Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat continues with 90s to low 100s for many areas through the
upcoming work week. Monday and Tuesday look the be the hottest days
of the forecast period, with near record to record temperatures.
Meanwhile, afternoon storms look to be isolated over the high terrain
Monday, with more scattered activity Tuesday and beyond. Storm
motions will start off drifting to south or southwest each afternoon
through Thursday, becoming more south to southeast by next weekend.
With numerous ongoing fires occurring, smoke will likely remain a
concern bringing hazy skies to the region through at least the middle
of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
The dome of high pressure aloft continues to sprawl across New
Mexico and surrounding states this afternoon, and this feature will
continue to orbit close by in the coming days. Temperatures are
already hot again, and several daily record highs will likely be
broken before evening. After trying to advance toward the Continental
Divide this morning, the low layer moisture is now beginning to mix
back east. Dewpoints never really crept up all that high with 30’s
to low 40’s readings between the divide and the Rio Grande. Even
the far eastern plains have undergone a considerable reduction in
surface dewpoints, but areas along and east of a Raton to Clovis line
could observe a slight backing of the surface winds, sufficient
southeasterly component to keep upper 40’s to low 50’s in place
through the early evening. Cumulus have been building over the
southwestern to west central peaks and secondarily over the central
mountain chain with a few storms expected to slowly initiate through
the late afternoon, eventually rolling southeastward into the plains.
Any concerns for severe weather would primarily be focused on gusty
downburst threats, and storm potential should dwindle toward midnight
with cells exiting northern and central NM. A clearing trend would
then be in place toward dawn Monday.

Another hot day is expected on Monday as the upper high nudges
slightly toward the Four Corners with 500 mb heights rising a couple
more decameters. This will add more subsidence to the already very
dry northwestern NM, reaching into central areas of the state as
well. This will raise heat safety concerns, and a few heat
advisories will be issued to bring awareness. Hope for thunderstorms
will be largely dependent on the east southeast upslope flow along
the east faces of the central mountain chain (mainly the Sangre de
Cristos) where higher dewpoints in the 40’s could be sufficient for
isolated cells. Higher-based cells may develop in the southwestern
mountains too, but these would produce minimal rainfall at the
surface due to such arid sub-cloud conditions.

52

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Upper high pressure over the Four Corners remains dominant Tuesday,
staying near peak strength of 598-600dm. The saving grace will be
low-level moisture progressing further into the Rio Grande Valley
toward the continental divide. This will help pause the warming and
even bring daytime highs back a few degrees through the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday afternoon. The northwest plateau and Farmington will
be hold-out for this moisture, allowing highs there to reach into the
low 100s. It will also allow for the week’s first notable chance
for afternoon storms over the western and northern mountains. Late
afternoon and early evening convection will be driven by outflow
collisions over nearby valleys. These outflows will act to push low-
level moisture further into northwestern NM, helping bring minor
relief for the heat there Wednesday. The upper high begins to weaken
with recycled moisture beneath it producing daily rounds of scattered
afternoon storms over the western and northern mountains. Steering
flow will generally take storms S/SW, keeping the eastern plains out
of any storm chances each day. The strength of the upper high
continues to trend down through the end of the week with more 90s
than 100s by Friday for highs. With the centroid of the high drifting
further west over AZ, steering flow looks to start taking afternoon
storms off the northern mountains out over the northeastern plains
next weekend.

52/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Prevailing winds are expected to stay below critical thresholds for
the next several days, as the stout dome of high pressure reigns
over or near NM. This will point any fire weather concerns toward
the heat, unstable conditions (high Haines indices in western NM),
and the threat for lightning ignitions. The already fairly low
thunderstorm prospects will not undergo any appreciable rises as
moisture remains limited in the boundary layer, but storm coverage
and placement will be inching westward into the middle part of the
week. This could place storms over some very dry areas that would be
susceptible to new ignitions. Unfortunately, the hope for another
moisture intrusion via a backdoor cold front appears to be delayed
until after next weekend.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Mostly clear skies will give way to bubbling cumulus and a few
showers and thunderstorms over the central mountain chain and perhaps
the southwestern mountains this afternoon. A few storms could produce
gusty to damaging downburst winds, but any downpours should be brief.
A few high-based cumulus may also produce evaporating rainfall
(virga) and consequently localized gusty winds along and near the Rio
Grande this afternoon, but otherwise the prevailing winds should be
light to moderate (in the 10 to 25 kt range). A few thunderstorms
will eventually roll into the eastern plains this evening before
coming to an end before midnight.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57 101  60 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  96  48  97 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  54  97  58  94 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  48  99  51  99 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  48  95  52  94 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  47  98  53  97 /   5   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  49  96  53  95 /  10   5   0  10
Magdalena.......................  62  96  63  92 /  20   0   0   0
Datil...........................  53  95  56  92 /  20   5   0  10
Reserve.........................  51 101  52  99 /  10  10  10  10
Glenwood........................  62 104  60 100 /  10  10  20   5
Chama...........................  45  89  46  90 /   0   5   0  10
Los Alamos......................  64  94  65  92 /  10  10   5  10
Pecos...........................  60  92  60  90 /  20  20  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  51  90  52  92 /   0  20  10  20
Red River.......................  43  80  43  83 /   5  20  20  30
Angel Fire......................  35  83  35  81 /  10  30  20  20
Taos............................  49  95  50  93 /   0  10   5  10
Mora............................  52  86  53  86 /  10  20  20  20
Espanola........................  60 101  62  96 /   5   5   5  10
Santa Fe........................  63  95  63  92 /  10  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  58  99  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  98  70  96 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  70 101  72  98 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63 103  65 101 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67 101  69  99 /  10   0   5   0
Belen...........................  65 103  66 100 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65 104  68 100 /  10   5   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  62 102  63 100 /  10   5  10   0
Corrales........................  66 104  68 100 /  10   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  62 102  63 100 /  10   0   5   0
Placitas........................  65 101  68  96 /  10   5  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  67 103  69  99 /  10   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  66 103  66 100 /  20   0  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  97  64  91 /  10  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  63  99  64  94 /  10  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  59  98  59  95 /  10  10  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  98  54  95 /  20  10  20   5
Clines Corners..................  57  92  58  89 /  20  10  20   5
Mountainair.....................  60  95  60  92 /  20  10  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  95  61  91 /  30  10  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  96  62  94 /  20  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  59  89  54  85 /  20  20  10   5
Capulin.........................  54  87  55  89 /  30  20  10  10
Raton...........................  52  91  52  93 /  20  20  10  10
Springer........................  52  93  53  91 /  20  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  89  54  88 /  20  20  20  10
Clayton.........................  61  92  62  94 /  20  10  10   0
Roy.............................  57  91  59  91 /  30  10  20   5
Conchas.........................  63  98  64  94 /  20   5  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  97  64  95 /  20   5  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  99  67  99 /  20   5  10   0
Clovis..........................  65  95  64  95 /  20  10   5   0
Portales........................  67  96  66  96 /  20  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68 100  68  99 /  20   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  71 101  70 100 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  64  95  62  93 /  30  10  10   5
Elk.............................  61  92  58  89 /  20  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ201-206-208-217-219-221.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ201-205.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

NMZ201>241-141200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
417 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over northeast and
east central New Mexico this afternoon and evening where large hail
and damaging wind gusts are possible. Near record to record high
temperatures are expected over central and western New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Near record to record heat is expected again Monday and Tuesday
over central and western New Mexico.

Weather can change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts,
watches and warnings for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>