Winter Storm Watch 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds aloft associated with the jet stream will continue to
persist over the central and southern Rockies, including New Mexico.
This will keep repeated weather disturbances moving over the area
with more bouts of strong wind, cooler temperatures and batches of
precipitation moving into some parts of the state. The strongest
winds will tend to impact the high terrain areas and also the eastern
plains with surges in wind speed expected tonight into Tuesday and
again early on Wednesday. Precipitation generally stays focused over
western and north central New Mexico today through Thursday. The
final weather system in this parade of upper level disturbances will
overtake New Mexico Friday into Saturday when precipitation will
become a bit more widespread, especially over western and central New
Mexico. Colder than normal temperatures will also accompany this
weather system by New Year's Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A broad long wave trough will persist over the western US with
multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. There will be a
chance of rain showers and mountain snow showers each period, but
precipitation chances will increase significantly tonight and
Tuesday over western and north central areas as a stronger shortwave
trough bearing significant moisture approaches and eventually
crosses northern NM from the west. Will issue a Winter Storm Watch
for several inches to near a foot of snow accumulation in the
northern mountains and Chuska mountains tonight through Wednesday
morning. The Tusas Mountains should be the big winner with nearly 2
feet of snow accumulation above Chama.

The polar jet stream will remain over mainly southern and eastern NM
through Tuesday as well. Thanks to cooler temperatures and abundant
high clouds, atmospheric mixing won't be as strong today. The main
concern for strong wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range will be over
the south central mountains, where 700 mb speeds are forecast to
peak from 50-65 KT today, then 55-70 KT tonight. Will issue a Wind
Advisory for the Ruidoso and Dunken areas today, and a High Wind
Watch for that area tonight into early Tuesday morning. Sky cover is
forecast to decrease over eastern areas on Tuesday, while a decent
lee trough persists. This will probably result in the central
mountain chain and eastern plains experiencing west and southwest
wind gusts in the 35-55 mph range on Tuesday.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The southwesterly jet will remain over NM Tuesday night with the
next progressive ripple in the flow set to arrive over northern parts
of the state early Wednesday morning. After having only briefly
decreased in speed Tuesday evening, mid level flow will ramp up again
toward dawn Wednesday as the trough aloft approaches and induces a
stronger gradient over NM. Speeds of 45 to 65 kt would be common at
700 mb, not as vigorous as yesterday and preceding events, but stout
nonetheless. Coupled with a deepening surface low over the OK/TX
panhandles by midday Wednesday, more wind advisories and perhaps some
high terrain high wind warnings will likely be warranted again. A
faint subtropical fetch of moisture will struggle to precede the
Wednesday morning trough, but available dynamics and perpetual moist
westerly flow will still continue to yield precipitation for western
to north central zones with an increase Tuesday night into early in
the morning hours before dwindling. The winter storm watch will
will continue to cover the threat for several inches of accumulation
in the northern and northwestern mountains through this time. A
pronounced thermal trough aloft will also accompany this ripple, and
daytime highs Wednesday will likely remain near to slightly below
average in western and central zones while the eastern plains hover
above normal amid the compressional heating from the downsloping
winds.

As a very cold core low spins over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, yet
another shortwave perturbation will orbit, rounding the CA coast
late Wednesday and closing into a low offshore by Thursday. This low
will be the next feature of interest for NM weather, putting a
bookend on a monotonous and relentless windy pattern over the Land of
Enchantment. A brief reduction in winds aloft is expected early
Thursday, behind the Wednesday trough and prior to the subtropical
jet restrengthening with the offshore low. Still, breezy to windy
conditions will be fairly common Thursday with the central mountain
chain to the eastern plains observing the stronger speeds. Showers
may dwindle over northern and western high terrain, but may not fully
cease Thursday.

By Friday, the offshore low will quickly eject toward the American
Southwest, beginning to fill in some as it does so while better
subtropical moisture is drawn up ahead of and into it. There are
still discrepancies with the speed at which the feature will eject
and subsequently arrive into NM, and this could be heavily dependent
on another northern stream clipper feature. The clipper wave diving
out of B.C./Alberta could phase with the low offshore of CA or just
slightly lag behind it. Regardless, deterministic models still
depict an increase in precipitation, especially western and central
NM zones with even eastern zones at least having a chance for
precipitation after being left dry for so long. A backdoor cold front
could also enter northeast NM as early as Saturday midday, and the
trough would be exiting by Saturday evening with much colder air
settling in its wake for Sunday.

44/52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A long wave trough will persist over the western US through Saturday
with daily precipitation chances over western and sometimes central
parts of the forecast area. Seven Day QPF amounts look to vary from
a few hundredths of an inch to near a half inch at lower elevations
west of the central mountain chain, and from around a half inch to
1.50 inches in the mountains, except for near 3 inches in the Tusas
Mountains and only around a half inch in the Sandias and Manzanos.
Two rounds of widespread and potentially heavy precipitation are
expected, both of which will feature mainly snow, tonight through
Wednesday morning, then Friday through Saturday. The long wave
trough will also keep a persistent polar jet stream over the state
with daily rounds of breezy to windy conditions. Humidities will
generally remain above 15 percent, except for pockets of lower
values and locally critical fire weather conditions east of the
central mountain chain today.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Westerly winds with gusts near 25kt will persist along and just east
of the Central Mountain Chain tonight. Periods of MVFR stratus may
develop at KGUP through early morning, but otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail through Monday afternoon. However, west to southwest
winds will pick up again Monday afternoon area wide, though will not
be as strong as today. Gusts between 25 and 35 kts will be common
though. These breezy conditions will persist overnight Monday as
another trough approaches NM. Moist orographic lift will once again
allow for snow to develop by 06Z Mon across portions of northern and
western NM, favoring the high terrain. Mt obscurations will be likely
in snow and blowing snow.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  30  39  26 /  10  40  50  70
Dulce...........................  39  22  33  19 /  20  80  80  80
Cuba............................  42  27  34  20 /   0  30  50  60
Gallup..........................  43  29  35  26 /   0  40  60  70
El Morro........................  41  28  32  22 /   0  30  50  60
Grants..........................  45  29  36  22 /   0  20  30  50
Quemado.........................  45  29  38  24 /   0  20  30  50
Magdalena.......................  50  31  43  27 /   0  10   5  30
Datil...........................  44  29  38  24 /   0  20  10  40
Reserve.........................  49  25  41  22 /   0  50  50  70
Glenwood........................  50  29  45  29 /   0  50  50  70
Chama...........................  33  16  27  16 /  30  90  80  70
Los Alamos......................  40  30  34  25 /   0  30  50  60
Pecos...........................  42  25  35  23 /   0  40  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  36  23  31  19 /   5  70  60  60
Red River.......................  29  17  23  15 /  10  70  60  50
Angel Fire......................  34  12  28  19 /   5  60  60  60
Taos............................  41  23  36  18 /   5  50  50  50
Mora............................  46  23  38  22 /   0  40  40  50
Espanola........................  47  29  41  24 /   0  20  40  50
Santa Fe........................  41  27  36  26 /   0  30  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  44  28  39  25 /   0  20  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  35  42  29 /   0  10  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  33  46  31 /   0   5   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  30  48  27 /   0   5   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  33  46  30 /   0  10  10  30
Belen...........................  53  31  50  27 /   0   5   0  20
Bernalillo......................  50  32  45  30 /   0  10  10  40
Bosque Farms....................  52  29  49  25 /   0   5   0  20
Corrales........................  50  32  46  29 /   0  10  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  52  29  49  24 /   0   5   0  20
Placitas........................  47  34  41  30 /   0  20  20  50
Rio Rancho......................  49  32  45  30 /   0  10  10  30
Socorro.........................  55  32  53  29 /   0   0   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  31  38  28 /   0  20  20  50
Tijeras.........................  47  30  41  29 /   0  20  10  40
Edgewood........................  48  30  41  28 /   0  20  10  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  28  43  25 /   0  10  10  30
Clines Corners..................  46  26  39  24 /   0   5   5  30
Mountainair.....................  48  30  44  28 /   0  10   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  30  45  28 /   0   5   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  54  33  48  33 /   0   0   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  52  29  44  31 /   0  10   0  20
Capulin.........................  48  26  44  21 /   0   5   0   5
Raton...........................  50  24  46  18 /   0  10   5  10
Springer........................  54  27  48  20 /   0   5   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  49  28  42  24 /   0  10  10  20
Clayton.........................  56  32  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  54  31  49  27 /   0   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  61  35  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  35  52  30 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  39  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  36  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  37  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  36  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  40  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  37  54  34 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  61  36  52  33 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for the following zones... NMZ226-240.

High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Tuesday morning for the
following zones... NMZ226-240.

&&

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