Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK62 PAFC 120035
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121445-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front extending from a Gulf of Alaska low spreads over the 
Eastern Bering through Wed afternoon. A 992 mb low at 52N 175W moves
along its front into the North Pacific and dissipates Tue morning. A
997 mb low complex near 59N 167E Tue morning moves to 50N 172W at 
1002 mb and dissipates Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-121445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. 
Widespread snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 121300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130145-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low in the western Gulf this morning will move into
Bristol Bay at 990 mb Wednesday morning. The low will gradually
weaken over Bristol Bay and dissipate by Thursday morning. A front
moves across the western and central Bering and Aleutians today. 

$$

PKZ411-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

301 
FZAK62 PAFC 130026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131415-
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front extending from a Gulf of Alaska low through the Central 
Bering dissipates Thu afternoon. A 998 mb low at 54N 171E moves 
along its front to 52N 179E at 1008 mb and dissipates Thu morning.
The front dissipates by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-131415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

940 
FZAK62 PAFC 131248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140200-
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low over Bristol Bay this morning will dissipate by
tonight. A 998 mb low at 60N 177E Thursday morning will move to
59N 177E at 991 mb Friday morning. A front will move across the
western Bering and Aleutians Friday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-140200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low moving north across the southern Gulf will turn westward and
head towards the southern tip of Kodiak Island. In this general
area, between the Shumagin Islands and the southern end of Kodiak
Island, the low will stay for the next several days. Thus, the
same pattern we have been seeing for the past couple days
continues for the next several. A front associated with the low is
making its way into the north Gulf Coast. This is increasing
precipitation intensity along the coast and especially across the
Kenai Mountains. A Backcountry Avalanche Warning remains in effect
until 6am Monday morning for the Western Chugach and Kenai
Mountains. The front is also keeping the winds gusty through the
Mat Valley as well as colder air in place across the Copper River
Basin drains down the Mat Valley. As has been the cast for several
days, very little if any of the coastal precipitation is making it
over the mountains and into the Cook Inlet Region thus far.

Much of the impactful action today has been along the Bering
Coast. Blizzard conditions have been steadily ongoing along the
northern Kuskokwim Delta coast since last night. This is likely
due to a combination of the wraparound flow north and west of the
Gulf low, ocean-effect snow, and strong winds resuspending already
fallen snow. Conditions are much calmer across nearly all of the
rest of Southwest Alaska, but a few showers are noted on radar at
times across Bristol Bay. The hazardous weather continues south
and westward from the Kuskokwim Delta coast through the Pribilofs,
AKPEN, and Eastern Aleutians. All of these areas have Winter
Weather Advisories in effect primarily for blowing snow reducing
visibilities to 1/2 mile, with lower visibilities at times. The
same low is responsible for the blowing snow as well, in
combination with a cold air mass from Siberia that has overspread
much of the Bering. Refer to the Southwest and Bering discussions
below for more.

In the upper levels, the pattern remains much the same, with
a longwave trough over nearly all of southern Alaska and the
Bering, an upper level low well south of Kodiak beginning to move
overhead of the surface low, and the roaring 200+ knot jet streak
stretching like a ribbon roughly along 40N from Japan to close to
the West Coast of the CONUS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model consistency remains excellent through Tuesday afternoon, in
no small part due to a very slow-changing weather pattern that has
persisted for several days and is expected to persist well into
the upcoming workweek. This makes the large scale forecast
confidence very high. As usual, any uncertainty is the result of
smaller-scale effects, such as the track, speed, and how strong
much smaller disturbances circulating around the Kodiak low move.
These have large impacts on the local scale weather near the
disturbance, but aren't doing anything to change the large-scale
weather pattern. Uncertainties include how far inland any Gulf
Coast moisture can move, how consistent the ongoing snow and
blowing snow will be across the eastern Bering, and temperature
patterns, which have been highly influenced by local scale winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.
There is an outside chance any shower activity from the east may
lead to brief reductions in visibility due to falling snow anytime
over the next several days, but they are not expected to be
persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2/Today
through Monday)...

An extensive upper level low remains parked over the Gulf just
south of Kodiak Island this afternoon, and the associated surface
low in the same vicinity has been producing up to gale force
winds as it moves ashore per recent buoy obs and ASCAT passes.
Bands of moderate mountain snow and coastal rain/snow mix are
continuing to feed into the northern Gulf coast with the most
intense banding following the low's front as it advects quickly
north this evening.

Models indicate relatively little change in the synoptic flow with
the upper low remaining nearly stationary over the AKPEN over the
next day or two. Behind the frontal passage this evening, several
smaller waves will continue to arc from southeast to northwest
across the Gulf and into Southcentral, each potentially producing
additional rounds of snowfall along windward slopes of the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains with predominantly rain mixed with snow
expected at the lowest elevations along the western Kenai
Peninsula and western PWS.

Meanwhile, higher elevations of the Seward highway could see
several additional inches of snow through Monday night,
particularly near Turnagain Pass. A Special Weather Statement
remains in effect through Tuesday for this continued threat for
additional rounds of snow. Additionally, the boundary layer
behind the front moving inland tonight will be quite unstable, and
this will add to the showery but briefly heavy nature of continued
snow showers. The instability over the Gulf may also be enough
to yield occasional lightning strikes in the most potent showers
as they race northward and weaken as they move ashore. A few snow
showers may make it into the Anchorage bowl through Monday, but
downslope flow should be strong enough to prevent any accumulating
snow from reaching much beyond the higher elevations across the
Chugach front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A tight pressure gradient across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast is
creating blizzard conditions for the western coastal communities
of the Kuskokwim Delta (i.e. Chevak, Hooper Bay, and Toksook Bay).
This tight pressure gradient will remain in place through Monday
morning due to the rather stagnant pattern in place with low
pressure near Kodiak Island and higher pressure to the northwest.
As a result, a Blizzard Warning was issued earlier today for
blowing snow and reductions in visibility to one quarter mile. The
warning remains in place through 6 AM Monday morning, though,
this could be extended if the conditions persist. Conditions are
expected to improve early Monday morning with improving
visibilities but winds are expected to remain gusty upwards of 20
to 30 mph throughout the day on Monday. At the very least, this
may be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning as a piece of upper level energy
pushes through the area with some light snow. Any light snow may
be accompanied by gusty winds still which may cause reductions in
visibility. Just how much reduction remains uncertain at this
time.

Across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay, a relatively
benign pattern remains in place as deep southeasterly flow
continues for the next three days. As a result, the typical
downslope areas will remain dry with only the windward side of the
Kuskokwim Mountains experiencing any precipitation. Dillingham has
the potential to see a few flurries or a snow shower Monday
afternoon into the early evening as an upper level shortwave
pushes through. A second more potent piece of upper level energy
is anticipated to move through Bristol Bay late Monday night into
Tuesday morning with the chance for more snow. Any snow
accumulation is expected to remain light.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the main upper level low and
associated surface low is expected to move across the Alaska Range
while dissipating. However, even though it will be dissipating,
leftover energy will aid in the development of more widespread
snow shower activity than the days prior. Any snow accumulations
at this time are expected to be little to none.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A very active pattern is in place for the Bering Sea and the
Aleutian Chain for the next three days. Cold northerly flow moving
over relatively warm water of the Bering Sea will create an
unstable atmosphere that will aid in the development of snow
showers/squalls each day. Along with the snow showers/squalls,
small crafts and gale force winds are expected across much of the
central and eastern Bering Sea including the Pribilofs. Any gale
force winds are expected to subside by Tuesday afternoon. Expect
strong gusty winds out of the typical gaps and passes east and
west of Dutch Harbor as well especially tonight through Monday
night. Gusts out of the bays and passes may reach as high as 50
knots or 55 mph. Wave heights are expected to reach 18 to 22 feet
north of Dutch Harbor due to the persistent northerly flow. In
addition to the winds, A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for the Pribilof Islands from now through 9 PM Monday evening for
blowing snow and visibility reduced to one half mile. On and off
snow showers are expected from now through 9 PM this evening.
After 9 PM, a more steady band of generally light snow is expected
to develop and remain nearly stationary for 24 hours, although,
latest guidance shows this could linger on for the next three days
with similar conditions. Stay tuned to see if this advisory gets
extended in subsequent updates.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Dutch Harbor beginning
1 AM Monday and continuing through 1 AM Tuesday for blowing snow
and visibility reduced to one half mile. On and off snow showers
will continue for the next several hours before the peak of the
event begins overnight with the steadier band of snow occurring
with the stronger winds. With this pattern remaining in place for
the next several days, this advisory may be extended.

A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect for Cold Bay/Nelson
Lagoon from now through 6 AM Monday morning for blowing snow with
visibility reduced to one half mile. See advisory for more
details. The peak of the event for the eastern Aleutians is
expected from now through Monday morning when winds will begin to
gradually subside though snow showers are expected to continue
throughout the next three days as a similar pattern remains.

Lastly, a rather potent polar low currently over the western
Bering will move southeastward and may bring strong gusty winds
and blowing snow to Adak and nearby areas between Monday night and
Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Wed through Fri)...

Gulf of Alaska: Model track and development continues to be
mixed, confidence is fair through Fri. Lingering northeast small
craft winds from Cook Inlet through Shelikof Strait diminish early
Thu. The low settles over the northern Alaska Peninsula with its
front across the Gulf through Fri. Widespread southwest small
craft winds spread over the Gulf becoming southeast and moving
into the eastern Gulf Thu. A low late Thu brings easterly gale
force winds over the eastern Gulf Fri, increasing wave heights
across the Gulf to 25 feet for Fri.

Bering Sea: Model track and development continues to be mixed,
but confidence is fair through Fri. Western Aleutian-Bering high
pressure pushes against the southwest Alaska low. Widespread
northerly small craft winds and waves move through the central
Bering and diminishing early Thu. Local wave heights in the
Western and Eastern Bering locally to 14 feet subsiding Thursday.
A new North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians for Thu
and Fri, moving east to the south of the Aleutians. The Gulf of
Alaska low spreads waves to 25 feet to the Alaska Peninsula coast
for Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term starts with high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska
and weak low pressure in Bristol Bay. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
in agreement of this setup so confidence is high going into late
this week. This weather setup means quiet weather for Southcentral
AK and much of the Bering. Weather should be quiet for interior
southwest AK as well. Unsettled weather is expected for the AKPEN
and along the Southwest coast, but due to the weak nature of the
low it should not be very impactful. Going into the weekend,
differences then emerge between models in the movement and
strength of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Both the
GFS and ECMWF have a low moving into the Gulf early Friday.
However, the ECMWF keeps a stronger low and pushes it inland to
Southcentral AK. The GFS weakens the low as it moves north and
keeps it offshore. This would make for a substantial difference in
the weather, depending on what solution plays out. So, confidence
drops to low to moderate for Southcentral AK going into the
weekend. Confidence for the Bering is a little higher as there is
agreement in weak low pressure there. Overall, quiet for most
areas midweek with active weather going into the weekend, the
question is what the weather will be.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW zones 155 181 185 and 195.
MARINE...Gales 119 130 131 138 139 155 165 170-174 178-181 185
411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM/AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/BJB