Alert archive / New Mexico / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM
NWS Albuquerque, NM issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2021, 1:37 PM MDT for Harding County, New Mexico. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 2021, 1:37 PM MDT (19:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 2021, 2:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 23 min
- Issued by
- NWS Albuquerque, NM
County Harding County, NM
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 387 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1831 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 38 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 12:18 PM MDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 12:18 PM MDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, then scattered to isolated activity is forecast to linger after midnight along and east of the central mountain chain. A loosely organized high pressure system aloft will result in slow and erratic storm motions. Meanwhile, a moist backdoor front will continue advancing southwestward across eastern and central areas triggering thunderstorms with wet microbursts and locally heavy rainfall. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening with a moderately gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley from Taos southward through Santa Fe and Albuquerque. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm coverage will ramp up this weekend, especially across the northeast quarter later today and areawide Sunday and Sunday night. A moist backdoor cold front pushing into the northeast part of New Mexico will help to focus locally heavy thunderstorm rainfall there this afternoon. The front will then press south and west tonight through Sunday with showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread areawide. Locally heavy rainfall will result in an elevated flash flood threat to close out the weekend. An active monsoon pattern will persist into Monday and Tuesday before a transition to fewer storms by the latter half of next week. High temperatures near to slightly below average today will trend 5 to 15 degrees cooler on Sunday and remain below average through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... After a break in the extent of showers and thunderstorms Friday, convection will become more widespread again through this weekend. The culprit for the increased activity is a back door cold front that will enter northeast NM this morning, stall this afternoon, then move quickly south and west tonight, reaching the Rio Grande Valley around midnight. Moderate wind speeds are expected through the gaps and passes of the central mountain chain. Favored areas for thunderstorms today is the northern mountains, but especially the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The northeast will be favored tonight behind the cold front. We have decided to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include all of the northeast highlands, and the northeast plains, and have the watch continue until 6:00am Sunday. Sunday should be even more active with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed Sunday. The exception could be in the northeast, where conditions will become more stable. CHJ LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... ...Flash flood potential to remain elevated Sunday PM through Tuesday especially for areas between the Divide and east slopes of the central mountain chain... High grade monsoon pattern continues Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Synoptic-scale frontal boundary should reach the Continental Divide later Sunday becoming effectively stationary Sunday night along or just west of the Divide. Atmospheric moisture levels in wake of this easterly push will be well-above average. Forecast PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.4 inches are nearly two sigmas above the mean for August 1st. Steering winds will be very weak and generally from the north with the upper-level ridge near the NM/AZ line. Slow-moving storms capable of intense heavy rainfall will be of particular concern given that low-level forcing for lift will be quite efficient well after dark Sunday evening in wake of the front especially along the east slopes of the central mountain chain as well as between the Divide and Rio Grande Valley. Going into Monday and Tuesday, an impressive and broad 850-500mb theta-e plume modeled between the Divide and east slopes of the central mountain chain. Slow-moving storms capable of locally heavy rainfall will again be a concern. At the same time, a weak disturbance modeled to top the upper ridge on Monday before drifting back to the south or southeast and over the area Tuesday- Tuesday night. The 00Z GFS now trapping this feature over the area through Wednesday while the ECMWF is less defined. Either way, Wednesday appears to be a transition to what should be a drier/warmer pattern to close out next week as the upper shifts back to the east and builds slightly over NM Thursday through Saturday. But moisture though trending downward in quality will remain sufficient for at least isolated to scattered diurnal convection or we'll call it a lower grade monsoon forecast. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be no significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period. After a break in the convection Friday, things will ramp back up this weekend. A back door cold front will bring a fresh supply of low level moisture to the northeast today and over much of the area Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread both days, with heavy rain likely and flash flooding a big concern. Not much change is forecast through the first half of next week. Some drying should take place later next week as high pressure to the west tries to move over NM. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ212>215-227>232. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 4:35 AM MDT, 9 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 435 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021 NMZ201>241-011045- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 435 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the overnight. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A significant increase storm coverage and flash flood potential can be expected Sunday into Monday, especially between the Continental Divide to the high plains of eastern New Mexico. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become intense at times. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. 41
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 1:37 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021
NMZ228-230>232-312000-
Eastern San Miguel County-Far Northeast Highlands-Harding
County-Union County-
137 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL...
HARDING...WEST CENTRAL UNION...EASTERN MORA AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...
At 137 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles northwest of Ute Lake State Park to 12
miles southeast of Springer. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Wagon Mound, Roy, Mosquero, Abbott, Bueyeros, Chicosa Lake State
Park, Solano, Mills, Bell Ranch and Yates.
This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 388 and 402.
&&
LAT...LON 3527 10379 3574 10438 3578 10438 3578 10443
3610 10484 3643 10430 3600 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 043DEG 17KT 3557 10369 3620 10449
33The office that day
Everything else NWS Albuquerque, NM issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 7:44 PM MDT | Flash Flood Watch | ABQ | Colfax, Harding, Mora, Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Santa Fe and 2 more | 30 hr |
| Jul 31, 12:24 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Rio Arriba, Sandoval | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 12:53 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | ABQ | Mora | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 1:03 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Taos | 117 min |
| Jul 31, 1:13 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Harding, Union | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 2:02 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Santa Fe | 118 min |
| Jul 31, 2:12 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Lincoln | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 2:24 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | ABQ | Mora | 36 min |
| Jul 31, 3:13 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | ABQ | Sandoval, Santa Fe | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 3:24 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Harding | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 3:26 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Harding, San Miguel | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 3:32 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Colfax | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 3:42 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | ABQ | San Miguel | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 4:04 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | ABQ | Harding | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 4:26 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | San Miguel | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 5:37 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | ABQ | Torrance | 23 min |
| Jul 31, 5:48 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Guadalupe | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 5:58 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Colfax | 3 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in New Mexico, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.