Dense Smoke Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

275 
WWAK72 PAFC 251728
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
928 AM AKDT Tue May 25 2021

AKZ161-260000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.SM.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210526T0000Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
928 AM AKDT Tue May 25 2021

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PILOT POINT...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense smoke.

* WHERE...Pilot Point.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. 
  Travel may be difficult due to low visibility. Persons with 
  respiratory problems may have difficulty breathing when 
  outside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A dense smoke advisory means widespread fires will create smoke,
limiting visibilities. Persons with respiratory illnesses should
remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. If driving, slow down,
use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

681 
WWAK72 PAFC 252254
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
254 PM AKDT Tue May 25 2021

AKZ161-261200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.SM.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210526T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
254 PM AKDT Tue May 25 2021

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR PILOT POINT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM 
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense smoke.

* WHERE...Pilot Point.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may be difficult due to low visibility. Persons
  with respiratory problems may have difficulty breathing when
  outside. The smoke plume extends 40 miles from Pilot Point and
  into Bristol Bay. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A dense smoke advisory means widespread fires will create smoke,
limiting visibilities. Persons with respiratory illnesses should
remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

168 
WWAK72 PAFC 261137
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKDT Wed May 26 2021

AKZ161-261245-
/O.EXP.PAFC.SM.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210526T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
337 AM AKDT Wed May 26 2021

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Smoke is confined to right near the fire and is not diminishing
visibility.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

170 
WWAK72 PAFC 261140 CCA
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKDT Wed May 26 2021

AKZ161-261245-
/O.COR.PAFC.SM.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210526T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
340 AM AKDT Wed May 26 2021

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR PILOT POINT WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM AKDT 
EARLY THIS MORNING...

Smoke is confined to right near the fire and is not diminishing
visibility.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKDT Tue May 25 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An omega blocking pattern remains generally persistent in the
upper levels. As such, a broad upper low in the western Bering
continues to lead to a series of fronts near its associated
surface low, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers,
particularly over the western Aleutians. Skies remain clear across
much of the mainland under a strong ridge. The only exception is
some fog/low cloud cover along the coast east of and including
Cordova closer to an upper low centered near the Panhandle.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement. Sea breezes look to overcome
weakening offshore flow during the afternoon hours today and
Wednesday. There remains some question as to how far east a front
will progress in the eastern Bering before being inhibited by the
strong ridge over the mainland. However, this will be minimally
impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds and VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday night)...

Strong subsidence on the eastern side of an upper level ridge
centered over Southwest Alaska along with deep northerly flow
will provide for another warm and sunny day across Southcentral
Alaska today. Low level winds will weaken just enough to allow
more typical sea breezes to return, leading to marginally cooler
temperatures along the immediate coast. Short-waves tracking along
the eastern periphery of the ridge will bring a few clouds and
showers to the Wrangell Mountains and far eastern Copper River
Basin.

On Wednesday the combination of a strong short-wave trough
crossing the Bering and another weaker short-wave dropping
southward across mainland Alaska will cause the ridge to weaken.
While conditions will remain dry, some mid to high clouds will
advect southward with the upper level short-wave. Stronger sea
breezes will return as pressure drops over land. The combination
of the clouds and breezes will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
on Wednesday, though still above normal away from the coast.

A stronger short-wave trough will dig southward across eastern
Alaska Thursday and reach Southcentral by Thursday night. Expect
increasing clouds and showers Thursday afternoon over interior
Southcentral, possibly turning into steady light rain over the
Copper River Basin Thursday night. There is some question about
how far south the trough and associated precipitation will make
it. Nonetheless, expect increasing cloud cover and cooler
temperatures across Southcentral on Thursday, with a chance
of rain for all areas by Thursday night. Lastly, a series of weak
troughs from the Aleutians will approach Kodiak Island Wednesday
night through Thursday, bringing a chance of rain - primarily to
the south end of the island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

High pressure will continue to influence Southwest Alaska with
temperatures a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Skies will
remain clear through tonight. Weak onshore flow will develop
Wednesday morning with patchy fog possible across the Kuskokwim
Delta and coastal areas of Bristol Bay. On Wednesday the remnants
of a front over the eastern Bering will bring clouds across the
area mainly near coastal locations. A few showers are possible
Wednesday evening through Thursday from the Kuskokwim Delta coast
to coastal areas of Bristol Bay, however any rainfall
accumulations will be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Areas of smoke with low visibilities near a mile will be likely
near Pilot Point on the AKPEN today as a fire continues to burn in
this area. Areas of fog are likely around the Pribilof Islands
through around mid-day. Several low pressure systems will affect
the area over the next couple of days. The first low that has been
over the Bering for several days will move north of Attu Island
today and weaken through Wednesday morning with no significant
weather with this low. A second stronger low will move out of the
north Pacific and near Atka by this afternoon this will bring
areas of gale force winds across the eastern Aleutians and
southern portions of the AKPEN this afternoon through Wednesday
morning. This low will move west of the Pribilofs Wednesday
morning and continue to move north and exit the area by Wednesday
evening. Finally another low approaches the western Aleutians
Wednesday night and Thursday morning bringing an area of gales on
the north side of the low, these gales will move across the
central Aleutians on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Thursday through Saturday)...

A North Pacific low and associated front will move toward the
western Aleutians with the potential of gale force winds on
Thursday. Otherwise, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less
than 20 ft over the Bering and the Gulf for the Day 3 through 5
period.

&&

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, model guidance are in
good agreement in the synoptic scale features beginning Friday
through at least Sunday, but diverge significantly in the details
towards the end the period. Starting over the Bering, a North
Pacific low will continue to track just south of the Aleutians
with an associated frontal system spreading rain and wind at times
along the Chain and over the AKPEN. The frontal system coupled
with embedded shortwaves and a deep fetch of tropical moisture
will works its way toward the Gulf, bringing unsettled weather to
coastal areas of Southcentral, including the Kenai Peninsula and
Prince William Sound. Meanwhile, an amplified ridge high pressure
extending from the Chukchi Sea to the northern Bering will keep
most of the western mainland relatively dry through at least
Saturday.

Thereafter, models seem to struggle with the tracking, timing,
and strength of an Arctic trough with an upper level low moving
across the Alaska-Yukon border. By late in the weekend, the upper
low will be detached from the polar jet stream and become a
cutoff low. The latest EC, GFS, and Canadian operational runs
seem to agree with the idea of the cutoff low moving southwest
over the state. However, the uncertainty lies if the low will
either meander over the Bering and phase with the aforementioned
Aleutian low (EC) or merge with a new North Pacific low (GFS)
instead. The Canadian model has the low remaining stationary over
the western Gulf where it then becomes the main feature as the
Aleutian low weakens. Subsequent model runs will be needed to iron
out specific details including the potential impacts in the
forecast areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 165 170 173 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF/CK