Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

908 
WHAK42 PAFC 091315
CFWALU

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

AKZ161-100300-
/O.CON.PAFC.CF.W.0002.211209T2100Z-211210T0600Z/
Bristol Bay-
415 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
9 PM AKST THIS EVENING ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM NAKNEK
SOUTH...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the Bristol Bay coast from 
  Naknek south. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels rising 3 to 6 feet above normal 
  high tides. 

* TIMING...12 PM AKST Today to 9 PM Today.

* IMPACTS...Low lying areas could see minor flooding. Ice could 
  pile up on the beach. Boats and other items in low lying areas 
  could be damaged. Water could flow through cracks in the ice 
  causing ponding water over shorefast ice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.

&&

$$

AKZ181-100300-
/O.CON.PAFC.CF.W.0002.211209T1800Z-211210T0600Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
415 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FROM NELSON LAGOON EAST...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the northern coast of the 
  Alaska Peninsula from Nelson Lagoon east. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels rising 3 to 6 feet above normal 
  high tides. 

* TIMING...9 AM AKST Today to 9 PM AKST Today.

* IMPACTS...Low lying areas could see minor flooding. Ice could 
  pile up on the beach. Boats and other items in low lying areas 
  could be damaged. Water could flow through cracks in the ice 
  causing ponding water over shorefast ice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.

&&

$$

301 
WHAK42 PAFC 100118
CFWALU

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

AKZ161-100600-
/O.CON.PAFC.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-211210T0600Z/
Bristol Bay-
418 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM NAKNEK SOUTH...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the Bristol Bay coast from 
  Naknek south. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels rising 3 to 6 feet above normal 
  high tides. 

* TIMING...Until 9 PM Today.

* IMPACTS...Low lying areas could see minor flooding. Ice could 
  pile up on the beach. Boats and other items in low lying areas 
  could be damaged. Water could flow through cracks in the ice 
  causing ponding water over shorefast ice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.

&&

$$

AKZ181-100600-
/O.CON.PAFC.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-211210T0600Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
418 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM
NELSON LAGOON EAST...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the northern coast of the 
  Alaska Peninsula from Nelson Lagoon east. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels rising 3 to 6 feet above normal 
  high tides. 

* TIMING...Until 9 PM AKST Today.

* IMPACTS...Low lying areas could see minor flooding. Ice could 
  pile up on the beach. Boats and other items in low lying areas 
  could be damaged. Water could flow through cracks in the ice 
  causing ponding water over shorefast ice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.

&&

$$

436 
WHAK42 PAFC 100601
CFWALU

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
901 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

AKZ161-100715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-211210T0600Z/
Bristol Bay-
901 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AKZ181-100715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-211210T0600Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
901 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Southcentral sits between two upper-level shortwave troughs: one
exiting the region to the east near the Alaska-Yukon border, and
the second moving in over Southwest Alaska. As the eastern trough
and accompanying surface low are beginning to exit the region,
the Copper River Basin continues to see blowing snow in its
extreme northern reaches and snow showers elsewhere on the tail
end of this system. Some portions of the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su have seen a brief period of clear skies,
allowing for temperatures to drop back into the teens and single
digits in places that were able to take advantage of this
radiative cooling.

However, high clouds ahead of the a front sweeping eastward across
Southwest Alaska are bringing these brief clear skies to an end.
The front itself is producing snow showers and gusty winds across
the Southwest. Behind the front, a swath of westerly gales is
bringing cooler air and widespread showers across the Bering. An
intensifying North Pacific low is also developing as anticipated
south of the Aleutian Islands, its warm front pushing north and
spreading rain and gusty west to southwest winds along the entire
length of the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions maintain good synoptic agreement through the
short term. For the Southwest, models are consistent regarding the
timing of a front tracking across the region through Wednesday, as
well as with precipitation amounts and wind speeds. In the Gulf,
minor model differences in the location and evolution of various
meso-lows through Wednesday evening will impact the timing of
gale- force outflow winds in the Northern Gulf. A North Pacific
low enters the Bering Wednesday evening, and models demonstrate
consistency with the track of the low until Thursday morning.
Then, the NAM, GEM, and EC begin to progress the low eastward more
rapidly than the GFS. As a result, the GFS is slower to bring
precipitation across the Southwest. Of the global models, the GEM
and GFS represent a broader swath of storm-force winds on the
backside of the low, with the GEM even hinting at an area of
hurricane-force winds. Winds with the NAM and EC remain weaker in
comparison over the Eastern Aleutians, providing a source of
forecast uncertainty for high winds at that location. Models
continue to disagree with the position of the low through Friday,
making the finer details of the low's impacts uncertain as it
tracks into Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Conditions are expected to remain VFR, with light
southeasterly winds near the surface through this afternoon.
Then, a band of light snow showers may reduce cig/vsby to MVFR,
with intermittent IFR conditions possible. Winds shift to light
northerly. Snow showers taper off through the evening, returning
to VFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Thursday Night)...

With the last of the warnings associated with the last storm now
ended, all attention turns to the next storm, which is currently
moving into the Western and Central Aleutians. Several Winter
Storm Watches are in effect for that storm. First, in between the
two storms, a relatively weak front is beginning to affect the
southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island this morning. The front
is weakening as it shears apart, but still has some punch to it.
Light to briefly moderate bursts of snow will develop across the
southern Kenai Peninsula, including the Homer Bluff early this
morning, then will spread north to the Kenai-Soldotna area late
this morning. This afternoon, the front will weaken enough that it
will require the help of the mountains to uplift the moisture.
Since the front will also be spreading north, the snow will focus
along the mountains this afternoon from the Matanuska Valley south
through east Anchorage and the Hillside on down through Cooper
Landing. The snow shower activity will diminish everywhere this
evening. For the hills north of Homer, generally expect 1 to 3
inches of snow from this front, with around an inch possible on
the Hillside and Matanuska Valley this afternoon. Gusty winds
through the gaps near Seward and Whittier will briefly diminish
today as the front moves through.

The next big storm mentioned above begins to impact Kodiak Island
starting early Thursday morning. Precipitation will begin as snow
there, but change to rain as warmer air moves in with the leading
front. Snow will reach the southern Kenai Peninsula in the predawn
hours Thursday morning, then spread along the entire north Gulf
coast through the day. Heavy snow is expected from the hills north
of Homer to much of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, including Seward
and Whittier, and along Prince William Sound through Cordova.
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for all of these areas. The
parent low will cross the Alaska Peninsula to around the Barren
Islands Thursday evening, then will gradually track east along the
coast to near Middleton Island Friday evening. The low will be
quite strong, peaking around 960 mb. As such, it will produce
strong winds along the barrier jet region south of Cordova, and
through Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley. The strength of the low
will also largely prevent much snow from reaching Anchorage or
points north due to its compact nature. That isn't to say there
won't be times where a bit of snow sneaks over the mountains, but
nothing consistent is expected in these areas.

With the low track staying south of much of mainland Southcentral,
it will also prevent warm air from making it much beyond the
coast. Thus, unlike the last storm, do not expect a widespread
warmup to above freezing conditions for much of the area. However,
the cloud cover and windy conditions will work to keep
temperatures around normal, with highs in the 20s and lows in the
teens as it impacts the area.

Looking ahead, once the storm moves away from the area Friday
night, expect temperatures to take a deep dive with the potential
for the coldest temperatures of the season this weekend. That is
saying a lot given how cold we got at the end of November. We will
also have to monitor how strong the gap winds get, as the
combination of the extremely cold air and the departing storm
could result in high winds through the gaps.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Friday morning)...

The active weather pattern will continue across the region as a
frontal system moves through the area today with 1 to 3 inches of
snow and blowing snow across the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. The
area will see a brief break this evening and tonight before a
strong low pressure system moves across the area early Thursday
morning. This will bring strong winds and heavy snow to Bristol
Bay, the Kuskokwim Delta, and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect Thursday and Friday for Bristol
Bay. 8 to 12 inches of snow are expected with blowing snow
likely. For the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Thursday and Friday, 4 to
8 inches of snow are expected and areas of blowing snow are possible.
The Kuskokwim Delta is expected to see 5 to 7 inches of snow on
Thursday, with blowing snow likely. As a result, new winter
weather products are likely to be issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Friday morning)...

A low pressure system will move across the northern Bering today
with widespread gales across the region and a small area of storm
force winds west of St Matthew Island this morning. A deepening
storm force low pressure system will move across the central
Aleutians and into the southern Bering this afternoon and tonight.
This low will deepen, with hurricane force winds likely as cold
air is pulled into the low from the north. This system will
produce high winds across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen with
High Wind Warnings effective tonight through Thursday. This low
will also cause blizzard conditions across the Pribilof Islands
tonight and tomorrow morning with a Blizzard Warning in effect.
Behind this low, cold air will cause widespread gales and snow
showers. Finally, a compact low with storm force winds near the
center will move across the western Bering Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday thru Sunday)...

Aleutians/Bering... Confidence is good for upper level support
moving South over the Bering. This brings widespread gales over
the Aleutians and Bering, with local storm force winds across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula for Friday, diminishing. Seas to 25
feet over the Bering Fri, subsiding, and to 22 feet on the
Pacific side of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Sunday.
A new North Pacific low and front moves across the Western
Aleutians and Bering on Sunday. Widespread high-end gales and seas
building to 20 feet expected for Sunday.

Gulf of Alaska... A well-developed Northern Gulf low moves to the
Southeast Gulf for Sunday. Widespread high-end gales persist
through Sunday over the Gulf. Areas of storm force outflow winds
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, Shelikof Strait
and Barren Islands for Saturday and Sunday. Seas to 25 feet across
the Northern Gulf, subsiding, and building to 30 feet over the
Southern Gulf by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7... Sat through Tue)...

A broad trough is forecast to be in place over Southcentral
during the weekend with active rain and snow showers over the
Northern Gulf and enhanced easterly winds along the coast. West of
the trough several smaller upper-level disturbances will be
digging southward over the eastern Bering within highly a
amplified flow. This should effectively help to amplify the trough
over the Gulf while also pushing the trough further east. At the
same time a tightened pressure gradient over the Bering will
contribute to very strong northerly winds across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula with storm force gusts and heavy freezing spray
a good possibility late Saturday into Sunday. Aiding in the the
tightening of the pressure gradient will be a strengthening ridge
of high pressure south of Kamchatka. This ridge is expected to
slide east and overspread the southern Bering and Alaska Peninsula
by Monday. Even further behind, the next upper low will quickly
bring another barrage of smaller disturbances northeastward out of
the North Pacific and across the Aleutians with several rounds of
rain, snow, and elevated winds Monday into Tuesday. High pressure
from the weekend will eventually overspread the Gulf early next
week with a brief period of calmer conditions forecast on Monday.
This calm should be short-lived, however, with the first of
several disturbances to impact the Aleutians on Monday finally
reaching the Gulf by Tuesday as a negatively tilted trough. A
strong front associated with the trough will bring widespread
precipitation over Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Lastly,
a new broad low pressure center is forecast to amplify over the
Bering Monday into Tuesday. Snow showers and enhanced winds and
heavy freezing spray will be a good bet for the Bristol Bay area
and the Kuskokwim Delta next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195
         Winter Storm Warning 131
         Winter Weather Advisory 152 155 161
         Winter Storm Watch 121 125 135
         High Wind Warning 181 185

MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 165
         Storm Warning 132 150 155 160 170-176 179 180 185
         Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 137-140 177 178 180 181
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 140 160 181 185

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ/KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/BL