Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Plenty of monsoon moisture will remain over New Mexico through the
rest of the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping each afternoon and evening across western
and central New Mexico. While storm coverage will reduce some next
week, thunderstorms will still favor the western and northern high
terrain of New Mexico while very few storms will develop in the
eastern plains. Temperatures will undergo a slight warming trend into
next week, but readings in western parts of the state will tend to
stay slightly below average while eastern areas remain warmer and
closer to late July averages with highs in the 90's.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The upper low swirling over west central NM is nearing the AZ
border. Energy rotating around the low will result in it getting
stretched to the southeast, with the low reforming in southeast AZ
this evening or early tonight. But this will not mean any loss
of moisture, with showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain
this afternoon and evening, especially over western areas. We
will continue with the Flash Flood Watch through midnight. The
convection will diminish later tonight. High pressure over central
TX will move west Sunday, with the center taking shape around the
TX Panhandle. The flow aloft will sharply change to the south and
southeast, providing a influx of moisture from Mexico and west TX.
This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday midday into the night. Flash flooding will remain a major
concern over western and central areas, where the majority of the
convection will occur. Chances on the eastern plains will be more
isolated due to it's closeness to the upper high. Thunderstorms will
diminish Sunday night.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH )...
Upper level high pressure will be centered over Wyoming on Monday,
gradually broadening and strengthening to the northeast of New Mexico
through the rest of the week ahead. The high will likely reach peak
strength between Wednesday and Friday over Kansas, boasting 500 mb
heights close to 597 decameters through this time frame. This will
continue to feed an easterly wind aloft into much of NM with some
relatively drier air periodically wrapping into the state, but PWATs
per the GEFS are advertised to generally stay at or above average.
This flow will not be optimal for the plains, carrying storms
westward and therefore minimal POPs remain in the extended forecast
for these eastern zones. Higher (likely) POPs will be retained over
the western and northern high terrain with scattered coverage in
surrounding zones each day, and surface dewpoints in the upper 40's
to 50's and PWATs within small deviations of 1.0 inch will continue
to support locally heavy rainfall. There is an easterly wave
depicted by deterministic members, crossing the Big Bend area
Wednesday night and moving into Chihuahua early Thursday, but this
appears to be too far removed to offer any large scale forcing for
increased precipitation.

CHJ/52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active stretch of days with good chances for wetting storms will
persist into early week with daytime temperatures generally at or
below normal. Heavy rain may result in flooding on/near recent burn
scars through early week. Chances for wetting rain will decrease and
temperatures will trend up from mid to late week as the upper high
expands over the area and steers a Monsoon moisture plume further
west over Arizona and far western New Mexico.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Another active afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms,
with the central and western TAF sites most likely to be impacted
with short- lived MVFR conditions this afternoon/evening. Brief IFR
conditions can not be ruled out with the strongest storms. Patchy
mountain obscurations will increase in area this afternoon as
convection continues to develop. Patchy MVFR cigs may redevelop late
tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  86  64  88 /  50  30  30  40
Dulce...........................  50  83  50  84 /  60  60  50  60
Cuba............................  54  80  55  81 /  40  60  50  50
Gallup..........................  56  80  56  83 /  70  70  40  40
El Morro........................  53  77  53  78 /  60  80  40  50
Grants..........................  55  80  55  82 /  50  70  50  50
Quemado.........................  55  77  55  79 /  60  80  40  50
Magdalena.......................  59  81  60  81 /  40  60  30  40
Datil...........................  54  75  55  77 /  70  70  30  50
Reserve.........................  55  81  55  86 /  70  80  30  50
Glenwood........................  61  84  63  87 /  70  70  30  40
Chama...........................  48  77  47  76 /  60  70  50  70
Los Alamos......................  56  80  57  81 /  50  70  40  60
Pecos...........................  55  81  55  81 /  40  70  40  60
Cerro/Questa....................  42  80  42  78 /  40  70  40  70
Red River.......................  44  73  44  69 /  40  70  40  70
Angel Fire......................  44  72  43  73 /  50  80  30  70
Taos............................  50  81  50  82 /  50  70  30  60
Mora............................  50  77  49  77 /  50  70  30  60
Espanola........................  58  87  61  87 /  50  60  40  50
Santa Fe........................  57  81  58  84 /  40  60  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  55  84  57  86 /  40  60  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  85  64  87 /  30  50  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  87  65  89 /  30  50  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  89  65  91 /  30  40  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  88  66  89 /  30  50  40  30
Belen...........................  63  89  64  90 /  30  50  30  30
Bernalillo......................  62  89  64  91 /  30  50  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  63  88  64  90 /  30  50  30  30
Corrales........................  63  89  65  91 /  30  50  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  64  89  64  90 /  30  50  30  30
Placitas........................  59  83  61  87 /  30  60  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  63  88  65  89 /  30  50  40  40
Socorro.........................  63  89  64  91 /  30  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  77  58  82 /  30  60  40  50
Tijeras.........................  58  82  59  85 /  30  60  40  50
Edgewood........................  54  83  56  85 /  40  60  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  85  55  86 /  30  60  30  40
Clines Corners..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  60  30  40
Mountainair.....................  55  80  56  83 /  30  60  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  56  80  57  84 /  40  60  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  61  85  63  87 /  30  60  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  56  78  57  80 /  30  70  20  50
Capulin.........................  55  83  53  83 /  40  60  30  60
Raton...........................  56  87  54  86 /  40  70  30  60
Springer........................  57  87  55  88 /  40  70  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  55  82  53  83 /  40  70  30  50
Clayton.........................  64  91  64  90 /  20  40  30  40
Roy.............................  60  87  58  86 /  30  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  64  94  65  93 /  20  40  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  63  90 /  20  40  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  66  96  67  95 /  10  30  20  20
Clovis..........................  66  93  66  91 /  10  20  10  20
Portales........................  67  95  67  92 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  94  67  93 /  20  30  20  20
Roswell.........................  68  96  70  94 /  20  30  10  20
Picacho.........................  62  89  63  86 /  20  50  10  40
Elk.............................  60  86  60  82 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ201-202-204>209-241.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NMZ201>241-251130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
314 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over
central and western NM once again today, producing heavy rainfall
and localized areas of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for much of central and western areas of the state this
afternoon through this evening. Some storms may also produce hail
and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and
evening through the next week. Localized areas of flash flooding are
likely, with the greatest risk over and near recent burn scars and
areas where soils are saturated. Some of the stronger storms will
likely produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 AM MDT SAT JUL 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLD HORSE SPRINGS       33.92N 108.23W
07/22/2021                   CATRON             NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BETWEEN 300PM AMD 730PM HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED FLASH
            FLOODING. A FEW BARNS... HOMES AND THE LOCAL FIRE
            DEPARTMENT WERE FLOODED. SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS WERE
            WASHED OUT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102469

JLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
153 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NMZ205-242030-
West Central Plateau-
153 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 153 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gallup, moving west at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Western Gallup, Manuelito, Red Rock State Park, Mentmore and Allison.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 1 and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 10876 3539 10875 3533 10904 3561 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 085DEG 9KT 3548 10885

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NMZ205-242045-
West Central Plateau-
230 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manuelito, or 16 miles west of Gallup, moving west at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
McKinley County.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 8 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 10904 3561 10904 3557 10891 3544 10895
      3543 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 100DEG 10KT 3550 10903

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NMZ201-242145-
Northwest Plateau-
313 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SAN JUAN COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

At 313 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Twin Falls, or 15 miles west of Shiprock, moving
west at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western San Juan
County.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 1 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 10886 3668 10889 3668 10904 3680 10905
      3690 10904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 098DEG 31KT 3678 10897

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NMZ205-242215-
West Central Plateau-
346 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND
NORTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 346 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Fence Lake, or 21 miles south of Zuni Pueblo,
moving southwest at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Cibola
and northwestern Catron Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 10905 3479 10904 3486 10876 3470 10867
      3452 10904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 065DEG 24KT 3476 10880

34