Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A marginal to slight risk of storms becoming severe exists across the
eastern plains for storms moving south from the Sangre de Cristo's
and Johnson/Bartlett mesas through the eastern plains late this
afternoon and evening. Tuesday will see the most active storm
coverage with a drying trend occurring Wednesday through Friday.
Storm motions look to remain mainly north to south regardless of the
storm chances each day. Unfortunately, the only spot to mostly miss
out with storm chances remains far northwestern NM near Farmington
each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Afternoon convection has already begun atop the high terrain this
afternoon. Abundant deep layer monsoon moisture remains, although it
has trended down a bit evidenced by this morning's ABQ sounding
sampling 1.01" PWAT. Dewpoints range from the high side on the upper
50s to 60s across the eastern plains the Rio Grande Valley, with 40s
along and west of the divide. Water vapor imagery shows the H5 upper
high now centered over southern UT and the Four Corners area, with a
perturbation sliding south over the high plains along the eastern
periphery of the upper high. This has created stronger N/NNW flow and
shear off the front range of the Rockies into eastern NM, overriding
continued southerly return flow at the surface. This combined with an
increasing instability over the plains has prompted a marginal to
slight risk of storms moving SE off the slopes of the central
mountain chain and Johnson/Bartlett mesas to become severe late this
afternoon and evening. Storm motions will favor a mostly north to
south direction. Severe winds and hail will the be the main severe
weather hazards associated with any storm. Meanwhile, an isolated
flash flood risk remains over the south-central and southwestern
areas where abundant moisture is closest to the center of the upper
high. Storm motions here will remain slow and erratic, but a lack of
shear should produce pulse convection keeping downpours short-
lived. Given this lesser threat, have elected to keep a blank Flash
Flood Watch map with this forecast package.

The overnight will see the severe storm risk gradually taper off near
the midnight hour over east-central and southeastern portions of the
forecast area. Low clouds and patchy fog look to return to parts of
the eastern plains again. Monday sees the upper high slide more over
the forecast area with lesser moisture to work with for storms.
However, it will not be enough of a downtick and scattered storms are
again in the cards to slowly drift off the high terrain during the
afternoon.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The long term period will begin with what looks to be the most active
convective day of the forecast period Tuesday. With the upper high
sliding back west over the Great Basin, northerly flow aloft
overriding surface easterly upslope flow through eastern NM will
steer high terrain storms along and east of the central mountain
chain southward spilling into surrounding lower elevations. Models
continue to depict dry air becoming entrained around the northern
side of the high wrapping around into northern NM beginning
Wednesday. This will bring a downtick in storm coverage mid-week,
especially as the upper high nudges back eastward over NM a bit.
Thankfully this looks to be short-lived with both the GFS and ECMWF
showing the high wobbling back west with northerly flow aloft and
easterly upslope flow setting back up again over eastern NM Saturday.

24/44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Continued
rounds of afternoon storms forming over the high terrain, generally
moving slowly or to the south every day. However, a few storms could
become severe producing severe winds and hail over eastern plains
late this afternoon and evening. Upper high will wobble west and east
from Four Corners to the Great Basin this week, with driest and
warmest days Wednesday through Friday. Return of more active storm
coverage by next weekend. Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to
good, with excellent recoveries remaining for many areas except the
far northwest plateau.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Afternoon convection to begin early this afternoon again over the
high terrain. Steering flow taking storms NNW-SSE will be strongest
over northern NM, with slower and more erratic storm motions over the
south-central and southwestern mountains. Enhanced vertical wind
shear and abundant moisture will push storms further out over the
eastern plains this afternoon and evening where a few could become
severe producing severe hail and winds during the 21Z-06Z timeframe.
Storms here look to begin near KRTN-KLVS pushing SSE out toward
KCAO then to KTCC-KCVN and perhaps as far as KROW late this evening.
East canyon winds look likely again at KSAF and KABQ from convection
east of the Sandia/Manzanos. Drier for KGUP-KFMN, but a stray strong
wind gust is still in the cards. Conditions clear past midnight with
more patchy low clouds and br over the eastern plains Monday morning.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  95  66  97 /   5  10  10   5
Dulce...........................  55  88  53  90 /  10  50  30  40
Cuba............................  59  87  58  87 /  20  40  40  40
Gallup..........................  60  88  59  92 /  20  20  20  10
El Morro........................  57  84  56  86 /  30  30  30  30
Grants..........................  60  88  58  89 /  30  40  40  30
Quemado.........................  59  85  59  86 /  40  50  30  40
Magdalena.......................  63  85  62  85 /  30  50  40  60
Datil...........................  59  83  58  82 /  40  50  40  60
Reserve.........................  58  88  58  92 /  40  60  30  50
Glenwood........................  64  90  65  94 /  30  60  30  50
Chama...........................  51  79  50  82 /  20  60  40  70
Los Alamos......................  63  85  60  81 /  30  60  50  70
Pecos...........................  58  81  58  81 /  30  60  50  80
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  51  80 /  20  60  40  90
Red River.......................  47  71  47  73 /  20  70  40  90
Angel Fire......................  44  74  45  71 /  30  60  40  90
Taos............................  54  86  53  83 /  20  60  40  80
Mora............................  54  78  54  76 /  30  60  50  80
Espanola........................  62  92  62  89 /  30  50  40  70
Santa Fe........................  62  84  61  82 /  30  50  50  80
Santa Fe Airport................  62  88  60  86 /  30  50  40  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  90  67  89 /  30  40  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  93  67  91 /  20  30  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  66  93 /  20  30  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  94  68  92 /  20  30  40  50
Belen...........................  69  96  67  92 /  20  30  40  50
Bernalillo......................  67  94  65  93 /  20  30  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  66  95  66  92 /  20  30  40  50
Corrales........................  67  94  66  93 /  20  30  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  67  95  66  92 /  20  30  40  50
Placitas........................  67  91  65  87 /  30  40  50  60
Rio Rancho......................  68  94  67  92 /  20  30  40  50
Socorro.........................  68  94  67  92 /  20  40  40  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  85  61  80 /  30  50  50  70
Tijeras.........................  63  88  63  84 /  30  40  50  60
Edgewood........................  60  86  59  84 /  30  50  50  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  88  57  84 /  30  40  50  70
Clines Corners..................  58  82  57  77 /  40  50  50  70
Mountainair.....................  60  86  59  81 /  40  50  50  70
Gran Quivira....................  60  86  59  80 /  40  50  50  70
Carrizozo.......................  65  88  63  85 /  30  50  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  58  78  57  76 /  40  60  50  70
Capulin.........................  56  82  56  77 /  40  40  30  80
Raton...........................  55  86  57  81 /  30  40  30  90
Springer........................  56  88  58  81 /  30  50  40  80
Las Vegas.......................  55  82  56  76 /  30  50  50  80
Clayton.........................  62  86  63  83 /  50  20  30  60
Roy.............................  60  84  61  79 /  30  40  40  80
Conchas.........................  64  90  66  85 /  50  40  40  70
Santa Rosa......................  63  89  64  83 /  50  40  50  70
Tucumcari.......................  65  91  68  86 /  50  20  40  50
Clovis..........................  65  86  66  84 /  60  30  40  40
Portales........................  66  87  66  84 /  60  20  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  66  89  67  85 /  50  30  50  50
Roswell.........................  70  90  70  87 /  40  30  50  50
Picacho.........................  64  85  64  81 /  30  50  50  70
Elk.............................  61  81  60  81 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ201>241-051100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
323 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the eastern
plains of New Mexico from mid-afternoon through late evening. Main
threats will be large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Heavy
rainfall capable of localized flash flooding will also be a concern
across the entire region, especially with slow-moving storms and/or
near and downstream from wildfire burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The active monsoon pattern will continue to support elevated storm
coverage and the threat for heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding
for Monday and Tuesday. In fact, there may be an elevated threat for
flash flood potential along and east of the central mountain chain on
Tuesday, especially near and downstream from wildfire burn scars and
across parts of eastern Lincoln and western Chaves counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, rainfall amounts
and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web
site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

DPorter

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