Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Less active today with showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
southern border counties. This trend will continue with less coverage
Monday and Tuesday, confined to the southwest and south central high
terrain. The high pressure center aloft over southern CA is culprit
for the drying trend. It will move into NV Monday, UT Tuesday,
approach the four corners region Wednesday and settle over NM from
late Thursday through next weekend! Wednesday through Friday look to
be dry and very warm to hot area wide, with high temperatures
flirting near records. Perhaps a little moisture will seep into the
southwest mountains Saturday, and the western and northern mountains
Sunday, but a vast majority of our forecast area will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Activity was somewhat slower to flare up today compared to Saturday.
Drier air spreading farther into northern and central New Mexico
this afternoon has limited the majority of showers and storms to
areas south of I-40. In fact, low level moisture has been mixing out
with dewpoints falling into the 30s over portions of the northwest
and north central. Slow storm motion may still lead to locally heavy
rainfall which could result in flash flooding this afternoon and
evening. A similar pattern is expected on Labor Day although there
will be a little less activity south of I-40. With low level
moisture hanging on in the eastern plains, there may be a return of
patchy fog late tonight. Although confidence is low, have decided it
was worth a mention in the grids.

Labor Day high temperatures will be slightly warmer overall, and
near to about 5 degrees warmer than normal. Lows will run several
degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A period of dry and well above normal high temperatures will settle
in this week over NM. The upper high over southern CA will move north
into NV Monday and UT Tuesday. It will reach the four corners region
Wednesday night, then the high will stall right over NM for a few
days. A few storms may remain over the southwest and south central
mountains Tuesday afternoon, then Wednesday through Friday will be
dry and hot with record challenging highs. Models had previously
taken the upper high to the east next weekend, but now most keep the
high over or very near NM. A little moisture could get pulled
northwest into our Southwest Mountains next Saturday, with that
moisture expanding north and east over all the western and northern
mountains next Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air spreading farther into northern and central New Mexico
this afternoon has limited the majority of showers and storms to
areas south of I-40. A similar pattern is expected on Labor Day
although there may be a little less activity south of I-40. Cell
motion for the rest of this afternoon and evening will be a slow
drift to the southwest, except for northeast NM where any storms
will move to the south or southeast. Storm motion on Labor Day will
be from east to west south of I-40 and from northwest to southeast
elsewhere. The slow storm motion could lead to locally heavy rain
and flash flooding.

A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen over the Great Basin
and across New Mexico this week. Drier and warmer weather with highs
as much as 5-10 degrees above than normal are forecast in
conjunction with moderate to high Haines but relatively light winds.
A front will push southward into the eastern plains Tuesday and
Tuesday night, but appears dry until it reaches southeast New
Mexico. Overnight humidity recoveries are forecast to worsen mid to
late this week especially north of I-40 where minimum humidities
will be less than 15 percent. The upper high is now forecast to
smother New Mexico through the upcoming weekend, before a trough in
the westerlies brings potential for more than a random and isolated
shower or storm.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Lingering MVFR cigs over portions of ern NM at 17Z to improve by
19Z. Upper ridge continues to build over NV with dry air spreading
farther south into nrn and central NM. Isold tstms expected along
the central mt chain and over ne NM north of I-40 with sct tstms
south of I-40 between 19Z and 06/02Z. Brief mt obscurations and MVFR
cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms. Potential for patchy br along the
east slopes of the central mt chain and over east central and se NM
aft 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  90  52  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  85  42  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  48  84  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  43  89  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  46  84  47  86 /   0   5   5   0
Grants..........................  47  86  47  89 /   0   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  51  84  50  88 /   5  10   5   5
Magdalena.......................  56  83  56  86 /  10  10   5   5
Datil...........................  51  81  50  83 /  10  10   5   5
Reserve.........................  54  86  54  91 /  20  20  10  10
Glenwood........................  59  87  60  93 /  20  20  10  10
Chama...........................  41  80  42  85 /   0   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  54  83  55  85 /   5  10   5   5
Pecos...........................  53  82  54  86 /  20  10   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  44  83  42  86 /   5  10   5   0
Red River.......................  41  73  38  79 /   5  10   5   5
Angel Fire......................  37  76  34  78 /  10  10   5   5
Taos............................  47  85  45  88 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  48  80  49  82 /  20  10   5   5
Espanola........................  50  88  50  93 /   5   5   0   5
Santa Fe........................  55  84  55  86 /  10   5   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  55  87  54  90 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  85  61  92 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  88  63  94 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  90  56  96 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  88  61  94 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63  90  61  95 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  90  58  97 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  60  90  59  94 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  60  89  60  96 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  90  61  95 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  59  87  58  90 /   5   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  61  89  60  94 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  89  62  94 /  10   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  83  56  84 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  57  85  57  88 /  10   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  55  85  54  88 /  10   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  86  52  89 /  10   5   5   0
Clines Corners..................  54  81  54  84 /  20   5   5   5
Mountainair.....................  55  84  55  86 /  20   5   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  56  85  56  85 /  20   5   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  60  85  60  89 /  20  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  53  78  56  80 /  30  20   5  20
Capulin.........................  53  83  52  84 /   5  10   5   0
Raton...........................  52  87  50  90 /  10  10   5   0
Springer........................  51  85  51  90 /  10  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  51  82  51  87 /  20  10  10   0
Clayton.........................  60  89  59  92 /  10   5   5   0
Roy.............................  55  86  54  89 /  20  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  58  87  58  95 /  20   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  60  88  59  90 /  20   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  62  91  64  96 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  85  62  90 /  20   5   0   0
Portales........................  63  86  63  93 /  20   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  88  63  92 /  20   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  66  89  64  95 /  20   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  83  60  88 /  20  10   5  10
Elk.............................  56  79  57  86 /  20  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 AM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NMZ201>241-061000-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
306 AM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog across portions of eastern NM this morning may reduce
visibilities below one-half mile at times and result in localized
hazardous travel.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms over the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and areas south of the I-40 corridor will produce locally
heavy rainfall with localized areas of flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the central and
southern high terrain Monday. A couple storms may produce brief heavy
rainfall and strong outflow winds.

Near-record high temperatures will develop over the region Tuesday
through Saturday as an unseasonably strong area of high pressure
builds into New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
216 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NMZ234-235-052045-
Curry County-Quay County-
216 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN QUAY
AND NORTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grady, or 29 miles north of Clovis, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grady and Broadview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 10321 3481 10313 3469 10335 3487 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 060DEG 14KT 3484 10328

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NMZ234-235-052145-
Curry County-Quay County-
313 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUAY AND
CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 307 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grady, or 25 miles northwest of Clovis, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Quay and
central Curry Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 10336 3474 10328 3468 10327 3460 10349
      3478 10353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 083DEG 8KT 3475 10339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KJ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
415 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NMZ220-052245-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
415 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Bingham, or 23 miles southeast of Socorro, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Socorro County.

This includes Highway 380 between Mile Markers 13 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should seek sturdy shelter until this storm
passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 10655 3379 10646 3367 10674 3383 10682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 062DEG 14KT 3381 10660

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
434 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NMZ220-052300-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
434 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 434 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Bosque Del Apache Refuge, or 29 miles south of
Socorro, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Socorro County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 10703 3376 10670 3360 10660 3347 10675
      3347 10687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 062DEG 14KT 3365 10674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40