Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
210 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This afternoon it appears a somewhat diffuse warm front is gradually
edging north through South Dakota. This front will likely continue
to gradually edge back north as LLJ develops during the evening.
Latest CAMS suggest that convection will fire up over or near south
central portions of the state toward evening, and then move
southeast. However, as WAA(LLJ) develops later this evening,
convective development will probably shift toward the NC/NE
portions of South Dakota. Pretty much the entire CWA remains under a
marginal risk for severe, with soundings still suggesting that wind
is the main threat. The greatest hail threat should occur with any
early evening activity, as later activity may become even more
elevated as boundary layer cooling leads to increasing MLCIN.

On Monday there may well be some lingering LLJ driven activity in
the morning, but expect most of this convection to die as LLJ
diurnally weakens. Later convection may favor northeast SD, and west
central MN. Sfc warm front will have likely lifted north of the CWA,
as somewhat weak looking boundary progresses east over the region.
Southwesterly winds ahead of the boundary may mix out drier
dewpoints all the way to the James valley, potentially limiting
CAPE, and therefore storm development. Conditions look better over
the far eastern CWA, where the LLJ will again focus WAA/lift. This
area stands the best chance of seeing convection late Monday and
Monday night. SPC hoisted a slight risk for areas east of the ABR
CWA. Temperatures will continue to creep up as heights aloft build
into early next week. By Tuesday, heat indices will likely be
heading north of 100F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Not much overall change with the depth of the heat wave Tuesday and
Wednesday with humidity centered across the eastern CWA, and despite
the initial lack of humidity, it looks like temperatures for the
Missouri valley will also fit in to the heat advisory criteria
fairly well. Overnight readings will fail to cool much with lows in
the 70s Wednesday morning. A east-west oriented boundary slips out
of North Dakota Wednesday, but the heat/humidity doesn't really get
shifted south until Thursday. Models try to generate some convection
associated with this boundary and an upper wave, however GFS BUFKIT
soundings show a layer of moisture around 14kft with a deep dry
layer so suspect this is overdone. The associated northwest flow
wave will suppress the upper ridge to the west, and put us back into
a northwest flow regime. Friday a plume of moisture coming up from
the Desert Southwest rounds the ridge, bringing us the best chance
for moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight, along with mostly
elevated smoke. Isolated to scattered storms are possible this
evening and overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-260845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
345 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 /245 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight,
especially over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.
Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon, mainly over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Damaging winds
should be the main threat.

Excessive heat is becoming increasingly likely Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
433 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SDZ045-252230-
Jones SD-
433 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 433 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Murdo, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Draper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Aberdeen.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 10085 4406 10090 4411 10078 4413 10038
      4387 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 273DEG 19KT 4403 10073

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