also been cancelled this update. While
snow is expected, warning level snow is not expected with a
general 6 to 10 inches for Turnagain Pass and 18 to 24 inches for
Thompson Pass but over more than a 12 hour period. Winter Storm
Warning for the Copper River Basin remains on track as well as the
High Wind Warnings for Portage Valley and eastern Turnagain Arm,
and for the Cordova area. See products for more details.

Lastly, upper level ridging then builds in behind this for Tuesday
providing a brief respite before the next storm system moves into
the region from southwest of Kodiak Island. Also, cold air will be
slow to move in Monday night, therefore, temperatures were raised
some heading into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
Afternoon through Wednesday)..

The low over Bristol Bay will continue to weaken tonight as it
moves inland it will continue to produce areas of light snow with
accumulations less than 2 inches in most areas through tonight.
Additionally, blizzard conditions will linger through 6 pm with
gusty winds and snow ending tonight across Cold Bay and the King
Cove area. Our attention then turns to another low pressure
tracking from the North Pacific towards the AKPEN tonight and
tomorrow this will bring deformation zone snow and blowing snow to
parts of the AKPEN south of King Salmon from just south of Egegik
towards Pilot Point and Port Heiden where 6 to 8 inches of snow
is expected and visibilities near a half mile at times. We have
issued a winter weather advisory for this area from 3 am tonight
through 6 pm tomorrow. Elsewhere light snow will stretch across
Bristol Bay and the Kilbuck mountains where a few inches of snow
are expected. This low pressure system will move north with snow
ending across most areas by Tuesday morning. A ridge of high
pressure will move across the area Tuesday morning with patchy
fog expected mainly across the Kuskokwim Delta. Tuesday afternoon
and evening a front will move off the eastern Bering spreading
light snow across the area with an inch or two of snow expected.
As we head into Wednesday another front approaches late on
Wednesday with increasing winds and more snow possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
Afternoon through Wednesday)..

Broad troughing continues across the central Bering and Aleutians
with low level northerly flow producing widespread snow showers
across the region. However this trough will be forced north by
tomorrow as a gale force front with near storm force gusts moves
across the western Aleutians and Bering tonight and into the
central Aleutians and Bering tomorrow. This front will bring
periods of snow and blowing snow to the Aleutians tonight and
tomorrow. By Tuesday this front will weaken with a couple of low
pressure systems forming along it, the strongest low will form
between the Pribilofs and Bristol Bay with winds near Gale force
and enhanced precipitation. The other low will form in the
northwest fringe of the Bering Sea west of St Matthew Island.
Finally, a north Pacific low with gale to storm force winds will
track south of the Aleutians on Tuesday and move near the AKPEN
Tuesday afternoon, however still some model uncertainty with track
of this low. This low will increase winds across Pacific side of
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN but uncertainty exists on strength of
the winds. On Wednesday this low near the AKPEN will track into
the Gulf, while another north Pacific low near the western and
central Aleutians with gale to storm force winds tracks into
central Bering by Wednesday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on track
and strength of this storm, stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Wednesday through Friday...

Gulf of Alaska: There is no significant storm expected for the
Gulf except periods of gale conditions. Gales associated with the
next North Pacific low will stick around through early Wed morning
before tapering off around noon. The next episode of gales will
arrive Thu morning, ushered by a strong frontal boundary latched
to a deep storm over the Bering. This event is expected to be
short-lived. Hazardous seas are expected mainly near Kodiak waters
and south of Prince William Sound in the coming days. Hazardous
seas will be much higher for the first low, which could elevate
sea heights between 20 to 25 ft Wed morning, with seas reaching up
to 20 ft over the coastal area from Kodiak Island through the south
of Resurrection Bay in the early hours of Wed morning. Seas are
expected to subside to below 20 ft by noon. Large seas up to 18
ft will spread through the southwestern Gulf Thu morning. Seas
will gradually subside to 15 ft on Fri morning and trending
downward through the rest of Fri.

Aleutians/Bering: An intensifying North Pacific storm center will
generate seas up to 30 ft with occasional higher sets starting
Wed morning. The central Aleutians and Pribilof Islands lies in
the path of strongest winds and seas, and as the storm moves north
through Thu morning, sea heights will gradually subside to 15 ft
near the waters of Pribilof Islands on Thu morning. Essentially,
it'll be a very active forecast period in the first two days until
the low moves farther north of central Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7): Wednesday through Sunday...

Unsettled weather is expected over the Bering/Aleutians as two
separate North Pacific lows approach the area. Strong gales and
occasional higher gusts will spread over much of the Aleutians
through the forecast period. Warm temperatures are expected on the
Aleutians east of 170W and over much of Southwest, Southcentral
and the Gulf of Alaska through the long- term. For this, perhaps
rain will be mostly favorable as long as warm temperatures from
the coastal waters and warm southerly winds persist through the
week. A couple of shortwaves from two separate frontal boundaries
could increase sky cover and potential for more rain over the
forecast area. Overall, a very favorable progressive pattern will
persist through the long-term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NPW 125 135. WSW 141 181.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 119. STORMS 120 125 130 131 139 351 352.
GALES 128 132 136 137 140 150 155 160 165 175-178 180 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB