Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

576 
FZAK52 PAFC 201308
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210200-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 50 nm south of Adak will move to 50 nm north of St
Matthew Island at 977 mb by Thu morning as it exits into the 
northern Bering. Its front crosses the Eastern Aleutians and 
Alaska Peninsula through Thu morning. A 977 mb low 120 nm 
northwest of Attu moves to 130 nm north of Shemya at 988 mb Thu 
morning before weakening. A low with multiple centers moves to 230
nm south of Adak at 980 mb Thu afternoon then to 40 nm north of 
Atka by Fri morning.


$$

PKZ150-210200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 30 kt
increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210200-
Bristol Bay-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt
increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210200-
Unalaska Bay-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 26 ft
subsiding to 20 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
26 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft 
subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210200-
Adak to Kiska-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
Bering side...23 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft Bering side... 18 ft Pac side.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210200-
Kiska to Attu-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-210200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon.  Patchy
freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.THU...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
408 AM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

072 
FZAK52 PAFC 210044
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211345-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 200 nm southwest of St Paul Island will exit through
the Gulf of Anadyr at 998 mb Fri morning. Its front moves into 
Western Alaska Thu afternoon. A 970 mb North Pacific low moves to 
200 nm southwest of St Paul Island at 989 mb Fri afternoon. Its 
front moves over the Aleutians Thu afternoon into the Northern 
Bering by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211345-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211345-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 26
ft subsiding to 20 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 23
ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
26 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211345-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft Bering side...18 ft Pac side.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211345-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.  Rain
showers and snow showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-211345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.THU...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-211345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weakening low continues to slowly drift inland over Southcentral
this morning as it brings diminishing areas of mixed
precipitation towards the back side of the system, or across
portions of the Mat-Su Valleys and eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Despite low level flow clearly becoming more southwesterly in the
12z Anchorage sounding, a residual warm layer in the lowest 1000
ft has clung to life just enough to keep precip type near sea
level a rain/snow mix for much of the early morning. Despite the
expectation for a cooler air mass to continue to push into the
area today, it appears the lower atmosphere will dry out prior to
what would be a full transition to snow down to the lowest
elevations, and any new snowfall in the immediate Anchorage area
this morning should remain quite on the light side.

Elsewhere, snow has continued to fall at a good pace across
southwestern portions of the Copper River Basin and in the eastern
Chugach Mountains north of PWS. However, the snowfall event for
the region is also in the process of winding down, and conditions
by and large should improve across the area through the course of
the day as the low center quickly fills and shears out. The next
system of interest for Southcentral is clearly defined on
infrared and water vapor imagery as a potent closed low and
attendant upper shortwave marching quickly northeastward,
currently situated to the south of the Eastern Aleutians in the
North Pacific. Out west, a front extends across the central Bering
from a long-occluded low west of Attu Island with plenty of
marine instability fueling scattered convective snow showers
behind the boundary over the far western Bering and Aleutian
chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement with most synoptic features
through mid to late week. Some discrepancies persist with the low
expected to cross over Kodiak Island Tues night into Wed morning.
While all models show the low quickly weakening by Wed, the track
of the remnant surface low as it continues north/east from Kodiak
differs, with the EC taking the center into the southern Kenai
Peninsula and the GFS pulling the low well out into the central
Gulf. NAM and most hi-res guidance work as a good middle ground
for this package with the low remaining just offshore prior to
dissipation Wed night. Issues with precip type will also become a
forecast challenge across the Southwest going into Thurs as a
front associated with a Bering low moves onshore and as ridging
builds into the mainland. Models still differ somewhat on the
degree of warming with the expected surge of southerly flow late
Wed to Thurs across the AKPEN and Southwest interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Precipitation will continue to let up with a continued mix
of rain and snow ending very early this morning. Occasional MVFR
to briefly IFR conditions with any lingering rain/snow showers
remain possible before precipitation clears, but should be
generally seeing improvement to VFR visibility and MVFR ceilings
within the first couple hours of the period. Ceilings should also
continue rising up to to VFR by midday. Light south winds will
persist throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday Night)...

As the storm that brought the record setting rain to Southcentral
finally winds down, expect a bit of sunshine for the Cook Inlet
region later on this afternoon as the low dissipates. In the
meantime, lingering rain and snow continue from Anchorage north
into the Valley, which will slowly end from southwest to
northeast, but may persist up in the Valley for much of the
morning. A rain/snow mix in Cordova this morning will also
diminish in intensity. Meanwhile, the heavy snow has been very
persistent along the portions of the Glenn and Richardson Highways
in the Copper River Basin where the Winter Storm Warning will
expire at 6am. While the heaviest of the snow will be over by
then, expect lingering snow to persist into this afternoon before
dissipating.

The break in the weather will be very brief along the coast, as
the next low moves in from the southwest tonight. As mentioned in
previous discussions, this low will be nowhere near as strong or
impactful for Southcentral as the one ending currently. In
addition to tonight's storm being much weaker, it will track
parallel to the coast instead of into the coast, and won't have
nearly as much moisture to work with. As a result, another round
of coastal rain and mountain snow/mix will move up the coast
tonight, with up to a foot of new snow at higher elevations and
much less than that at road level. This storm may also be a
shade cooler, which should help to bring snow levels down, but
temperatures close to freezing still means the snow will be a
heavy, wet consistency, which will not accumulate quickly. The
easterly flow will also get snowfall rates going up across the
western Susitna Valley due to upslope. A small bit of this upslope
may impact the far western Kenai Peninsula, including along the
Sterling Highway from Kenai to Anchor Point, but is not expected
to amount to much. Associated precipitation with this low will end
from west to east during the day on Wednesday. Lingering upslope
easterly flow may keep some snow shower activity into the eastern
Kenai mountains around Whittier into Wednesday night.

Unfortunately, the next front follows very quickly on the heels
of this low starting Wednesday night in Kodiak. This front will be
different from either of the two aforementioned lows because it
looks to stall around Kodiak and the western Kenai Peninsula for
most of the day Thursday. Warm southerly flow will keep precip all
rain in Kodiak through Wednesday night. There is some discrepancy
as to how far east the associated precipitation gets, but by
Thursday morning most of the coastal Kenai Peninsula should be
getting rain or mountain snow. The precipitation should also
invade well up into the Susitna Valley as well, which should all
fall as snow. A secondary disturbance tries to move the front a
bit further east Thursday night, expanding the precipitation along
the mountains of Prince William Sound. The Chugach and Kenai
mountains should prevent most of that precipitation from affecting
Anchorage and the Mat Valley, as well as the Copper River Basin.
These areas can expect cloudy conditions through Thursday night
with temperatures remaining well above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A fairly complex weather pattern is expected across Southwest
Alaska over the next couple of days. The pattern will have a quiet
start today as offshore flow continues to bring cold and dry
weather to the area. The main feature during the forecast period
is a low pressure system moving northeast across the Bering Sea
into Southwest Alaska. The current low track is projected to take
the center of the low to the northwest of the area, thus putting
the Southwest on the southeastern flank of the storm. This will
make precipitation type a concern. As of now, there is low
confidence in the precipitation type forecast as there is a large
spread in forecast vertical profiles across Southwest Alaska.
However, there is confidence that the precipitation type will not
be all snow. There is a concern for freezing rain potential as
there is a very cold airmass in place at the moment and the warm
air advection will create temperature inversions across the area
during the time of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An active weather pattern will continue across the
Bering/Aleutians over the next couple of days as a storm system
moves northeastward across the central Aleutians into the Bering
Sea. This storm will bring widespread gale force winds with a
smaller area of storm force winds on the southeastern flank
Wednesday morning through Thursday night. This storm is expected
to also produce large seas in excess of 20ft. These seas will be
moderate to long in period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Thursday through Saturday...

Gulf of Alaska: A trough extending across the Northern Gulf
deepens into a low south of Cordova by Sat. While model tracks and
development vary, confidence is good for southerly small craft
winds and waves with local gale force gusts to spread over the
Gulf through Sat. The higher winds extend around Kodiak Island and
through the Barren Islands for Thu and Fri. Winds become westerly
small craft level across the Southern Gulf with wave heights from
15 to 17 feet spread over the Southern Gulf through Sat.

Aleutians/Bering: A well-developed low near St Matthew Island
moves northward through the period. A North Pacific low moves into
the Eastern Bering by Sat. Model tracks and development are
mixed, with fair confidence through the period. Widespread small
craft winds and waves with locally strong gale force gusts wrap
the Northern Bering low, diminishing late Fri. Waves to 18 feet
around the Pribilofs diminishing with this low. The second low
brings southerly small craft winds along the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Winds become westerly over the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula and remain southerly in the west. Wave heights
south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula to 18 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7): Friday through Monday...

A warming trend will continue late this week into the weekend as a
front continues to move over the Alaska mainland. A front
spreading across the Southwest will bring mostly rain to the
region, becoming more showery in nature through Saturday. This
system will continue into Southcentral Alaska and then start to
clear out on Sunday.

Another low pressure system will enter the western Bering and
Aleutians late Saturday, which will bring another round of
widespread precipitation and strong winds across the area. The
associated front will reach the Southwest coast between Sunday and
Monday, while areas farther inland and across Southcentral will
remain dry to start the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray: 412,414,160,180.
Storm Warning: 170, 173-176.
Gale Warning: 351,352,120,130,131,132,138,139,412-414,150,155,160,
165,171,172,177-179,180,185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/AH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
248 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     SNOW             1 SSE SUTTON            61.71N 148.87W
01/19/2021  M5.8 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ENDED AROUND 12:30PM TODAY. UNKNOWN HOW
            LONG THE SNOW LASTED.

&&

CJ