Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
407 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Weak energy aloft is currently overspreading a weak sfc boundary
across south central South Dakota. As a result, a few storms have
developed. This activity is very near and should move into shortly a
favorable environment for severe weather: 50+ kts of effective bulk
shear, 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE, fairly steep mid level lapse rates and
high DCAPE. Thus, a supercell or two, if they can become
established, may be in the vicinity of or across the southern CWA
through the early evening with large hail and damaging winds the
main threats.

Additional widely scattered elevated storms may develop/spread later
tonight into Tuesday morning further and further northeast in time
across the rest of the forecast area, thanks to warm air/moisture
advection aloft. This activity could well be severe given continued
strong deep layer shear and MUCAPE values at or above 2000 J/kg. A
cold front will work through the area on Tuesday, shifting winds to
the northwest as it does. Wind gusts across central SD over-
performed some today, up to 35 mph. If they do again tomorrow,
marginal red flag criteria may be met as confidence is higher for
slightly drier air leading to around 20 percent RH across the far
southwestern CWA. This cold front could trigger isolated storms
across the far eastern CWA during the afternoon/evening, though
confidence is low. Cooler air moves in behind the front, with lows
in the mid 50s into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

An active pattern continues through the period, as westerly flow
aloft remains across the Northern Plains. A number of short/open
waves propagate through as a result, providing support for
thunderstorm development. This activity being in the proximity of
good deep layer shear, it has the potential to become strong to
severe. Instability may be limited at times given cool temps and
cloud cover, but should be sufficient to aid in this potential at
times given dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. The best chance for
more widespread precipitation exists on Thursday as an open wave
moves through.

High temperatures will range 5 degrees above to 10 degrees below
average through the weekend across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period.
However, widely scattered showers and storms are possible late
this afternoon and early evening around KPIR, and then across the
rest of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. Temporary
visibility reductions are possible in association with any passing
storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Lueck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
248 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-242000-
Traverse-Big Stone-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-
Deuel-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
248 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated storms are possible overnight. The potential for severe
weather is low though cant be ruled out entirely. The threats will
be limited to hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated storms will continue into Tuesday with a low risk of severe
weather. An active pattern continues through the rest of the work
week, however there is too much uncertainty to nail down specific
timing and threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ003-015-033-242000-
Corson-Dewey-Stanley-
248 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 /148 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Fire danger will be in the very high category today.

Isolated storms are possible overnight. The potential for severe
weather is low though cant be ruled out entirely. The threats will
be limited to hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Fire danger will be in the very high category Tuesday.

Isolated storms will continue into Tuesday with a low risk of severe
weather. An active pattern continues through the rest of the work
week, however there is too much uncertainty to nail down specific
timing and threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ045-048-051-242000-
Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
248 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Fire danger will be in the very high category today for Jones County.

Isolated severe storms are possible through this early evening, with
2 inch plus diameter hail and damaging winds the main threat.
Additional isolated strong to severe storms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Fire danger will be in the very high category Tuesday for Jones
County.

Isolated storms will continue into Tuesday with a low risk of severe
weather. An active pattern continues through the rest of the work
week, however there is too much uncertainty to nail down specific
timing and threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
135 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             4 N CRANDALL            45.21N 97.96W
08/22/2021  E1.00 INCH       DAY                SD   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
150 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S RICHMOND LAKE REC A 45.47N 98.62W
08/22/2021  M80 MPH          BROWN              SD   MESONET

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
211 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW RICHMOND LAKE REC 45.47N 98.64W
08/22/2021  M87 MPH          BROWN              SD   MESONET

            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
214 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S RICHMOND LAKE REC A 45.47N 98.62W
08/22/2021  M90 MPH          BROWN              SD   MESONET

            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. BROWN COUNTY
            LANDFILL SHOP #2.

&&

RV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             4 S MURDO               43.83N 100.70W
08/23/2021  M0.50 INCH       JONES              SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.).

&&

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
613 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

SDZ045-232345-
Jones SD-
613 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Jones
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Intersection of Highway 83 and White River, or 10 miles south of
Murdo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Westover around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 10075 4373 10074 4372 10079 4374 10079
      4374 10080 4389 10063 4380 10048 4375 10057
      4377 10059 4374 10062 4375 10065 4374 10067
      4373 10065 4371 10068 4372 10070 4371 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 229DEG 21KT 4373 10072

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lueck