Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Surface/low level trough across central South Dakota this morning,
but more than likely its a weak push of warm advection responsible
for morning convection near the Pierre area. A southwest component
at 700mb and northwest at 500mb leading to a more or less eastward
migration with individual cells moving southeast. Elevated CAPE
maybe around 1000j/kg but thus far convection has been shallow and
sub-severe. Updated POPs/Wx and Sky to account for adding storms
to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

A weak trough will set up from southwest to northeast across the
state today. There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across
the southern tier of the forecast area associated with the trough
through tonight. Any precip will have a difficult time overcoming
the mid level dry air until later tonight. High pressure will also
build back in at the sfc this evening. Needless to say, llm will be
limited as will upper level support.

Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to persist under the
upper ridge through the short term with highs in the upper 80s to
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

The main initial focus in the long range will be on the building
heat early in the period followed by the potential for a bit a
cooler trend toward the end of the week. Heights will be increasing
Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Northern Plains. The eastern fringes of our CWA
may still benefit from a slightly cooler trend on Tuesday as a
cooler airmass associated with Canadian high pressure will be
hanging on across the western Great Lakes westward through MN.
Nevertheless, temps in the 90s for most the area Tuesday into
Wednesday remain likely. Wednesday still looks to be hottest day of
the period with readings pushing 100F as an afternoon thermal ridge
sets up over our area. Some deterministic guidance is pushing a cold
front down into our area as early as Wednesday afternoon, so this
could have a play on temps and something to keep tracking the next
couple days. There remains sporadic pcpn chances in the extended,
especially toward the latter half of the term, but nothing to really
get too excited about at this time in terms of it bringing anything
meaningful to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Terminals will remain VFR for VISBY/CIGS through the next 24-36
hours. Winds are northerly at KABR/KMBG and just turned at KPIR.
Winds at KATY are southwest but will slowly shift around to
northerly over the next few hours. All terminals will gradually
see winds become more northeast to easterly into Monday. Elevated
storms continue around the KPIR terminal, but there will be a
period later this afternoon with less coverage, only to re-develop
overnight. Confidence in coverage and location is not high enough
to include in the KPIR terminal after this initial round of
convection ends.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Connelly

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