Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have alrealdy developed across
the Southwest and South Central Mountains, with isolated development
to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storms will continue to
shift to the east or northeast through the day. Strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible, particularly later this afternoon across
eastern NM. These winds may result in areas of BLDU and a few storms
may contain hail as well. KROW and KTCC may be impacted. Storms will
decrease or move out of the area by 06Z, though another round of
stronger convection is possible Saturday across eastern NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the southwest and
south-central mountains this afternoon. A few storms are also
possible for far northeast and east-central portions of the state.
Drier air moves in for the weekend with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and breezy to locally windy conditions, especially Sunday. A
slow moving storm system remain on track to bring an increase in
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly east early next week.
High temperatures will remain near seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A low amplitude ridge will translate east across the region through
Saturday, with continued warming today. Southerly flow in the lower
boundary layer is bringing improved moisture with surface dewpoints
on the uptrend. With higher dewpoints and increasing temperatures
comes greater instability and improved coverage of afternoon/evening
showers and storms. That said, PWATs are unimpressive and generally
range from 0.25-0.60" across the area. A mix of wet/dry storms are
likely, trending drier along/west of the RGV. The SPC day1
convective outlook shows portions of eastern NM in a marginal risk
for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat
given dCAPE values approaching 2000J/kg. Similar setup Saturday, but
a backdoor front will push into the northeast plains/highlands and
bring improved moisture and a more favorable shear environment for
late day severe storms. The latest NAM is advertising sbCAPE in
excess of 2000J/kg, LIs of -7 and 0-6km bulk shear of 35kts across
portions of Union and Colfax Counties late Saturday, which should be
more than sufficient for a severe storm or two.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Dry air pushes in Saturday night on southwest flow aloft ahead of
closed low moving over central CA. Despite the southwest flow aloft,
rain cooled air from eastern CO and the southern plains results in
low- level easterlies for northeast NM Sunday. Afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms are forecast for far northeast NM Sunday.
Elsewhere, southwest winds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon
thanks to the low to the west. 00Z model suite has trended back drier
for western and central areas for Monday and Tuesday. Single digit
relative humidity at 500 mb wraps around the low early Monday. This
drier air aloft, however, could make for severe storms in northeast
NM Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday remains on track for the
wettest day of the next 7 for the northeast third as the upper low
moves overhead and helps draw in low-level moisture from the east.
The low shifts east of NM Wednesday and the GFS and ECMWF agree that
a ridge of high pressure translates in from the west on Wednesday.
Slight chances for afternoon and evening convection remain across
far northeast NM Wednesday with dry southwest flow expected
Thursday.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Potential for ignitions are on the uptrend through Saturday given an
expected increase in lightning activity and a mix of wet/dry storms.
A Pacific low will approach Sunday and spread stronger winds and a
drier airmass over central and western New Mexico. The potential for
critical fire weather conditions will be on the uptrend Sunday, but
forecast wind speeds are currently below critical threshold. The
combination of the Pacific low and a backdoor front will bring
cooler conditions on Tuesday with good chances for wetting rain
favoring the northeast quarter of the state. Medium range model
solutions depart from mid to late next week with the handling of a
closed low over the Great Basin. The 00Z ECMWF and Canadian are
favored at this time and would bring stronger winds around the base
of the upper low across our region, introducing the potential for
critical fire weather conditions to central and western New Mexico
Thu/Fri.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
755 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ201>241-151200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
755 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong or severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts
and small hail will be the main concerns with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A better chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will return on
Saturday across northeast and far eastern New Mexico. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be likely, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

Severe weather chances persist across northeast New Mexico on Sunday
and may return Monday and Tuesday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ207-208-220-241-142000-
West Central Highlands-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-Lower
Rio Grande Valley-Southwest Mountains-
137 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 136 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Magdalena, or 25 miles northwest of Socorro, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Magdalena.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 115 and 116.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 10734 3422 10759 3457 10725 3435 10689
      3426 10694 3416 10698 3413 10718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 233DEG 19KT 3429 10725

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
206 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ233-237>239-142030-
Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-Guadalupe County-De Baca
County-
206 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA...NORTHWESTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Ramon, or 38 miles southeast of Vaughn, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ramon.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 155 and 184.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 10480 3402 10504 3451 10495 3436 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 217DEG 19KT 3409 10492

15