Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

131 
FZAK62 PAFC 271259
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280215-
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb Northwest Pacific low at 50N 161E moves to 58N 177W at
966 mb by Mon morning. Its front moves eastward across the 
Aleutians and Bering Sea, then enters inland by Sun night. 

$$

PKZ411-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SE 45 to 60 kt after 
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

333 
FZAK62 PAFC 280056
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281345-
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb at 49N 164E moves to 56N 169E at 943 mb Sun morning then
shifts to 58N 174W at 966 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front moves 
across the Aleutians and Bering into Southwest Alaska through Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight.
Freezing spray. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt becoming W 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 27 to 42 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 26 to 39 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft building to 8 to 16 ft after midnight.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 20 to 31 ft in the afternoon. Snow
and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 35 to 47 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 5 to 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15
to 23 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

627 
FZAK62 PAFC 281239
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010300-
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A deepening 962 mb low at 54N 
171E moves across the central Bering to 57N 167W at 975 mb by Tue 
morning. Its front moves across the Aleutians and Bering Sea into 
Southwest Alaska through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt becoming W 30 to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 27 to 42 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 26 to 39 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 20 to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 35 to 47 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15 to
23 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24 to 39
ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

166 
FZAK62 PAFC 010058
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011415-
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 942 mb low at 56N 170E moves to 56N 151W at 980 mb for Tue 
afternoon. Its front moves across the Bering and Southwest Alaska 
into the Gulf of Alaska through Tue afternoon. Several troughs 
move over the Bering by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt becoming W 45 to 60 kt after midnight.
Seas 28 to 43 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 
39 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 29 to 44 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 42 to 49 ft subsiding to 32 to 45
ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 13 to 28 ft after midnight.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad jet-stream with winds from 100-140 kt extends from the
central Aleutians through the Kuskokwim Mountains through
Southcentral Alaska this morning. Below this neutrally tilted
trough lies an adequate amount of moisture over eastern Bering
which brings persistent mix of light rain and snow over much of
Bristol Bay and parts of Kuskokwim Delta. Increased moisture from
the North Pacific low and its associated frontal system directly
points to the eastern Bering and toward the mainland.

Around the Cook Inlet and Turnagain Arm, a deck of low-level
clouds are moving north through Anchorage Bowl early this morning.
Over the Aleutians and Bering Sea, warm temperatures near surface from
mid-30s to lower-40 degrees Fahrenheit spreads across the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. A large frontal system over the
Bering will continue to bring steady rain over the Aleutians and
portions of the Alaska Peninsula today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

GFS and NAM share similar solutions especially for the placement
of the complex North Pacific low over the Bering today. Once the
low moves inland and across Southwest Alaska tonight through
Saturday afternoon, both GFS and NAM will begin to diverge around
Alaska Peninsula through the northern Gulf into the weekend. The
next strong frontal system linked to a steepening Northwest
Pacific low over the Bering is favorably tracked by the models.
These large scale features will elevate winds, seas and weather
over much of the region. The placement of the triple point is
agreeable among the models, so is the boundary of warmer
temperatures embedded with the warm fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low clouds and light snow will pass through the upper Cook
Inlet and Anchorage Bowl, which will keep flight conditions
between IFR and MVFR levels today into tonight. Also, directional
wind shear of 35 kt is expected between 1200-2000 ft by early
this evening for several hours. As the low from Southwest Alaska
moves close to Southcentral, the potential for southeast Turnagain
winds bending into Airport is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

Expect active weather across the region the next couple days, with
widespread snow this afternoon through Saturday night followed by
a return to colder temperatures. First off, a weak warm sitting
atop of a strong upper level ridge over the east Pacific will
approach Southcentral today, with warmer air overrunning the
Arctic air in place and leading to development of light snow. This
will be aided by a weak upper level wave rounding the top of the
ridge as well as a robust low level south to southwest flow. This
flow will enhance snowfall in the northern to eastern Susitna
Valley, though intensity will still generally remain light.

Next up, a weak low crossing the central Aleutians this morning
will track inland across Southwest Alaska tonight. This will push
a much stronger warm front northward toward Southcentral and cause
the low level winds (and upslope flow) to continue to strengthen.
A high amplitude trough will also make eastward progress, with a
strong jet streak and long fetch of tropical moisture streaming
northward toward southern Alaska. As a result, snowfall will
become widespread across Southcentral this evening and intensity
will increase, particularly for south to west facing mountain
slopes. The biggest beneficiary of the strong upslope flow will
be the Susitna Valley, west side of the Talkeetna Mountains, and
along the Alaska Range. Thus, have issued Winter Weather
Advisories for the Susitna Valley and along the Alaska Range in
the northern Copper River Basin zone.

The rain/snow line will lift northward to around the southern
Kenai Peninsula this afternoon and the rest of the north Gulf
coast tonight. Expect all snow (or nearly all snow) as you head
northward into Southcentral. The one complicating factor is the
impact of gap winds. As the surface low tracks to Southwest
Alaska, east-west pressure gradients will tighten over
Southcentral, leading to localized gap winds. Specifically, expect
winds to ramp up along Turnagain Arm and the upper hillside of
Anchorage. This will bring some locally warmer air up Turnagain
Arm, though the trajectory if this air is not very warm, so think
precipitation will remain in the form of snow. Normally, would
expect downslope drying with the low level southeast winds.
However, in this case, the southeast winds will largely be
relegated to the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while flow up the
western Kenai will be out of the south to south-southwest. As a
result, think the winds may cause localized downslope right on
the western slopes of the Chugach while it continues to snow as
you get farther west from the mountains. There is also the
question of whether the Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage,
as some computer models indicate. The low over Southwest Alaska
looks like it will stall over the Kuskokwim Valley, so pressure
gradients for bringing in the wind are marginal. If winds do make
it in, think they will be short-lived - though they could briefly
warm surface temperatures above freezing.

Any threat of winds and downsloping will come to an end by
Saturday afternoon as the upper trough moves into the Gulf and
leads to a transfer of energy from the Southwest Alaska low to a
new surface low over the northwest Gulf. Strong cold air advection
will then arrive from the west Saturday night. This will cause
snow to longer along the western sides of the mountains. This will
likely be the heaviest snow Anchorage sees out of this two day
event, especially along and close to the mountains. Snow will
gradually taper off from west to east Saturday night through
Sunday. The cold air advection will lead to strong winds across
the western Gulf and Kodiak Island beginning Saturday afternoon,
followed by strong gap winds across Southcentral Saturday night
into Sunday. Expect surface temperatures to fall Saturday night
and continue falling during the day Sunday as a frigid airmass
settles in across the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening warm front continues to push farther inland trough the
late morning hours across Southwest Alaska, which is keeping a
rain/snow mix over interior Bristol Bay, with snow across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. A second round of moisture moves over
the Southwest this afternoon associated with a North Pacific
system lifting northward. This will again keep mostly rain or a
rain/snow mix over the southern mainland, while areas farther
north will remain as snowfall with a few inches of accumulations
expected. As this system pushes farther east out of the region,
conditions become quieter and drier throughout the day on Saturday
as upper level ridging starts to build in. A blast of cold arctic
air on Saturday bringing temperatures in the single digits
stretched across the Southwest Mainland through the end of the
weekend.

The pattern quickly shifts on Sunday afternoon as a strong front
across the eastern Bering pushes over the coastal locations
throughout the day as the associated low approaches the Kuskokwim
Delta. Widespread snowfall will accompany this system throughout
the day on Sunday as the front spreads farther inland. Strong
gusty winds along coastal areas could lead to blowing snow
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather persists across the Bering and Aleutians over
the next few days. A North Pacific low over the central Aleutians
will move into the eastern Bering this afternoon, bringing
widespread rainfall and strong winds through the gaps along the
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Over the western Bering, a low keeps
gale force winds along the Aleutians as it progresses eastward
through Saturday afternoon.

A much strong storm approaches the western Aleutians and Bering
Saturday afternoon, which will bring sustained storm force winds
with hurricane force wind gusts. The strong winds persists through
Sunday as the front moves eastward crossing over the Pribilofs
and into the eastern Bering by Sunday afternoon. Expect widespread
rain across much of the region with this system. A strong jet and
cold air advection on the backside of the low will help to
intensify the storm force winds across the western Aleutians on
Sunday. However, there is the potential for sustained hurricane
force winds. There is still some uncertainty in whether the
strongest core of winds will move over Shemya or if they will keep
a more southern track.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering: A well developed low and front track across the Bering
through Tue. Model confidence is good. Widespread high end gale
force winds and waves with areas of storm force winds and possible
hurricane force gusts with the wind wrapped low and front as it
moves east, diminishing from the west Tue. Waves to 47 feet over
the Western Aleutians subsiding Mon, and to 40 feet over the
Bering for Mon, subsiding Tue.

Gulf of Alaska: A moves along the North Gulf Coast, with its
front over the Gulf through Tue. Model confidence is good.
Widespread gale force winds and waves with areas of gusty outflow
winds from Kachemak Bay and Barren Islands, Shelikof Strait and
the Gulf side of the Alaska Peninsula through Mon. A second front
moves into the Gulf with high end gale force winds through Tue.
Waves to 22 feet through the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term starts off on Monday with a ridge over the Alcan
border and a broad longwave trough from the Kamchatka Peninsula to
the AKPEN. This pattern is expected to amplify drastically over
the forecast period with a high amplitude ridge developing over
the Bering and a trough deepening over the north Pacific. On
Monday a strong, vertically stacked low is expected over the
central Bering with its front rapidly pushing east into
Southcentral. At this time models develop a triple point low near
Kodiak Island Monday morning. This broad storm system is expected
to bring widespread snow to most of the AOR, with cold
temperatures aloft even supporting snow over the Aleutian Chain
and Kodiak Island. By Tuesday night most of the mainland should
begin to clear out with cold northerly winds developing over
Southwest Alaska and onshore flow providing a chance for long
duration snow over the AKPen. Meanwhile, a large frontal system is
expected to make its way into the western Bering Wednesday
morning and move slowly to the east through Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141 145.
MARINE...Storm: 178.
Gale: 130 132 138 150 155 160 172-177 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/CJ