Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Stream of mid to high level clouds over NM at 23Z will gradually
clear from west to east during the next 24 hrs. Dryline stretched
from east of KROW through KCVN and ne into TX where isold strong to
svr tstms with large hail and wind gusts to 50 kts are possible
through 03Z. Dryline to push wwd thereafter to approximately a KROW-
KTCC line by 27/10Z with potential for MVFR cigs along and east of
the line but with conditions improving by 27/16Z. Tstms to develop
along the ern NM/TX border aft 27/20Z then become more nmrs along a
sfc boundary sagging into ne NM aft 27/23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
An increasingly active weather pattern is in store through the
holiday weekend as a storm system approaches slowly from the west.
Moisture sloshing around along the Texas and New Mexico border will
shift farther west each day and help set the stage for increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms across all of eastern NM Friday and potentially
again Saturday. The most active period is expected Sunday and Monday
with widespread showers and storms from the central mountain chain
eastward across the plains. Western NM will unfortunately remain dry
and warm through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
As seen on satellite imagery, mid to high level clouds continue to
stream in across western and central New Mexico thanks to a Pacific
trough. Southwest flow has strengthened today, but winds have
largely been suppressed so far across much of the forecast area
(with the exception of the northeast) due to the cloud cover.

Meanwhile, the dryline is extending from southeast New Mexico into
the Texas panhandle. Even with MLCAPE approaching 1000+ J/kg, LI's
in the -3 to -4 C range, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km
bulk shear approaching 30 kts, weak forcing and a moderate cap has
kept any convection at bay this afternoon. Short term models have
been struggling with the timing and placement of any convection
through the evening, with the HRRR and HREF both showing the
possibility for some discrete to semi-discrete cells sometime
between 23-06z across far eastern Curry and Roosevelt counties.

Models show some clearing in mid to high clouds across western New
Mexico overnight, so lowered minT's in this area. Further clearing
is expecting on Thursday across the state. By late Thursday
afternoon, an upper-level trough will interact with a backdoor cold
front across northeast NM to produce showers and thunderstorms and
possibly further west along the NM/CO border.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Friday will begin an extended stretch of very active weather as we
head into the Memorial Day holiday weekend. A convectively-aided back
door cold front is expected to shift southwest across eastern NM
Thursday night and allow moisture to deepen westward to the central
mt chain Friday. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough with a 50-60 kt
speed max will eject eastward thru central NM and assist with ascent
and veering wind profiles with bulk shear values near 40 kt over
eastern NM. There will be abundant moisture and instability available
over the region however there are big differences btwn the NAM and
GFS bufr profiles with regard to capping. The 12Z NAM has a stronger
stable layer across the east in the wake of a convective cluster from
Thursday night with only isold storms into Friday night. The GFS and
ECMWF show convective initiation on the Sangre de Cristo Mts Friday
afternoon shifting southeast thru the plains Friday night. SPC still
shows a large marginal risk over eastern NM and the latest NBM PoPs
certainly reflect the more favorable wetter solution.

The pattern is progged to become significantly more active Saturday
as an upper level wave approaches from the west and develops into a
weak closed circulation over southern AZ thru Sunday. This pattern
will assist larger-scale ascent across central and eastern NM with
daily rounds of convection forcing moist outflows westward with each
passing day. PoPs continue trending upward Saturday thru Monday with
much needed moderate to locally heavy precip along and east of the
central mt chain. The threat for strong to severe storms continues
as well with abundant moisture, instability, and lift over the area.
The overall synoptic pattern evolves into a northwest or northerly
flow regime Tuesday and Wednesday with at least scattered storms,
however model agreement deteriorates after Memorial Day.

31/Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Locally critical fire weather conditions will continue through the
early evening hours across portions of northeast New Mexico, before
southwest winds subside. Dry conditions continue tomorrow, although
with not as many hours of single digit relative humidity as today
(between 4-14 hours). Showers and thunderstorms will focus across
northeast New Mexico tomorrow, along and behind a backdoor cold
front. The dryline will still be sloshing moisture back and forth
across the NM/TX border each day with better chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Friday through early next week with
excellent overnight humidity recoveries. The dryline may make it as
far west as the central mountain chain at least by Tuesday. It looks
to remain active with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through at least mid-week next week as a Pacific storm system
arrives from the west.

31

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021

NMZ201>241-271100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
305 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening near the Texas state line. This includes Curry,
Roosevelt and eastern Quay Counties. Large hail, damaging winds,
cloud to ground lightning strikes and an isolated tornado are all
possible with the strongest storms.

Breezy to windy conditions will be felt this afternoon and evening in
the northeast, where southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 45
mph are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Weak disturbances and their back door cold fronts, aided by outflows
from thunderstorms, will bring increasing chances for widespread
showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week. Friday,
and Sunday through the middle of next week look to be days with the
greatest chances of severe weather. Large hail and and damaging winds
will be the greatest threat, but we cannot rule out an isolated
tornado as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE ROSWELL           33.32N 104.50W
05/26/2021  M59 MPH          CHAVES             NM   ASOS

            KROW ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102297

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ROSWELL             33.39N 104.53W
05/26/2021  M75 MPH          CHAVES             NM   AMATEUR RADIO

            2ND AND UNION SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH MEASURED WITH
            HAND HELD ANEMOMETER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102298

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ROSWELL             33.39N 104.53W
05/26/2021  M65 MPH          CHAVES             NM   AMATEUR RADIO

            2ND AND UNION SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH MEASURED WITH
            HAND HELD ANEMOMETER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102298

DAK

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