Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large ridge of high pressure over the western Bering is sliding
east and through the Aleutian Islands. Aloft, a northerly 300 mb
100+ knot jetstream is draped from over Saint Matthew Island,
through the Eastern Aleutians, into the North Pacific and around a
mid level trough axis over the Alaska Peninsula. A longwave
trough is centered over the Alaska Range between the Kuskokwim
Delta and Susitna Valley. The remnants of a winter storm are
exiting Southcentral to the northwest with diminishing light snow
tapering off across the Anchorage Bowl but persisting over the
mountains west of Cook Inlet. A strong upper low is situated over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska and is moving into the Panhandle. Cold
850 mb temperatures of -20 degrees Celsius over interior Alaska
may result in 35+ knot gap winds across Resurrection Bay and also
Kamishak Gap at times.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement this morning. There are
some subtle differences with how models are handling the arrival
of an upper low and associated front into the western Bering on
Saturday and Sunday. Each model spins up smaller areas of low
pressure along the front on Sunday, but location and intensity
vary from model to model. While significant impacts are not
expected, locally enhanced conditions could be experienced
depending on if and where these smaller lows develop over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Very light snowfall lingers across the terminal this
morning. While latest satellite and radar images suggest
precipitation is gradually shifting westward, intermittent light
snow may be possible through the late morning hours. MVFR skies to
persist through the afternoon hours, but will transition to VFR
as upper-level support diminishes due departing low pressure into
the Gulf later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The 500 mb low is is now moving slowly southeast across the Kenai
Peninsula today which is enhancing lift over the Anchorage area
early this morning and will drift southward across the western
portion of the Peninsula later today. This is keeping the very
light snow in Anchorage as of this writing but that is expected
to shut off completely this morning as the upper low moves
southeastward. There is a chance for some light snow today over
the western Kenai as well with this upper low. As this low
meanders into the northern Gulf, a shortwave rotating around it will
move onshore along the north Gulf coast tonight. This will bring
some snow showers to the eastern Prince William Sound region after
midnight into Saturday morning.

North and northwest gap winds are blowing from western Prince
William Sound to the Kodiak Island area. The eastern part of
Prince William sound does not have as tight of a pressure gradient
so those winds are a bit more muted. Some of the cold advection
from the other side of the Alaska Range can be seen in the
temperatures coming through the Kamishak Gap where the station on
Augustine Island is showing temperatures in the mid teens with
winds gusting over 40 kts. This combination has prompted a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning for Kamishak Bay, which may be the first on
of the season for the waters in or adjacent to the Gulf of Alaska.

Temperatures will remain a below normal through the weekend and
into next week for Southcentral

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

An upper low over the Alaskan Range has continued driving steady
light snow and moderate northerly winds over the eastern portion
of the lower Kuskokwim Valley since last night. This pattern will
continue over parts of Bristol Bay including Iliamna and King
Salmon as the aforementioned low enters the Cook Inlet this
morning. Cold northerlies trailed by declining temperatures
of -12 to -16 degrees Celsius at 850 mb along the west and north
flank of the low aloft will fill much of Southwest AK the next
couple days.

Fri night, a ridge from the Bering will provide clear conditions
and forge temperatures in the single digits or below zero
especially over the northern area of the forecast zone through Sun
night. Light snow could continue mainly for the lower Kuskokwim
Valley and parts of Bristol Bay as the next shortwave enters SW
Sat night through Sun afternoon. Though dry but much colder
conditions are expected, the potential for intermittent and
steady snowfall will be conveyed in the short term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Gales and large seas up to 15 ft ushered by a strong frontal
system across the western Aleutians and Bering Sea starting Sat
morning will pass through parts of the central Aleutians on Sat
night before migrating north but west of Pribilof Islands Sun
morning. The development of this front plays a major role on where
gales and strongest gusts, rain and rain/snow mixed will occur.
Otherwise, eastern Bering and the eastern Aleutians will remain
under relatively quiet forecast conditions through the next few
days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska...A weak low south of Seward dissipates Sunday.
Gusty winds with this low diminish early Sunday morning. A trough
extending from an eastern Gulf low Sunday moves over the northern
Gulf towards Kodiak Island. Gusty northwesterly gap winds increase
with areas of gales from Kamishak Bay through the Barren Islands
into the western Gulf and will diminish Monday. Seas up to 15 feet
across the central Gulf late Sunday night will subside Monday.

Aleutians/Bering...High pressure weakens as it exits over the
Alaska Peninsula for Sunday. A South Kamchatka low moves into the
western Bering as its front pushes into the central Aleutians
through Monday. Southerly high-end gales with the front diminish
as the front moves into the eastern Bering on Monday. Seas up to
16 feet across the central Bering on Sunday morning will subside
Monday morning. A low over the western Bering will spread westerly
high-end gales and seas up to 20 feet across the western
Aleutians late Sunday night through Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A cold and dry pattern is expected across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska during the extended period. Teleconnections
support a pronounced upper level ridge over the eastern Bering
Sea. Southwest and Southcentral will remain east of the ridge-axis
and thus northwesterly synoptic flow will allow for cold air
advection to continue across the region. This pattern will also be
fairly dry across Southcentral and Southwest due to the overall offshore
flow pattern. Nighttime low temperatures are likely to remain well
below normal in lower lying valleys due to the strong potential
for nocturnal radiational cooling. There is also the potential
for strong northerly winds in Thompson Pass, Valdez Arm/Narrows
and the Copper River Delta during this period due to strong
surface high pressure over the Copper Basin with lower pressure
offshore in the Gulf of Alaska.

Over the Bering/Aleutians, warmer temperatures are expected due to
the aforementioned upper level ridging, especially in the central
to western Aleutians. Forecast confidence remains low with respect
to the position and intensity of low pressure systems and frontal
systems across the Bering/Aleutians during the extended period due
to significant differences in solutions. However, it is plausible
for these systems to remain on the weaker side due to the good
ensemble agreement of consistent positive geopotential height
anomalies across the region.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 132 138 150 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1121 AM AKST FRI NOV 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.79W
11/12/2021  E17.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            NEAR DEBARR & PINE. STORM TOTAL.

1107 AM     SNOW             8 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.12N 149.77W
11/12/2021  E18.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            NEAR OMALLEY & BIRCH. STORM TOTAL.

1105 AM     SNOW             8 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.11N 149.77W
11/12/2021  M22.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            HUFFMAN & BIRCH. STORM TOTAL. SNOW SETTLED
            TO 17.5 INCHES.

1100 AM     SNOW             3 SW ANCHORAGE          61.18N 149.96W
11/12/2021  M9.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1059 AM     SNOW             3 NE ANCHORAGE          61.24N 149.83W
11/12/2021  M14.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1033 AM     SNOW             NWS ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.98W
11/12/2021  M11.8 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL.

1029 AM     SNOW             BEAR VALLEY, ANCHORAGE  61.07N 149.73W
11/12/2021  M20.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1027 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
11/12/2021  E16.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1027 AM     SNOW             1 N EAGLE RIVER         61.34N 149.56W
11/12/2021  E18.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1020 AM     SNOW             4 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.76W
11/12/2021  M21.8 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL. STILL SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY WITH
            MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.

1010 AM     SNOW             8 SW WASILLA            61.50N 149.66W
11/12/2021  E11.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            MILE 10 KBG STORM TOTAL.

1006 AM     SNOW             10 SE ANCHORAGE         61.10N 149.72W
11/12/2021  M21.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL STILL SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY.

1002 AM     SNOW             14 NE ANCHORAGE         61.34N 149.57W
11/12/2021  E18.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            EAGLE RIVER NEAR POWDER RIDGE DR. STORM
            TOTAL.

1000 AM     SNOW             14 NE ANCHORAGE         61.32N 149.57W
11/12/2021  E13.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

0959 AM     SNOW             8 NNW PALMER            61.70N 149.24W
11/12/2021  M10.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

0957 AM     SNOW             7 S TALKEETNA           62.23N 150.07W
11/12/2021  M1.6 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0956 AM     SNOW             2 E SOLDOTNA            60.48N 151.00W
11/12/2021  M3.3 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0954 AM     SNOW             5 ESE WASILLA           61.56N 149.31W
11/12/2021  M9.1 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0953 AM     SNOW             2 NNW PALMER            61.62N 149.13W
11/12/2021  M9.4 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0952 AM     SNOW             8 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.12N 149.78W
11/12/2021  M19.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0951 AM     SNOW             7 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.11N 149.85W
11/12/2021  M20.3 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0950 AM     SNOW             5 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.15N 149.96W
11/12/2021  M13.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL.

0945 AM     SNOW             8 SE ANCHORAGE          61.12N 149.75W
11/12/2021  E20.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

0941 AM     SNOW             8 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.11N 149.82W
11/12/2021  M18.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL MEASUREMENT.

0847 AM     SNOW             5 ENE BIG LAKE          61.54N 149.82W
11/12/2021  M10.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL.

0800 AM     SNOW             15 E ANCHORAGE          61.23N 149.44W
11/12/2021  M23.1 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL. 1.24 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0540 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.93W
11/12/2021  M13.9 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1121 AM AKST FRI NOV 12 2021

TIME/DATE...          EVENT/AMOUNT...     LOCATION...           SOURCE....  REMARKS...

1110AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E17.0 INCH    3 E ANCHORAGE            PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       NEAR DEBARR & PINE.

1107AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E18.0 INCH    8 SSE ANCHORAGE          PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       NEAR OMALLEY & BIRCH.

1105AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M22.5 INCH    8 SSE ANCHORAGE          PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL. SNOW SETTLED
                                       HUFFMAN & BIRCH.                                       TO 17.5 INCHES.

1100AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M9.0 INCH     3 SW ANCHORAGE           PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       NEAR LAKE HOOD.

1059AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M14.5 INCH    3 NE ANCHORAGE           PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       JBER ELMENDORF SIDE

1033AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M11.8 INCH    NWS ANCHORAGE            NWS         STORM TOTAL.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

1029AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M20.5 INCH    BEAR VALLEY              PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       ANCHORAGE

1027AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E16.0 INCH    EAGLE RIVER              PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.

1027AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E18.0 INCH    1 N EAGLE RIVER          PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.

1020AM 11/12/2021  SNOW M21.8 INCH     4 E ANCHORAGE            NWS         STORM TOTAL. STILL SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

1010AM 11/12/2021  SNOW E11.0 INCH     8 SW WASILLA             PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       MILE 10 KBG.

1006AM 11/12/2021   SNOW  M21.0 INCH   10 SE ANCHORAGE          TRAINED     STORM TOTAL. STILL SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY.
                                       UPPER DEARMOUN           SPOTTER

1002AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E18.0 INCH    14 NE ANCHORAGE          PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.
                                       EAGLE RIVER NEAR
                                       POWDER RIDGE DR.

1000AM 11/12/2021   SNOW  E13.5 INCH   14 NE ANCHORAGE          PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.

0959AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M10.0 INCH    8 NNW PALMER             PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.

0957AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M1.6 INCH     7 S TALKEETNA            COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0956AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M3.3 INCH     2 E SOLDOTNA             COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0954AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M9.1 INCH     5 ESE WASILLA            COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0953AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M9.4 INCH     2 NNW PALMER             COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0952AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M19.5 INCH    8 SSE ANCHORAGE          COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0951AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M20.3 INCH    7 SSE ANCHORAGE          COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0950AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M13.0 INCH    5 SSW ANCHORAGE          COCORAHS    STORM TOTAL.

0945AM 11/12/2021   SNOW E20.0 INCH    8 SE ANCHORAGE           PUBLIC      STORM TOTAL.

0941AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M18.5 INCH    8 SSE ANCHORAGE          NWS         STORM TOTAL.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

0847AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M10.0 INCH    5 ENE BIG LAKE           NWS         STORM TOTAL.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

0800AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M23.1 INCH    15 E ANCHORAGE           NWS         STORM TOTAL. 1.24 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

0540AM 11/12/2021   SNOW M13.9 INCH     4 SSW ANCHORAGE         NWS         STORM TOTAL.
                                                                EMPLOYEE

&&

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