Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms may impact the KTCC terminal through 03Z with MVFR
conditions and strong/erratic wind gusts. Areas of MVFR cigs will
likely develop overnight across the east central and southeast
plains, impacting KROW and KTCC. Thunderstorms have a better chance
of impacting KROW Monday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
and are forecast to persist.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through the
evening hours, with activity favoring the eastern plains. Some storms
could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats. Another round of strong to severe storms is
possible across portions of eastern New Mexico again Monday
afternoon. Drier conditions are expected to prevail during the
midweek with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms may return to eastern New Mexico late in
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
After one upper level low pressure system exits the Great Basin to
the northeast tonight, another storm system will move on shore over
the Pacific northwest on Monday. This will help keep the dryline
active over eastern NM with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the eastern plains this evening and again Monday
afternoon and evening. Mesoscale models are showing near and over an
inch of rain in the Clovis and Portales area Monday afternoon and
evening, which could result in drainage problems in those flash-
flood-prone communities if it pans out. Although the flow aloft will
weaken Monday, breezy conditions will return to the eastern plains
as a roughly 1004 mb surface low develops over southeast CO. High
temperatures are generally forecast to rise a few to 7 degrees on
Monday compared to today's readings.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Dry southwest air will dominate on Tuesday, causing moisture brought
in by the retreating dryline to mix out early in the day. This will
work to great diminish the chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Instead, breezy and warm conditions will prevail.
Winds increase across the east on Wednesday, as the upper level
pressure gradient tightens in response to disturbances well to our
north. Weak ridging develops over the Land of Enchantment on Thursday
in the presence of modest return flow, which could bring some
isolated showers and thunderstorms to the southeast portion of the
CWA that afternoon. Models continue to have a poor hold on a
potential backdoor front later in the week, now shifting its timing
closer to Friday. Should the front resolve, a return to showers and
thunderstorms would be expected across portions of eastern NM both
Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a general warming trend is expected
through the weekend. The 12Z GFS MOS hinted to the debut of triple
digit temperatures across the southeastern-most locales of the CWA,
but remain cautiously optimistic that some relief to the warming will
be felt by the front. Stay tuned.

44/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although the flow aloft will weaken some on Monday, breezy
conditions are forecast to return to the eastern plains as a roughly
1004 mb surface low develops over southeast CO. It will be quite dry
west of a convectively active dryline on the eastern plains, so
critical fire weather conditions are expected along the Northeast
Highlands and Northeast Plains border Monday afternoon. Fortunately,
the observed fire danger is low to moderate there.

High temperatures will rise above normal during the first half of
the work week.  After weaker winds Tuesday, speeds will strengthen
again Wednesday central and east as a storm system crosses the
northern Rockies. The low level moisture will be scoured eastward by
then, so widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected
along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will weaken while remaining seasonably gusty during the latter
half of the work week. A weak upper level trough crossing from the
west could spark some thunderstorms with small wetting footprints
over the Sangre de Cristos and eastern plains on Friday.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Drier air has advanced eastward over the central mountain chain this
morning. The main thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening will
be on the eastern plains, where some storms may turn severe with
large hail and damaging winds; especially near NM's eastern border.
Tonight, southeast surface winds may again return low clouds to the
Caprock southward, potentially as far west as Roswell and as far
north as Tucumcari.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ215-227>231.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ102-107.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
354 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NMZ201>241-241100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
354 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico
this afternoon and evening. Large hail, heavy rain and damaging wind
gusts are the main concerns.

Additionally, strong south to southwest winds can be expected across
portions of northeast New Mexico, including from the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward to the I-25 corridor. Gusts
between 50 and 55 mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again on Monday across
portions of east central and southeast New Mexico. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts remain the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall reports and any severe
weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
720 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NMZ230-234-240145-
Union County-Quay County-
720 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN QUAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 720 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amistad, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amistad and Sedan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3562 10307 3570 10327 3624 10310 3622 10304
      3563 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 205DEG 41KT 3586 10308

Shoemake

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