Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 210, NWS Anchorage, AK

762 
FZAK51 PAFC 060654 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-061915-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1022 mb low 140 nm south of Homer will move northeastward and 
over the Kenai Peninsula this evening. A 982 mb low develops along
the front near Kodiak Monday afternoon and moves to 60 NM south 
of Seward Tuesday morning at 981 mb.

$$

PKZ119-061915-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-061915-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-061915-
Resurrection Bay-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.  Snow and rain. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-061915-
Prince William Sound-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-061915-
Port Valdez-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-061915-
Valdez Narrows-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-061915-
Valdez Arm-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers
and snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-061915-
Passage Canal-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain and
snow showers. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-061915-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ131-061915-
Barren Islands East-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-061915-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ136-061915-
Chiniak Bay-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-061915-
Marmot Bay-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-061915-
Shelikof Strait-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-061915-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-061915-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Snow. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding to
3 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-061915-
Kachemak Bay-
954 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft in the outer bay. Seas 3 ft in
the inner bay. Snow and rain. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft in the outer bay. Seas 3 ft in
the inner bay. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 13 ft after midnight in the outer bay. Seas 2 ft
building to 8 ft in the inner bay. Rain and snow showers. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

410 
FZAK51 PAFC 061254
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070200-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the western Gulf develops into a 975 mb low near the
Barren Islands this evening. This low will move to 30 nm south of
Cordova and weaken to 980 mb midday Tue. The low moves into the 
eastern Gulf Tue evening.

$$

PKZ119-070200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 45 kt after midnight. Seas 21
ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070200-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070200-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070200-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070200-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070200-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070200-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt near
Whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain in the morning. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070200-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 50 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070200-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070200-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070200-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft subsiding to
4 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070200-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft
building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
636 AM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The strong low pressure system we've been talking about for days
is now moving across the Bering Sea, eventually to near the
Bering Strait. A 180+ kt jet is cutting around south of the low
across the southern Bering and western Aleutians. Numerous
shortwaves are translating through the westerly flow in the mid
levels. Strong southwesterly flow at the surface is bringing
abundant relatively warm air into the region. The meso-low near
Kodiak Island continues to move slowly north, also drawing warm
air into the region.

Strong winds, snow and significantly reduced visibilities have
overspread far southwest Alaska, the southern portion of the
Alaska Peninsula, as well as the eastern Aleutian Islands. Rain
was occurring over the rest of Aleutian Chain. Areas of snow could
also be found in South Central. Gale and storm force winds were
occurring over portions of the Bering sea as the front moves
through. Temperatures ranged from the teens below zero in the
Copper River Basin, to the single digits and teens above zero in
South Central, to the 20s and 30s along the southwest coast and
eastern Aleutians, to the 40s along the western and central
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Through midweek, models continue to have a relatively good handle
on the overall synoptic features in the upper levels, including
placement of the main low and troughs as well as the jet max.
Interestingly, at the surface, models are in relatively good
agreement only through about Tuesday. Regardless, the devil is in
the details as usual. The actual tracks of the individual
shortwaves, the strength of the warm air moving north into the
system, the UVV strength, and interaction with terrain will all play
major roles.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Introduced LLWS as winds become S-SE at 25-30kts off the
surface. LLWS could become even more significant later in the day.
Predominantly MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period,
although conditions will occasionally drop to IFR cig/vsby in
light snow.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A major winter storm remains largely on track for Southcentral
over the next 48 to 60 hours, with Warnings for Heavy snow in
effect for all of the Prince William Sound zones as well as the
Susitna Valley. These areas will receive the benefit of persistent
strong upslope flow along the mountains. Secondarily, conditions
remain favorable for snow and blowing snow along the western Kenai
Peninsula this afternoon through evening, where a Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect. Snowfall with the initial arrival of the
upper trough and surface front this afternoon through tonight does
look a little less impressive than in previous days, so have
generally trended snow amounts during this period. One of the
stronger short-waves embedded within the larger trough now looks
like it will stay off to the west, tracking northward across
Southwest Alaska. This will help amplify the upper level flow and
lead to stronger low level south to southeast flow across
Southcentral. This will affect areas right in the lee of the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains the most (interior western Kenai, Anchorage,
Palmer/Wasilla), leading to stronger downslope flow and less snow.
There is now higher confidence that some of these winds will make
there way into Anchorage and Palmer this afternoon and evening,
causing temperatures to jump to around or even above freezing.
The air mass is still cold enough to support all snow, and even
though it will be light in these areas there could be areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

The trend toward warmer temperatures will continue as we head to
the next stage of this long duration winter storm. There is
increasing confidence that a low moving out of the North Pacific
tonight will track just north of the Alaska Peninsula, which means
more winds and warmer temperatures spreading northward across the
western Gulf and toward the Kenai Peninsula. A new lee side low
will ultimately form on the Gulf side - likely in far southern
Cook Inlet - which is also favorable for stronger winds and warmer
temperatures. Therefore, expect temperatures to rise above
freezing for much of the southern tier of Southcentral on Monday,
from the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound to Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley. This will cause precipitation near sea level
to change to rain along the coast, and possibly extending inland.
However, temperatures aloft will remain relatively cold and
expect snow levels to remain low, likely in the 500 ft to 1000 ft
range. The track of this low will cause downslope drying for
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, so expect mostly dry
conditions for these areas with the warmer temperatures.

The low will track east across the northern Gulf or Prince William
Sound Monday night then exit eastward Tuesday. Confidence in the
low track and forecast for this time period remains low. Arctic
air will quickly usher in behind the low, so do expect all
precipitation to change back to snow before ending. However, it's
still unclear when and where the heaviest snow will fall behind
the exiting low. This pattern is generally favorable for snow in
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, so have indicated this
likelihood for Monday night through Tuesday morning. Stay tuned
as we continue to work out the remaining details of this powerful
winter storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today through
Monday)...

It is now the eve of the well-advertised and likely quite
impactful winter storm system, with weather headlines in effect
for all zones covering the Southwest forecast area. Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta, Middle
Kuskokwim Valley, and Bristol Bay, with impacts expected to begin
late tonight into the very early morning hours of Sunday. A storm
force front will move onshore overnight tonight, bringing intense
snowfall and fierce winds gusting as high as 65 mph for much of
the Y-K Delta and inland areas of the Kuskokwim Valley. Winds will
be slightly lower over Bristol Bay, with gusts to 50 mph
remaining possible. The unusual combination of strong southerly
winds with surface temperatures initially cold enough to support
heavy precipitation in the form of snow could lead to near
whiteout conditions coupled with the strongest winds, especially
during the day on Sunday. There continues to be potential for snow
to mix with or even changeover to rain with strong warm advection
and mixing down of warm air from aloft, mainly close to the coast
over Bristol Bay and the Y-K Delta. This combined with a somewhat
faster progression for the front should result in somewhat lower
snowfall totals then earlier anticipated. Still, snowfall rates
remain on track to be very intense until temperatures warm to or
slightly above freezing for areas where mixing becomes an issue.

The other primary impact from this system will be limited to
immediate coastal areas. The strong onshore winds up to storm
force will potentially enough to cause major disruptions to the
existing sea ice pack, with water likely to well up through cracks
in the ice and possibly pool over shorefast ice close to the
coastline. There remains a high amount of uncertainty as to just
exactly how the ice in place will respond to these winds, but
there is enough confidence for potential impacts to issue a
Coastal Flood Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and a Coastal
Flood Advisory for the Bristol Bay Coast with this package. Again,
uncertainty for the outlined impacts in these products remains
somewhat higher than anticipated impacts from inclement winter
weather. Interested parties in and around coastal communities
should take appropriate precautions and stay away from the ice at
least until the winds subside early on Monday morning.

Looking further into Monday, another change in the forecast is
that a triple-point low is now expected to form along the front
near the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, then track northeast
towards the Cook Inlet and perhaps even as far north as Bristol
Bay by Monday afternoon. This could bring renewed light to
moderate snowfall back across much of the area, with several more
inches of snow possible for parts of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley
and Bristol Bay interior depending on the low track. Check back
for forecast updates on this potential for additional snowfall on
Monday as the details for the track and timing of the second
system become better refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN (Days 1 to 2:
Tonight through Monday)...

An intense, storm force front is well on its way across the Bering
this evening, with moderate rain and wind gusts as high as 55 kt
already observed for parts of the western Aleutians earlier in the
day. These strong and gusty winds are on track to impact the
Pribilof Islands during the next several hours, with gusts up to
60 mph possible and moderate to heavy rainfall rates likely. The
front will move at quite a fast clip across the Bering, reaching
the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest coastal areas by late tomorrow
morning. Meanwhile, the parent low will send a surge of cold air
back across the northern Bering behind the front, with storm force
winds and gusts near Hurricane force possible across mainly the
western Bering through tomorrow morning. Westerly winds will
weaken throughout the day on Sunday as snow showers spread back
across the Bering with the colder airmass, with periods of snow
passing over the Pribilof Islands at times through Monday.
Additionally, another low is expected to form somewhere along the
front as it stalls out along or just south of the Aleutians. This
could bring renewed periods of rain/snow to the eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula on Monday as the low moves
northeast towards the Cook Inlet region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Southerly flow over the gulf will transition to a
westerly direction on Tuesday as an aggressive shortwave trough
digs eastward toward the Panhandle. Small craft to gale force
winds are forecast to expand in coverage across much of the gulf
and linger through Thursday as a series of smaller disturbances
pass through the region. Westerly storm force gusts may become an
increasing concern across the Kamishak Bay Gap, the Barren Islands
and east, and points east of southern Kodiak Island over the
latter half of the day on Tuesday. Later next week a large and
potentially significant area of low pressure will move into the
southern Bering with enhanced south to southwest gulf winds
returning to the gulf late Thursday into Friday.

Bering Sea: A break from enhanced weather early next week will
likely be short-lived across the Bering. Guidance is suggesting
that a shortwave trough will dig across the Bering and into the
Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday into Wednesday. Gale west to northwest
winds will spread over much of the Bering, clipping the Western
Aleutians and expanding southeastward through the Alaska
Peninsula. Gusts through gaps in the Alaska Peninsula should be
near or above storm force. These conditions will be followed by
the arrival of yet a larger and stronger upper low into the Bering
Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance hints at an area of low
pressure lifting across the Western Aleutians late Wednesday and
undergoing significant amplification over the southern Bering on
Thursday. While still a ways off, this second low would promote
another round of widespread gale to storm force winds over the
Bering and the Aleutian Chain on Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday)...

Weather is expected to remain very active in the long term with
the jet remaining between 50 and 60 north. This will keep things
very progressive with the storm track from the Bering Sea into
Southcentral. To start things off on Wednesday another surge of
warm air and moisture is expected to move northeast from the coast
of Japan, rapidly tapping into cold air from Siberia to generate
yet another deep low in the Bering. Bombogenesis appears likely
once again with storm to hurricane force winds over the marine
areas of the Bering Sea. There is some uncertainty on the exact
track as the system moves east on Thursday, making landfall
somewhere in Southwest Alaska and then forming a triple point low
in the Gulf on Friday night. Rain or freezing rain will be
possible on Thursday for the Southwest coast, with heavy snow
likely in the interior. As the front moves across the Alaska
Peninsula another large push of moisture is expected to impact
Southcentral. Some coastal areas along the Gulf may see a period
of rain Thursday afternoon but overall the cold air is expected to
wrap around the low rapidly, switching everything back to snow by
Friday afternoon. With the overall progressive nature of this
pattern, the storm will move out into Southeast Alaska on
Saturday. Uncertainty remains fairly high, so stay tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning: 125 131 135 145 152 155 161.
         Coastal Flood Warning: 155.
         Winter Weather Advisory: 121.
		 Coastal Flood Advisory: 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 180 411 412.
         Gale Warning: 120 130-132 137-139 150 155 160 165 170 172
                       174 175 178 179 181 185 351 352 413 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL/CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1020 AM AKST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             24 WSW WILLOW           61.62N 150.75W
12/05/2021  M4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12AM-7AM SNOW TOTAL. 7F. EAGLE SONG
            LODGE...START OF THE EVENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1022 AM AKST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             24 WSW WILLOW           61.62N 150.75W
12/05/2021  M4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 24 WSW
            WILLOW. 12AM-7AM SNOW TOTAL. 7F. EAGLE SONG
            LODGE...START OF THE EVENT.

&&