Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

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WWUS45 KABQ 212030
WSWABQ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SNOW POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.A quick hitting upper low and cold front will impact north
central and northeast New Mexico later tonight and Monday,
bringing colder temperatures, gusty north winds and potential for
snow accumulations. Winds and snow will taper off by late Monday
afternoon. 

NMZ227-220400-
/O.UPG.KABQ.WS.A.0006.210322T0000Z-210323T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.WW.Y.0016.210322T0400Z-210323T0000Z/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
230 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches.
  Locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty north winds may create patchy areas
  of reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Travel will be impacted
  on west to east oriented highways including Highway 64 and 87
  from Raton to the Des Moines area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.

&&

$$

NMZ213>215-220400-
/O.NEW.KABQ.WW.Y.0016.210322T0400Z-210323T0000Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
230 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  above 8000 feet. 

* WHERE...Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the middle
Rio Grande Valley as well as the Sandia, Manzano and Gallinas
Mountains below snowpack. Strong west to southwest winds and low
humidity values are expected. Starting Monday, a series of storm
systems are expected to impact the state. The first will bring light
to moderate snows across the Northern Mountains and near Raton Pass
on Monday. The second system is poised to bring more widespread and
heavier snowfall Tuesday through Wednesday. A third system, though
uncertain, may bring even more light snow to the Northern Mountains
around Friday. Thus, the warm temperatures of this weekend will be a
distant memory as temperatures will be dropping below normal for much
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
High temperatures will cool some over central and western areas,
while remaining above normal everywhere except the Farmington area.
An upper level trough approaching the forecast area from the west
and northwest is forecast to form a closed upper level low pressure
system near the for corners briefly late tonight, then track east
southeastward across the forecast area on Monday. The approaching
system will produce scattered to isolated rain and mountain snow
showers, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms, mainly over northwest
areas today. Rain and snow will then become more widespread over
northern areas tonight as Pacific and backdoor cold fronts enter the
state causing the snow level to fall. The focus for precipitation on
Monday will be over north central and eastern areas as the backdoor
cold front pushes southward through Roswell. Instability and CAPE
look sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in the mix again on
Monday, except across northeast areas where easterly upslope flow
should be a bit more stable behind the front. The Tusas and Sangre
de Cristo Mountains should accumulate a few to several inches of
snow tonight and Monday with peak measurements reaching around 7
inches near the CO border. This is enough to warrant a Winter Storm
Watch for Bartlett and Johnson Mesas including Raton Pass.

Southwest winds will again become breezy to windy today with fire
weather concerns over central areas where humidities will be the
lowest. Breezy to windy conditions will return on Monday, but the
flow will shift out of north and northwest behind the cold fronts.
High temperatures on Monday will vary from a few to 21 degrees below
normal.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The first system will pull away from NM Monday evening and
precipitation will quickly end outside of a few stray showers
over/near the Northern Mountains. The back door cold front will
continue to slide southward across the eastern plains overnight, and
low temperatures will drop upwards of a dozen degrees compared to
the night before.

The next system will approach NM on Tuesday. This system is expected
to pack more of a punch as it will be colder, farther to the south,
and arrives with plenty of moisture. The system is expected to track
from northern AZ southeastward toward the Southwest Mountains of NM
Tuesday night, then eastward across south central portions of the
state on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a back door cold front will slide
into northeast and east central NM Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. Some showery activity is expected Tuesday across much of
northern and central NM ahead of the system. However, it appears
that a prolonged period of strong upward motion in a saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur near and north of the front Tuesday
night through Wednesday. As the front slides southward during the
day Wednesday, and upslope is enhanced along the east slopes of the
Central Mountain Chain, the focus for heaviest snow should move from
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, to east slope
areas along the Sandia, Manzano and Gallinas Mountains. The back
door front should also push through the gaps, allowing for easterly
upslope across the west central high terrain and a potential
enhancement for snowfall there. Snow is not out of the question for
the ABQ and SAF metro areas either. All-in-all, deteriorating
conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday, with
significant snowfall possible for much of the CWA.

The system shifts east of the state Wednesday evening, and
precipitation is expected to diminish quickly. Yet another system
may impact northern NM Thursday night into Friday. More snow would
be possible for the Northern Mountains, but confidence is low on the
exact track of the system.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A storm system will cross the state from the west and northwest
tonight and Monday with precipitation favoring northern and eastern
areas. Southwest winds ahead of the system will become breezy to
windy today, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for central
areas where humidities will be the lowest. Will cancel Fire Weather
Watches across west central and east central areas because
humidities are expected to be a little too high, but there should be
pockets of critical conditions both places. Temperatures will fall
below normal areawide on Monday, when breezy to windy conditions
will return as the flow shifts out of the northwest.

A stronger upper level low pressure system will cross from the west
northwest with widespread snow accumulation Tuesday through
Wednesday. This will be an easterly upslope flow event with wetting
precipitation across the mountains, much of the east, and portions
of west central NM. The rest of the week looks warmer and drier.
Winds will probably strengthen again Thursday as a storm system
crosses the central Rockies, and there may be some snow with it in
the northern mountains.

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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A disturbance approaching the Four Corners from the northwest will
spread scattered to isolated rain and snow showers across the area
from the Tusas Mountains westward tonight, then across much of the
area along and north of I-40 on Sunday. There will probably also be
some thunderstorms west of the northern mountains on Sunday. The
snow level will lift from near 6800 feet across the northwest tonight
to 7500-8500 feet across northern NM on Sunday. An inch or two of
snow accumulation is expected around Chama and the Chuska Mountains
tonight and Sunday. Southwest winds will also become breezy to windy
on Sunday with fire weather concerns across central and southern
areas. If you notice any fires, please report them.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  31  54  30 /  20  20   5   0
Dulce...........................  56  23  51  23 /  30  30  30   5
Cuba............................  60  27  49  25 /  10  20  20   0
Gallup..........................  60  22  51  22 /   5  20   5   0
El Morro........................  59  23  48  22 /   0  10  10   0
Grants..........................  64  22  53  21 /   0  10  10   0
Quemado.........................  63  26  48  25 /   0   5  10   0
Magdalena.......................  68  31  54  29 /   0   5   5   0
Datil...........................  62  27  48  25 /   0   5   5   0
Reserve.........................  68  22  59  23 /   0   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  71  35  63  30 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  50  19  45  19 /  30  40  50  10
Los Alamos......................  58  32  47  31 /  10  10  30   5
Pecos...........................  60  30  49  27 /   5  20  40   5
Cerro/Questa....................  53  35  43  25 /  10  40  60  10
Red River.......................  47  25  38  19 /  20  50  70  20
Angel Fire......................  48  18  37  14 /  10  50  80  20
Taos............................  58  27  47  21 /  10  30  50  10
Mora............................  59  27  45  23 /   5  20  50  10
Espanola........................  66  32  55  30 /  10  20  30   5
Santa Fe........................  61  33  49  28 /  10  20  40   5
Santa Fe Airport................  66  29  53  25 /  10  10  30   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  37  57  36 /  10  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  36  58  34 /   5  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  35  60  32 /   5  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71  35  58  33 /   5  10  10   0
Belen...........................  74  32  61  32 /   5   5   5   0
Bernalillo......................  72  34  61  32 /   5  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  73  33  60  30 /   5   5   5   0
Corrales........................  73  35  60  31 /   5  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  73  34  60  29 /   5   5   5   0
Placitas........................  66  37  54  33 /  10  10  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  71  35  59  33 /   5  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  78  35  63  34 /   0   5   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  34  48  30 /  10  10  20   0
Tijeras.........................  65  33  52  30 /  10  10  20   0
Edgewood........................  66  30  53  26 /   5   5  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  27  54  22 /   5  10  20   0
Clines Corners..................  63  29  49  25 /   0  10  20   0
Mountainair.....................  66  30  52  29 /   0   5  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  66  32  52  29 /   0   5  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  72  37  58  34 /   0   5  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  64  35  51  31 /   0  10  10   0
Capulin.........................  60  27  34  20 /  10  60  80  10
Raton...........................  65  28  41  20 /  10  50  70  10
Springer........................  66  29  44  22 /   5  40  60  10
Las Vegas.......................  63  30  46  21 /   0  20  50   5
Clayton.........................  68  32  39  28 /  10  60  60  10
Roy.............................  67  32  45  25 /   5  20  50   5
Conchas.........................  73  37  51  29 /   0  10  50   5
Santa Rosa......................  72  38  52  30 /   0  10  40   5
Tucumcari.......................  76  40  52  30 /   0  10  40   5
Clovis..........................  76  40  56  30 /   0  10  50   5
Portales........................  78  42  60  30 /   0  10  40   5
Fort Sumner.....................  78  40  58  32 /   0  10  40   0
Roswell.........................  84  46  68  34 /   0  10  20   0
Picacho.........................  76  42  60  34 /   0   0  10   0
Elk.............................  74  38  60  32 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ106-107.

Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ227.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

NMZ201>241-221100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
320 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
the middle Rio Grande Valley as well as the Sandia, Manzano and
Gallinas Mountains below snowpack due to strong winds and low
humidities. West to southwesterly wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph
will be possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The first in a series of storm systems will arrive Monday. Modest
snow amounts are expected over the Northern Mountains, with slightly
higher amounts possible near Raton Pass. Another stronger and colder
storm system will impact the state Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain
and snow showers will develop across much of the area on Tuesday.
Then, widespread snow will develop from the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains eastward Tuesday night, before spreading southwestward to
the east slopes of the Sandia and Manzano Mountains early Wednesday.
Snow will also be possible across the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metro
areas as well as portions of west central New Mexico Wednesday, but
easterly winds will complicate amounts in the Rio Grande Valley.
Nonetheless, deteriorating road conditions are expected, with the
greatest impacts expected along and east of the central mountain
chain Tuesday night through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts this week through
the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq
or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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