River Flood Warning 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

274 
WGUS83 KABR 111141
FLSABR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...

  Grand River Near Little Eagle affecting Corson County.

SDC031-111245-
/O.CAN.KABR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210611T1141Z/
/LIES2.2.ER.210610T0656Z.210610T2346Z.210611T1330Z.NO/
541 AM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Grand River Near Little Eagle has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Grand River Near Little Eagle.
* At 5:30 AM MDT Friday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is below flood stage and will continue 
  falling over the next few days.


&&

LAT...LON 4564 10045 4555 10051 4559 10106 4575 10105
      4571 10069

$$

Telken

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
618 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

The main concerns in this forecast period will be today's high heat
and tonight's severe convection. Before getting into those topics,
early morning convection remains persistent across some of our
northeast zones in an area of modest instability and shear. A
weakness in an amplifying upper ridge and sfc boundary is
contributing to this activity. These cells are likely to persist the
next couple hours before waning after sunrise and could produce some
smaller hail and locally brief gusty winds.

Upper level s/w energy rotating into the northern High Plains from
an upper trough that will translate out of the Great Basin into the
northern Rockies/northern High Plains today and tonight. This
vigorous system will aid in deepening a sfc low across eastern MT/WY
today and help to lift the aforementioned sfc boundary back to the
north into ND during the daytime today. Strong and deep southerly
flow across our CWA will allow for llm to be retained through the
daytime heating. Sfc dew points should push into the mid to upper
60s to around 70s by midday and remain fairly consistent through
late afternoon/early evening. Given that high temps will once again
push well into the 90s to around 100 and these combined with the
humidity give most of our CWA heat index values of 100-105 this
afternoon. Therefore, a heat advisory will be needed for most of our
area from midday into early evening.

For tonight into Friday morning, the focus will turn to severe
convection potential for the entire forecast area. The previously
mentioned storm system taking shape west of the region during the
day will progress eastward into the Dakotas this evening and after
sunset. A strong cold front is progged to push into the western
Dakotas this evening and into our western zones as early as the late
evening hours or closer to the midnight hour. CAMs still remain
fairly consistent depicting more discrete supercell type storm modes
initially in the evening across western SD working eastward into the
Missouri valley by late evening. All the ingredients for severe
storms remain with high instability, strong deep layer shear and
steep mid lvl lapse rates. As mid level flow strengthens tonight,
the cold front will progress fairly steadily eastward across our
forecast area ahead of the s/w trough. Those discrete cells will
evolve into more of a squall line type scenario with this activity
rolling east through our central and eastern zones through the
overnight and early Friday morning. All severe hazards can be
expected initially with the discrete cells with very large hail,
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes all possible particularly
across our western CWA. As the system lines out in it's eastward
progress, the focused threat will shift to strong winds with any
severe convection. Some post-frontal strong winds, not associated
with the convection, are expected to kick in across the Missouri
valley through the early morning hours with gusts perhaps on the
order of 30-40 mph. This activity should begin to depart our eastern
zones through the morning hours on Friday with dry conditions once
again returning for the remainder of the period. The post frontal
airmass moving in during the day on Friday will be much more drier
and definitely cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

When the period opens Friday night, this pesky upper level ridge of
hot and dry/stable conditions has been subdued for the moment. But,
throughout the rest of the period upper level ridging is building
back over the region, bringing the hot and dry weather conditions
back to the CWA. There is one more back-door-type cold fropa progged
in the models to push southward through the CWA early next week.
Perhaps the airmass on easterly component mixing layer winds can
help take the edge off high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday.
But, currently, the probability of much of the CWA seeing highs in
the 90s from Sunday through Wednesday is a fairly healthy
probability, including next Wednesday being a day when there is
robust probabilistic potential of some portion of the CWA meeting or
exceeding the century mark! At present, at least there won't be a
ton of humidity accompanying the high heat next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Dry VFR conditions will prevail across the area today into this
evening. However, by late this evening, a line of thunderstorms
is expected to be approaching central South Dakota, possibly
reaching KMBG and KPIR by 03-05Z. Periods of sub-VFR cigs and
vsbys in heavy rain will be possible with these storms. Large
hail and damaging winds will also be possible with these storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for SDZ004>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-
     051.

MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-110945-
Traverse-Big Stone-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 /339 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A heat advisory is posted for most of central and northeast South
Dakota and west central Minnesota until 8 PM tonight. Afternoon heat
index values will climb to 100 or higher. For tonight, severe storms
with large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be lingering across northeast South
Dakota into west central Minnesota through Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SDZ003-110945-
Corson-
339 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe storms will be possible with large hail, damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes all possibilities tonight into early Friday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

SDZ007-011-100845-
Marshall SD-Day SD-
318 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN DAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 317 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roslyn, or 11 miles north of Webster, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roslyn, Fort Sisseton State Park, Opitz Lake and Cattail Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4542 9758 4554 9766 4567 9754 4550 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 229DEG 16KT 4550 9759

Dorn