Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

114 
FZAK62 PAFC 091207
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100200-
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low with multiple centers near 53N 178W moves to 52N 
158W at 963 mb Sun morning then combines with a low in the Gulf to
become a complex low at 55N 157W at 963 mb by Mon morning. A 990 
mb low forms near 56N 174E and remains nearly stationary through 
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 14 to
22 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread snow
and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
307 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 100024
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101400-
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low complex at 53N 168W merges with a 968 mb Gulf of
Alaska low for Mon afternoon. Its front moves from the eastern
Bering into the Gulf of Alaska by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. 
Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

625 
FZAK62 PAFC 101237
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110200-
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A complex low will remain nearly stationary over the western Gulf
of Alaska through Tue morning. A 989 mb low at 56N 173E Mon 
morning will move to 53N 178W at 991 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
..HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
..HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Pattern continues to feature troughing across the Bering southward
towards the Gulf with a ridge across western Canada extending into
Northern Alaska. The Jet Stream runs well south of the Aleutians
and curves north towards Southeast Alaska. A compact low near the
Pribilofs is producing snow showers but winds are light. Farther
west satellite shows clouds spreading across the western
Aleutians ahead of next storm force low. Fairly quiet across
central Aleutians with a few showers indicated on IR Satellite.
Northwesterly flow continues from Cold Bay along the AKPEN with a
few lingering snow showers. Temperatures are generally in the 20s
across the Bering and Aleutians. Light snow continues across
Bristol Bay as a deformation zone spreads across the area
associated with a low over the Gulf. Temperatures are in the
single digits to teens from the Kuskokwim Delta towards Bristol
Bay. Satellite shows a low east of Kodiak City slowly moving
northwest with the front pushing inland and weakening. IR
satellite shows cloud tops warming across the Kenai and Coastal
Mountains as the front moves inland. Radar shows showers from the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and up towards Prince William Sound with
an overall decrease in coverage over the past couple of hours.
Light snow is indicated along the Alaska Range and dry conditions
elsewhere. Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s across the MATSU
valleys and Anchorage area, with single digits in Copper River
Basin and mid to upper 30s from Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula
and Prince William Sound area. Rain was reported at a few coastal
sites with light snow at Seward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in good agreement with high confidence in forecast
through Saturday. As we head into Sunday a bit more model
uncertainty, so moderate forecast confidence. Across the Bering a
compact low is handled well by models near the Pribilof Islands
and will weaken by Saturday morning as it is absorbed by a stronger
low approaching the Western Aleutians. Models are in good
agreement with strong low tracking near the Aleutians on Saturday.
Across Southcentral models are in good agreement with a low and
frontal system tracking across Gulf on Friday. Another low will
move from the northeast Pacific towards the Gulf Saturday this
will eventually merge with the low pressure system moving across
the Aleutians sometime on Sunday, however models are struggling
with evolution of placement and strength of this low pressure
system on Sunday. Generally the models have a complex low system
somewhere just of south of Kodiak Island near the AKPEN. So
confidence is lower with forecast on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northwesterly winds will persist,
but expect winds to shift to the southeast at 10 to 20 knots
sometime after midnight through the Saturday morning hours. There
is another chance of very light precipitation tonight possibly
snow or a wintry mix, but should not be impactful.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday)...
The merry-go-round of lows from the Pacific into the Gulf will
continue over the next three days. The most recent low will weaken
over the northwest Gulf today, with showers persisting across the
Gulf. A trough over the northeast Pacific will lift northward
today, causing a deep low to track toward Southeast Alaska, with
a front and deep moisture extends from this low all the way to
the Copper River Basin. Expect light snow, primarily south and
east of Glennallen. The upper trough will approach the north Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound late this afternoon through early
evening, briefly intensifying precipitation, then rotate
northwestward across Southcentral tonight. Colder air aloft will
move in with the short-wave, so expect snow levels to fall back
toward sea level, although the presence of gusty winds off the
Gulf will cause rain or a mix of rain/snow to hang on for the
immediate coastline.

This is a very similar track to short-waves over the past couple
days. However, this wave looks stronger and expect a better
chance of snow inland, though anything that does fall will be
brief and light. Also similar to last night and early this
morning, expect a surge of winds behind the short-wave coincident
with pressure rises, most notably through Portage Valley and
Turnagain Arm as well as through Knik Arm into the Matanuska
Valley. Pressure gradients also look more favorable to bend the
Turnagain wind into south to west Anchorage early Saturday
morning.

As we head through the day Saturday, a storm force low will track
from the Pacific into the Gulf. This storm does look like it will
take a more southerly track than previous lows, as a large deep
trough from the Aleutians tracks underneath, pulling the low
westward. Thus, expect the low to reach the south end of Kodiak
Island Saturday night, then continue westward along the Alaska
Peninsula on Sunday. Despite the more southerly track, expect very
similar weather, with the vast majority of precipitation and the
strongest winds confined to the Gulf coastal areas, with heaviest
precipitation across the eastern Kenai Peninsula as well as Kodiak
Island. While temperatures might be cold enough for snow
initially, another round of warmer air will accompany this
system, leading to mostly rain for areas at sea level. Lastly, the
steady supply of short-waves tracking across Southcentral will
bring an occasional chance of light precipitation. For the most
part though, expect dry conditions with fairly steady (and mild)
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread snow showers persists across Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta this morning as a low near Kodiak Island moves
into the southern mainland. Minimal snow accumulations are
expected as these snow showers continue to taper off across the
regions throughout the day. A second low from the North Pacific
will track towards Kodiak Island late Saturday into Sunday, but
the bulk of precipitation will stay on the windward side of the
Alaska Range. Snowfall amounts should once again remain minimal
with this system.

Cold temperatures will continue across the Kuskokwim Delta today,
with wind chills dropping near -30 tonight into Saturday morning
as clear skies move into the region. Increasing cloud cover
Saturday into Sunday will keep temperatures a bit warmer, but
stronger winds associated with a low pressure system will keep
the wind chills in the forecast through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A storm force low entering the western Bering and Aleutians this
morning will be the main weather maker over the next few days.
Strong winds and snow are expected with the associated front as it
crosses over Shemya today, which could see periods of blowing snow
and visibility reduced to one half mile at times. Other areas
along the western and central Aleutians could also see blowing
snow at times at the front moves eastward through this evening.
Unalaska will likely see a few inches of snowfall and periods of
blowing snow late tonight into Saturday morning before winds begin
to weaken through Sunday as this low system moves back into the
North Pacific. By Sunday morning, another low pressure system will
moves over the Alaska Peninsula, which will help to keep strong
northerly flow and snow showers over much of the Bering and
Aleutians through the beginning of next week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Sun through Tue)...

Gulf of Alaska: The Gulf will continue to feature various areas of
low pressure moving quickly from south to north during the period.
Model agreement is very poor in this timeframe, so forecast
confidence is low. The best chance for gale-force winds will
remain close to the barrier jet region along the coast, primarily
late Sun into Mon. Winds and waves should start to come down a bit
on Tue with nothing more than small craft winds expected during a
short break between systems.

Bering Sea: Gale-force easterly winds early in the weekend will
give way to small-craft north to northwest winds on Sunday. These
winds will persist and continue to diminish Monday through
Tuesday. Seas will follow suit subsiding through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...There is a massive amount
of disagreement in the long term portion of the forecast. The
general idea will continue to feature cold air feeding down from
the Bering Strait through the Aleutians. This will continue to
produce some small scale polar low type features moving from north
to south, but it would be nearly impossible to nail down any
details with those at this time. Several more strong lows will
move into the Gulf of AK. This will keep warm air moving from
south to north and continually trying to intrude into
Southcentral. The warmest periods will coincide with the
strongest southeast winds across the mountains, especially if any
of these winds can mix down to the surface. On the western
periphery of the systems in the Gulf and the cold air over the
Bering, this location will provide the best chance for snow and
potential headlines. Right now this area lines up over Southwest
AK. But again, with high model uncertainty, all components of the
forecast will need further refinement.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MO