Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites tonight through mid-
Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds that may be occurring will diminish
quickly after sunset. Isolated storms will persist across the Upper
Gila eastward into the lower Rio Grande Valley until 03-06Z. Better
coverage of storms are anticipated, especially along the Continental
Divide, on Thursday afternoon. For the terminal sites, KGUP has the
best chances for direct storm impacts, followed by KLVS/KSAF, then
KFMN/KAEG through 00Z/Aug 27. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern
with the stronger activity along with mountain top obscurations and
rather brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities. DPorter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will remain near and above normal for the next 7
days. Daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected Thursday through the middle of next week with a risk of
locally heavy rainfall each day. Storm motions will vary day to day
depending on the position of an upper level high pressure system that
will migrate from the Four Corners at the end of this week eastward
onto western parts of the Great Plains early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Very dry air across the northern two thirds of NM this morning led
to chilly low temps within northern and western valleys. 700-500mb
layer flow will become more southeasterly tonight and allow deeper
moisture to return northward into NM. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough will pass thru the central Rockies w/ a 40-50 kt speed max
near the Four Corners. The combination of better moisture w/ weak
forcing aloft, strong afternoon heating, and orographics will lead
to scattered storms Thursday. Slow-moving storms w/ PWATs near 1"
will allow for locally heavy rainfall along the Cont Dvd. The most
recent NBM solution shows SHRA/TS lingering into Thursday night
while the weak upper jet passes thru northern NM and southern CO.

GUYER

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
An upper level trough passing eastward over the northern and central
Rockies will draw better moisture north and northwestward into NM
with a significant uptick in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the northwest half of the forecast area starting
Thursday. Daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms are then expected to continue through the end of the
week as a broad high pressure system over the east coast allows a
moderate plume of monsoon moisture to stream north and northeastward
over the forecast area. The northwest and southeast corners of the
forecast area will probably remain dry, but locations in between will
have a risk of locally heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening.

Over the weekend a new upper level high will develop near the Four
Corners shifting the movement of scattered to isolated storms slowly
toward the south, southwest, and southeast off the high terrain each
afternoon and evening. Storms will then begin moving toward the west
and north Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper high migrates eastward
over western portions of the Great Plains. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions today will transition toward more typical
late summer weather beginning Thursday. Moisture trickling north
into the area beneath a slow-moving upper level high center will
bring isolated to scattered showers and storms thru the weekend.
Each passing afternoon of locally heavy rainfall will elevate the
risk for flash flooding on recent burn scars. Max temps will cool
closer to normal for late August and overnight humidity recoveries
will improve. Extended guidance is hinting at a return to dry and
hot conditions next week. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 AM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

NMZ201>241-261000-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
236 AM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Similarly to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the
Southwest and South Central Mountains. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Shower and thunderstorm activity will ramp back up starting on
Thursday and will continue into early next week. Heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be possible Friday through the weekend
due to slow and erratic storm motions. Gusty winds from thunderstorm
outflow will be possible each day as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
649 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

NMZ230-260115-
Union County-
649 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM MDT...

At 649 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Kenton, or 35 miles north of Clayton, moving northeast
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Union
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 10300 3678 10315 3697 10347 3700 10342
      3700 10301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 222DEG 6KT 3696 10316

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA