Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
259 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist
through the forecast period bringing heavy rainfall and the potential
for flash flooding. Some storms may become strong to severe late
today and tomorrow, with coverage favoring southwest and central New
Mexico today and expanding in coverage on Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to cool slightly after today's cold front, remaining near to
below normal in the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Northerly steering flow remains in place over NM as a 600dm H5 high
center focuses over southern NV. At the surface, a back door cold
front has pushed southwest to the central mt chain today w/ deeper
low level moisture in its wake. Storm initiation along the boundary
will help force moisture farther west tonight and Sunday. A period
of moderate gap winds is likely in the RGV w/ gusts up to 45 mph
early this evening. Storms are likely to continue over eastern NM
well into tonight as an upper level wave ejects southeast from the
Front Range w/ increasingly moist low level upslope flow. A period
of low cigs is also possible over the high plains by sunrise.

Sunday is likely to be a much more active day of storms w/ abundant
moisture and instability in place. PWATs are progged from near 1.2"
over the RGV to near 1.6" across the plains. Steering flow will be
from north to south around 10 kt w/ persistent low level east to
southeast flow and training of storms around the high terrain. The
threat for flash flooding will increase over areas w/ recent heavy
rain and burn scars. The heaviest precip is shown by near-term model
guidance to shift along and south of I-40 Sunday night w/ widespread
moderate rainfall possible.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The upper high continues its migration westward, finding anchor over
SoCal Monday. The high will then meander westward while elongating.
This will allow monsoon moisture to infiltrate the Desert Southwest,
bringing about daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms. Convection
will favor the western and northern high terrain before pushing off
in the late afternoon and evening each day in the coming week. Models
continue to point to well above average PWATs, though the latest run
of the GFS has pulled back some. Meanwhile, the NAEFS suggests PWATs
will remain 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal throughout
the week. This alongside slow storm motions will set the stage for
heavy rain and subsequent flash flooding.

As the high elongates on Wednesday, a shortwave trough descends into
northeastern NM. This feature will help to enhance lift, aiding in
convective initiation across northern and central NM. Potential for
some storms to become strong to severe may exist, though current
model runs suggest shear may be marginal at best. Still, other
ingredients look to prime the environment, creating a robust day for
storm coverage. This will be the setup to watch in the coming days
as higher resolution models come into play.

The upper high begins its migration back to the Four Corners by late
week, weakening in its trek. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms alongside near to below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the long term.

Guyer/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An increasingly moist airmass over the region will elevate the risk
for flash flooding over burn scars thru much of next week. The very
hot temperatures recently will trend cooler as well with readings
near to slightly below normal. Steering flow will remain slow toward
the south thru Monday before becoming more erratic next week.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A back door cold front moving southwest thru eastern NM early this
afternoon will focus TS initiation over the high terrain of northern
and central NM aft 20Z. Storms will drift southward into valleys and
highlands thru sunset w/ gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. East canyon winds enhanced by convective outflow
at KABQ may exceed 35 kt for a few hours around 00Z. Storm activity
will focus over eastern NM well into tonight w/ potential for some
low cigs along the east slopes of the central mt chain by sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68 100  66  98 /   0   5   0   5
Dulce...........................  55  91  52  92 /  10  30  10  30
Cuba............................  58  87  56  88 /  10  40  20  30
Gallup..........................  57  97  58  95 /  10   5   5  20
El Morro........................  56  90  54  88 /  20  20  10  30
Grants..........................  58  91  56  90 /  20  30  20  30
Quemado.........................  59  92  57  89 /  30  40  30  40
Magdalena.......................  63  88  59  85 /  30  60  50  30
Datil...........................  58  88  55  86 /  30  60  40  40
Reserve.........................  59  97  55  93 /  40  50  40  50
Glenwood........................  66  99  61  93 /  40  50  40  50
Chama...........................  51  81  49  83 /  20  50  20  50
Los Alamos......................  62  81  58  84 /  30  70  30  40
Pecos...........................  58  77  55  83 /  40  70  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  80  50  83 /  30  60  20  50
Red River.......................  47  69  46  74 /  40  60  20  50
Angel Fire......................  43  71  41  76 /  50  80  30  50
Taos............................  53  85  50  88 /  40  70  20  40
Mora............................  53  72  51  81 /  50  80  30  50
Espanola........................  62  88  59  91 /  30  60  30  40
Santa Fe........................  62  83  58  85 /  30  70  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  61  87  57  88 /  30  60  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  88  64  88 /  30  50  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  90  64  90 /  20  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  92  63  93 /  20  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  91  65  92 /  30  40  30  20
Belen...........................  68  92  64  92 /  20  50  30  20
Bernalillo......................  66  91  62  93 /  30  40  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  66  92  63  92 /  20  40  30  20
Corrales........................  67  93  63  94 /  30  40  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  66  92  62  92 /  20  40  30  20
Placitas........................  66  88  61  90 /  30  50  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  68  91  64  92 /  30  40  30  20
Socorro.........................  68  95  63  92 /  30  60  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  82  59  85 /  30  60  40  30
Tijeras.........................  64  85  60  88 /  30  60  40  30
Edgewood........................  60  83  57  88 /  20  60  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  83  55  88 /  30  60  40  30
Clines Corners..................  58  77  55  82 /  30  70  40  30
Mountainair.....................  61  82  57  84 /  30  60  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  61  82  57  83 /  30  70  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  88  60  86 /  20  70  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  78  53  81 /  20  80  50  20
Capulin.........................  55  78  54  86 /  20  50  10  20
Raton...........................  56  82  54  89 /  30  50  10  30
Springer........................  58  81  54  90 /  40  70  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  55  74  53  83 /  40  80  30  30
Clayton.........................  61  83  59  91 /  10  30  10  10
Roy.............................  61  77  58  86 /  30  60  20  20
Conchas.........................  65  84  63  91 /  30  50  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  82  61  88 /  30  60  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  85  64  93 /  30  40  20  10
Clovis..........................  67  82  64  89 /  40  50  20   5
Portales........................  68  83  64  89 /  40  50  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68  83  64  89 /  40  60  20  10
Roswell.........................  70  86  67  90 /  20  70  40   5
Picacho.........................  65  80  61  85 /  20  80  50  20
Elk.............................  62  77  57  81 /  10  80  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ203-205-217-219.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ201.

&&

42/12

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

NMZ208-102145-
Southwest Mountains-
317 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Red Hill, or 25 miles east of Springerville, moving southwest at 20
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Hill.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 0 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 10884 3418 10870 3397 10898 3414 10905
      3422 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 050DEG 17KT 3420 10884

CA