Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

270 
FZAK51 PAFC 040054
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041330-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A decaying front lingers over the Central Gulf through Thu 
afternoon. A 996 mb low at 55N 161W Thu afternoon moves to 57N 
150W at 989 mb Fri afternoon. Its front moves across the Gulf 
through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-041330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta in the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041330-
Resurrection Bay-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing
spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041330-
Prince William Sound-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray west of Naked
Island.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041330-
Port Valdez-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041330-
Valdez Narrows-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening.
Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041330-
Valdez Arm-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041330-
Passage Canal-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041330-
Barren Islands East-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041330-
Chiniak Bay-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041330-
Marmot Bay-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft
building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041330-
Shelikof Strait-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-041330-
Kachemak Bay-
354 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. E of Homer,
variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. E of Homer, SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

930 
FZAK51 PAFC 041223
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050100-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A decaying front lingers over the Central Gulf through this 
afternoon. A 992 mb low 40 nm south of Sitkinak Fri morning moves
to 270 nm south of Middleton Island at 993 mb by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-050100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050100-
Resurrection Bay-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050100-
Prince William Sound-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050100-
Port Valdez-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050100-
Valdez Narrows-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050100-
Valdez Arm-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050100-
Passage Canal-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050100-
Barren Islands East-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 25 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft except 9 ft N of Dangerous 
Cape.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050100-
Chiniak Bay-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050100-
Marmot Bay-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050100-
Shelikof Strait-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray S of Cape Kuliak.
Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-050100-
Kachemak Bay-
323 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern is in place across the state as a deep upper
level trough over the mainland extends along an axis from the
North Slope southward toward the Gulf. Meanwhile over the
Bering, an upper level ridge is gradually building in from the
west. At the surface, a complex low is slowly moving southward,
with one center over the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. The second low
center is centered over the southern Alaska Peninsula and moving
south. Both of these features have brought snow and blowing snow
conditions to much of the central and eastern Bering, including
the Pribilofs, eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula, and
also the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Farther east, low level stratus in
place across Southcentral this morning is gradually dissipating as
a more northerly/offshore flow pattern sets ups.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are generally in good agreement with the broad area of low
pressure over the eastern Bering. By late Wednesday into early
Thursday, model solutions are also in fair agreement with the
track of an incoming Kamchatka low over the western Bering. The
track of this low has been consistently advertised as moving
northward while the associated front pushes eastward across the
Bering with agreement on southerly high end gales to possibly
storm force winds. Meanwhile for Southcentral, models have been
keeping the residual low in place over the Gulf through the end of
the week, with its position remaining nearly stationary. By the
weekend, there are some discrepancies with the formation of a
triple point in the vicinity of Kodiak Island. Models are
advertising various solutions with the strength and track of this
low as it moves into the Gulf, and therefore confidence at this
time for the weekend remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds and VFR conditions are expected. Low
stratus and fog may develop over Cook Inlet and drift over the
terminal late this evening into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 3: Today
through Friday afternoon)...

Scattered snow showers in the Copper River Basin will gradually
taper off this evening as offshore flow develops over the region.
Northerly winds will likewise persist across Southcentral leading
to mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. Winds through
terrain gaps will gradually increase through Wednesday. Gusts as
high as 55 mph are possible through Thompson Pass Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning brining the potential for periods of
blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Weaker flow across
Anchorage and the Mat-Su Wednesday and Thursday mornings could
lead to low stratus and/or patchy fog. Temperatures will be
slightly warmer where this would occur. Offshore flow will weaken
Thursday evening as a front approaches from the west. While there
remains some uncertainty, initial downsloping appears likely in
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Snow will then develop on the
backside of the low as it begins to track southward in the Gulf by
late Friday. Significant accumulations are possible over the
eastern Kenai Peninsula as precipitation will linger there for
much of the day Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow and blowing snow continues across the Kuskokwim Delta this
evening. The heaviest snow and strongest winds are located along
the coastal section of the Kuskokwim Delta. There is a Blizzard
Warning in effect through this evening for the coastal Kuskokwim
Delta due to the combination of strong winds and ample amounts of
transportable snow (light fluffy snow that is prone to blow
around) causing visibility to be reduced to a quarter of a mile or
less at times. Winds should gradually ease later tonight which
will result in an improvement to visibility. The snow and blowing
snow will also continue across the AKPEN, though due to a lesser
amount of transportable snow visibility will be restricted to a
half mile at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for the Alaska Peninsula through early Wednesday morning. The
winds across the AKPEN will ease throughout Wednesday morning.
Wednesday will overall be a quiet weather day for Southwest Alaska
as dry offshore flow persists across the area. The next round of
active weather will be on Thursday as an occluded front (warm
occlusion) moves over Southwest Alaska. Precipitation type is
expected to mainly be snow, though forecast confidence is only
moderate at this time. Areas that will have the best chance of
rain mixing in are southern Bristol Bay and the AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern will continue across the
Bering/Aleutians over the next 3 days. Widespread gale force
winds will continue through the eastern Bering Sea this evening
and tonight. Storm force winds will continue in and around gaps
(i.e. Unimak Pass) along the AKPEN and eastern Aleutians that are
prone to funneling northwesterly winds. A Blizzard Warning remains
in effect for the Pribilof and eastern Aleutian Islands this
evening. A Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow remains in
effect through early Wednesday morning for the AKPEN. Transient
high pressure that is currently over the western Bering/Aleutians
will gradually move eastward to over Bristol Bay by Wednesday
night and then into the Gulf by late Thursday morning. Another
front associated with the next low will move eastward across the
Bering/Aleutians from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
before moving inland. This front will bring widespread gale force
winds with localized areas of storm force winds. Areas that will
experience the strongest winds are gaps that are prone to
funneling from the south. There is also expected to be widespread
gale force west- northwesterly winds behind this front with a
smaller area of storm force winds. Guidance shows consistency in
the boundary layer winds forecast with these winds reaching storm
force. Due to these storm force winds in the boundary layer
expected to be behind the cold front, it is very likely they will
mix down to the surface as the strong cold air advection will keep
the boundary layer coupled.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Bering Sea: A low and trailing front approaching the Alaska
Peninsula from the west will bring widespread westerly gales with
an area of storm force winds and 30 feet seas moving with the
low, or north of the Eastern Aleutians on Fri morning. Winds
decrease to gales over the Eastern Bering by Sat with seas
decreasing to 20 feet. Another strong front moves north across the
Western Bering/Aleutians late Fri into Sat. High end westerly
gale force to possibly storm force winds and seas building to 25
feet over the Western Bering are expected for Sat. Some model
uncertainty persists, but overall confidence is good. A low
approaches the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific early Sun
with southerly gales spreading into the central Bering with seas
remaining in the mid-20s through Sun. Up to storm force winds are
again possible for parts of the central Bering with this next
system on Sun, but confidence for these higher winds is lower by
this point in the forecast.

Gulf of Alaska: A low and front trailing to the south of Kodiak
Island move into the western Gulf Fri with northwesterly gales
moving in over the western bering just behind low and front. Waves
build to 10 to 15 feet in the western Gulf on Fri and up to 20
feet in the southern Gulf by early Sat. Confidence for this
portion of the forecast is good, but uncertainty for the low track
increases as it drifts towards the central/northern Gulf on Sat.
There is better confidence for a region of at least northwesterly
gales to continue southwest of the low near the southeastern Gulf,
but the region of highest winds will depend on the uncertain low
track. By Sun, confidence increases for the low to exit into the
North Pacific with northerly winds decreasing to small crafts or
lower and seas subsiding to 10 feet by Sun evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The models are in surprisingly good agreement at the start of this
forecast period, with only moderate agreement through the
weekend. The active pattern is expected to continue.

Models keep a strong Arctic/Siberian upper level low rotating
around northeast Russia with an attendant trough stretching
southeastward across western Alaska and the eastern Aleutians at
the start of the period. A shortwave moving along the trough
extending from the aforementioned upper low will help force a
lower level circulation which may develop over the Alaskan
Peninsula and track into the northern Gulf. While details are very
much uncertain with this and even farther out, there could be
another trough moving across the Aleutians and Bering at the end
of the forecast period.

Overall, expect milder temperatures for this time period with
readings still slightly below normal but closer to the normal
values of where they typically are this time of the year which is
near 32 degrees F for Anchorage. This pattern could potentially
mean a snowier regime for Southcentral and in particular across
the Anchorage Bowl. However, many factors have to come together
for Anchorage to get the snow, though, the storm track looks
favorable with model guidance mostly bringing lows near and into
Prince William Sound with details of each uncertain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155 185 195.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 181.
MARINE...Storm Warning 172 185 411.
		 Gale Warning 130 131 150 155 165 170 171 173-181 412-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 155 160 165 179 180
									  185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS/NR