Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
303 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

One area of convection was leaving the eastern part of the region
this afternoon with the next area yet to develop in central sd.
Dryline/surface trough in central sd will be the focus of scattered
thunderstorm development yet this afternoon. Satellite was beginning
to the show towering cu along this dryline. A narrow ribbon of
higher moisture and subsequent better instability was forming in
advance of this dry line as it moves east. The surface and ll winds
were strong this afternoon with good deep layer shear of over 50
knots. With cooling aloft and mid level lapse rates of up to 8C,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across
the cwa into the late evening. Some severe storms are expected with
large hail and damaging winds. With lower lcls in the slightly cooler
air along with good 0-1km winds, a tornado will be possible.
Otherwise, this will move quickly east by midnight with clear skies
and winds going light tonight. With the light winds, clearing skies,
and recent and expected rainfall, patchy to areas of fog are
expected to form across the eastern cwa. On Monday, the winds will
turn southeast and increase through the day as the next short wave
trough comes in from the west. Good waa in advance of this trough
will bring back chances of showers and storms to the region Monday
night. Monday will be mostly sunny with highs ranging from the mid
80s northeast cwa to the mid 90s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Tuesday will likely start off with some leftover pcpn in portions of
our eastern zones as a sfc low and upper s/w energy move eastward
exiting the forecast area. Weak ridging aloft and sfc high pressure
briefly build in late Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal to start off the period on Tuesday with
daytime readings in the 80s to low 90s. We look to cool off behind a
departing front on Wednesday with temps closer to average if not
just shy of late August norms. The remainder of the forecast that
takes us through the end of the upcoming weekend remains relatively
unchanged from previous forecast packages. The weather pattern will
remain a fairly active one with rounds of pcpn chances sprinkled
throughout each day. Successive s/w's of energy aloft in the
southwest oriented flow pattern combined with sfc frontal boundaries
and/or fropas will lead to maintaining PoPs Thursday through Sunday.
Though it remains to be clear this far out if any of these chances
will bring any meaningful rainfall to most areas of the CWA.
Temperature trends through the end of the week will have readings
holding close to if not just a bit below normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers and storms are expected to affect the ABR and ATY airports
at or in the vicinity early this afternoon before more showers and
storms develop later this afternoon and evening. This second round
of showers/storms could again affect ABR and ATY as the responsible
upper level lift and surface trough moves/pushes east. Otherwise,
gusty winds from the south southwest at 15 to 30 knots will become
west northwest into the early evening and then become light tonight.
With the recent rainfall, light winds, and clear skies tonight
expect some MVFR fog to form at both ABR and ATY with possible lower
IFR vsbys at times.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
337 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-037-051-230845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-
Deuel-Hand-Buffalo-
337 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region today. Some of
these may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ003-015-033>036-045-048-230845-
Corson-Dewey-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Jones-Lyman-
337 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 /237 AM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region today. Some of
these may be strong to severe. As winds increase, areas that do not
receive wetting rains in the thunderstorms will see fire danger rise
to very high this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
215 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             5 W WAUBAY              45.34N 97.41W
08/22/2021  E0.75 INCH       DAY                SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING.

&&

RV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

SDZ023-222100-
Deuel SD-
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Deuel
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brandt, or near Clear Lake, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Cochrane Rec Area around 350 PM CDT.
  Gary around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9663 4467 9677 4485 9645 4456 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 231DEG 43KT 4468 9663

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Lueck