Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Albuquerque, NM

278 
WWUS55 KABQ 230314
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
914 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMC021-037-047-230324-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-210523T0345Z/
San Miguel-Harding-Quay-
914 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDING AND NORTHEASTERN QUAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these showers.

LAT...LON 3495 10316 3496 10324 3532 10387 3580 10372
      3549 10304 3522 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 187DEG 26KT 3547 10371 3519 10322 

$$

34

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong winds, blowing dust and severe thunderstorms will impact the
area through the evening hours. Short-lived MVFR conditions are
possible in areas of blowing dust and with thunderstorms across
eastern NM. KTCC and KROW will be impacted by storms between 00-04Z,
when both strong winds and hail may impact the terminals. Low stratus
will redevelop overnight and will likely impact KLVS, KTCC and KROW
going into Sunday morning. Expect some improvement Sunday, with less
wind, no dust and storms staying closer to the TX border.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will continue today into
the evening. Some storms may become strong to severe. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected Sunday across the central mountains and their
adjacent highlands. Storm chances return Sunday afternoon, with the
best coverage favoring east central New Mexico though more isolated
than Saturday's storms. Another round of storms is possible again on
Monday with coverage favoring the southeastern portion of the
forecast area. Conditions dry out moving into midweek with
temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A broad upper level low pressure system will slowly exit to the
north northeast across the northern Rockies tonight through Sunday
night. A jet streak crossing western and northern NM will continue
to interact with moist southeasterly low level flow across the
eastern plains to produce strong to severe thunderstorms along and
east of the central mountain chain through mid evening. Hodographs
indicate sufficient helicity for some tornadoes to be possible.

Drier air will move into central parts of NM tonight shifting the
focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across the far eastern
plains on Sunday afternoon. A Pacific cold front will also push into
the state producing temperatures a few to 12 degrees colder across
central and western areas on Sunday. Wind and fire weather concerns
will redevelop over central areas Sunday as the tail end of the jet
streak aloft lingers over that area. Southwest wind gusts to 50 mph
will be possible across the northeast highlands and plains on Sunday
afternoon, but humidities will be higher there.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Omega block continues the dictate the weather pattern in the long
term as upper level low pressure over the Great Basin is forced
northward into Monday. Dry air intrusion pushes northeastward into
the state, drying out the central mountains and westward while the
dryline remains in place over eastern NM. Another round of
potentially severe weather is in store Monday afternoon, as the
longwave trough continues to offer enhanced lift across eastern NM.
This will combine with MLCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg, steep
lapse rates, and abundant moisture in the afternoon. Do expect
coverage to be somewhat isolated, favoring the southeastern portion
of the CWA. Shear will a limiting factor, dampening some storms'
organization, and forcing overall will be less favorable than it was
over the weekend. Still, damaging winds and hail will be possible.
Dry southwest flow aloft continues to dominate on Tuesday, limiting
the westward retreat of the dryline and subsequent storm development.
Breezy to windy conditions return to eastern NM by midweek as
another upper level disturbance passes across the northern CONUS, the
pressure gradient tightening in response. A gusty backdoor front
kicks off down the eastern plains Wednesday night into the Thursday,
though models are in disagreement as to its timing and intensity.
Upper level ridging looks to take hold Friday and the potential for
showers and thunderstorms return going into the weekend.

44/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN OVER CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

After a fairly wet night along and east of the central mountain
chain tonight, very dry air will advance eastward over central areas
on Sunday. Strong winds will also return Sunday to central and
northeast areas. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in
the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains Sunday.  The potential
also exists for critical fire weather conditions in the San Louis
Valley of northern NM Sunday afternoon until sunset, where
historical RFTI's are expected. Haines will generally vary from 5 to
6 on Sunday, except along NM's eastern border where it will be
moister with scattered to isolated dryline showers and thunderstorms
expected.

The dryline will remain active with showers and thunderstorms across
eastern areas again on Monday, but winds will weaken in general.
Drier air will spread to eastern areas Tuesday.  Southwest winds
will become breezy to windy on Wednesday, and critical fire weather
conditions may redevelop, as an upper level low pressure system
crosses the northern Rockies.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected today and tonight along and east of the central mountain
chain, with scattered to isolated convection also expected over the
northeast quarter of the state. Some thunderstorms may turn severe
along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and
evening with large hail, damaging wind, and the potential for a few
tornadoes. Strong south winds will also develop this afternoon,
especially along and west of the central mountain chain where gusts
will approach 45 kt in many locations. Thunderstorm outflows are
expected to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with east
and southeast wind gusts up to 45kt at KSAF and KABQ through the
evening. Tonight, as the thunderstorms gradually exit east of NM,
they will leave low clouds in their wake east of the central mountain
chain with MVFR and IFR conditions that should linger in many
locations until mid morning Sunday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105-106-109.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201>208-210-211-216-217-220-221-241.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ102.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ107.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones...
NMZ219.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones...
NMZ218.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 AM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMZ201>241-231200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
323 AM MDT Sat May 22 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tonight across the upper Rio Grande Valley and areas along and east
of the Central Mountain Chain. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
heavy rain are likely, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out. Burn
scar flooding, particularly on the Ute Park burn scar, is also
possible.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of western
New Mexico and the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early
evening. Southerly winds will gust near 50 mph while humidity values
plummet below 15 percent. Areas of blowing dust are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across far eastern
New Mexico on Sunday and across portions of east central and
southeast New Mexico on Monday. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rain are the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any severe
weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMZ226-239-230030-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
600 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM MDT...

At 600 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Encinoso, or 20 miles east of Carrizozo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Encinoso.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for central New
Mexico.

LAT...LON 3366 10569 3403 10558 3404 10555 3405 10555
      3407 10556 3411 10555 3411 10553 3413 10550
      3398 10510 3358 10548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 203DEG 26KT 3370 10554

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
630 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMZ227-230100-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
630 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 630 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raton Pass, or 7 miles north of Raton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Sugarite Canyon State Park and Raton Pass.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 455 and 460.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for northeastern
New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3692 10440 3692 10445 3691 10444 3690 10445
      3692 10463 3700 10460 3699 10435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 210DEG 34KT 3699 10448

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
700 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMZ233-237-230130-
Guadalupe County-De Baca County-
700 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DE BACA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 700 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Yeso, or 28 miles southeast of Vaughn, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yeso.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 288 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for east central
New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3431 10473 3437 10494 3472 10488 3461 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 216DEG 16KT 3442 10476

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
806 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

NMZ232>234-230230-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-
806 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL...WEST
CENTRAL QUAY AND EASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 806 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Montoya, or 19 miles west of Tucumcari, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quay, Tucumcari, Newkirk and Montoya.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 299 and 338.
 State Road 104 between Mile Markers 95 and 105.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 10416 3508 10430 3534 10373 3496 10350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 240DEG 49KT 3507 10404

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
837 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE ARCHULETA         36.81N 107.65W
05/22/2021  M67 MPH          SAN JUAN           NM   NM AIR QUALITY

            ELEVATION 6398. DRY MICROBURST

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102282

JLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
841 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N RED HILL            34.24N 108.87W
05/22/2021  M60 MPH          CATRON             NM   APRSWXNET/CWOP

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102283

JLS