Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
712 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Precipitation chances through Monday will be the main forecast
challenge. Timing and placement of thunderstorms is low at this
time.

A broad upper level trough over the region will continue producing
pockets of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Convection is a little more widespread than Saturday due to slightly
better instability today with 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Even
though shear is lacking, a few storms could produce small hail. A
shortwave over North Dakota will slide across the region tonight,
perhaps bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
with pops from 6Z to 15Z Monday is low at this time. Pulse
thunderstorms will be possible once again during the mid morning
through the evening hours on Monday, especially over the eastern
CWA where SBCAPE could reach 1K J/kg. Once again, deep layer shear
is lacking, thus severe storms are not expected at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Other than a slight chance of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over our eastern counties, warm and dry weather should
prevail through this entire period and beyond. After highs mainly in
the mid 80s Tuesday, highs will be around 90 degrees or even the mid
90s by the weekend.

Taking a look at the 500mb map at 12Z Tuesday, the 500mb low over
northeastern Canada will still have a trough draped over Hudson Bay
and trough ND/MN/SD and into CO/NM. The high over southern British
Columbia will have a ridge through much of western Canada through
WA/OR/ID/NV. As time progresses, the trough over our area will
weaken, with the western ridge getting pushed across MT as a result
of a small low off the OR/WA coast during the Tuesday/Wednesday time
period. For us this will mean warmer air moving in. Average highs
this time of year are in the low to mid 80s, with Wednesday on
averaging 5 to 10 degrees above average. The 500mb high looks to
move over Saskatchewan/Manitoba/ND by Thursday night into the start
of the weekend. Any cut off low that develops with the trough looks
to stay well to our east now, closer to Great Lakes for the end of
the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals
through the TAF valid period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to work east and southeast in the region and could
impact the KPIR and KATY terminals early in the TAF valid period
with some temporary sub-VFR cigs/visbies from heavy rainfall.
There could be another batch of showers moving into the region
late tonight/early Monday morning. A more probable scenario
involves increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage later in the day
on Monday from daytime heating.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-280815-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
314 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 /214 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected. The main threat would be lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible. Lighting is the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
517 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

SDZ004-272245-
Campbell SD-
517 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Zeeland, or 19 miles northwest of Eureka, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Artas.

LAT...LON 4594 9972 4586 9972 4571 9983 4587 10009
      4594 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 298DEG 23KT 4592 9997

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
548 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

SDZ037-272300-
Hand SD-
548 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAND COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockham, or 15 miles southeast of Faulkton, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Hand
County.

LAT...LON 4488 9883 4479 9893 4489 9899 4490 9897
      4490 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 303DEG 10KT 4487 9892

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
749 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

SDZ008-011-280130-
Day SD-Roberts SD-
749 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS AND EAST
CENTRAL DAY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Agency Village, or 8 miles southwest of Sisseton, moving south at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.  There
is also the potential for a brief landspout tornado with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sisseton, Waubay, Peever, Ortley, Peever Flats Housing, Agency
Village, Finley Heights Housing, Enemy Swim Housing, Waubay Lake,
Minnewasta Lake, Rudebusch Corner, Blue Dog Lake, Waubay Wildlife Rec
Area, Enemy Swim Lake, Rush Lake, Campbell Slough, Dakota Connection
& Casino, Pickerel Lake Rec Area, Bitter Lake and Lake Traverse
Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4547 9680 4530 9715 4530 9722 4526 9723
      4522 9730 4540 9743 4574 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 338DEG 13KT 4556 9712

Telken