Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A few high-based cumulus clouds are producing evaporating light
rain/virga in western and central areas of the state, but all
thunderstorm activity has pushed in to the eastern plains of New
Mexico. Brief downpours, gusty downburst winds, small hail, and of
course lightning will be the main aviation weather hazards in the
eastern plains through mid evening. A slow clearing trend will then
be underway into the early morning Monday, but some smoke from
wildfires in New Mexico and Arizona will potentially expand overnight
with MVFR visibilities possible, especially in southwestern to
central parts of New Mexico. Less thunderstorm activity is expected
Monday with only the very far eastern tier of New Mexico near the
Texas border retaining sufficient moisture for storms.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...234 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Enjoy today and Monday's isolated to scattered storms moving
southeast off the northern mountains while you can, one or two storms
become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Near surface
smoke will also linger through parts of west-central NM, potentially
reaching into the Rio Grande Valley Monday morning from ABQ to
Socorro. Otherwise, the forecast turns much drier and hotter for the
upcoming work week. High temperatures soar into the 90s through the
Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for Tucumcari and
Roswell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the northern
mountains and portions of northeast NM this afternoon. These storms
will continue to shift toward the south-southeast through the
evening. The main concern with these storms, similarly to last night,
is gusty and erratic winds. This is especially true as they get
closer to the Texas border where DCAPE values should approach 2000
J/kg. A few severe wind gusts are not out of the question late this
afternoon and evening. Hail will be a secondary threat, though if
hail occurs, it will mostly be small. Storms should diminish and/or
move into Texas by midnight.

Elsewhere, virga may create some gusty and erratic winds as well.
However, the primary concern will be smoke that is expected to move
in from fires in AZ this evening. Morning satellite imagery showed
substantial smoke within the San Francisco River Valley and it's
possible that may happen again overnight into Monday morning, In
fact, HRRR smoke progs suggest that smoke may reach as far as the
Rio Grande Valley from ABQ southward. Thus, expect some haze Monday
morning.

Dry air will continue to filter into the state on Monday. This will
limit convection even further, and any storms that do form should
favor northeast NM. Gusty and erratic wind gusts will again be the
main concern with these storms. This activity should shift into
OK/TX by 7-8pm. Quiet night in store for Monday night, though low
temperatures will be a bit cooler across western NM thanks to the
drier air. Also, depending on how active the fires are in AZ, smoke
may return to portions of western NM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
There are no big changes to the long term forecast with this package.
Northern and central NM will be located beneath dry and warm
southwest flow aloft, sandwiched between a synoptic scale troughing
pattern over the PacNW and a 590-595 H5 high developing over the
Chihuahua Desert. Daytime temperatures skyrocket into the 90s for the
Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains with low 100s for the lower
Pecos and Canadian River Valleys at Tucumcari and Roswell. A few
bouts of afternoon windy conditions will reach the area Tuesday and
Thursday with a couple of systems shooting through the SW flow aloft.
Otherwise, there are no major sensible weather impacts forecast
outside of the hot and very dry conditions.

The upper high gets squished over northern Mexico Friday leading into
the weekend with the upper level flow pattern turning more zonal,
while a backdoor surface front edges into northeastern NM Friday.
Temperatures fall back across the east thanks to this surface front
heading into the weekend. Low-level moisture behind the front will
also help increase chances for a few afternoon storms developing
along and east of the central mountain chain next weekend, but
overall PoPs are still isolated to scattered at best.

34/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms across north central and northeast NM will
continue to move south-southeastward through the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds are the main concern with these storms. On Monday,
storms will be focused across northeast NM while the remainder of
the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Winds may be breezy as well.
In fact, hot, dry and unstable conditions will be the rule Tuesday
through Friday. As for the details: High temperatures will be a few
to several degrees above normal each afternoon; On average, 6 to 12
hours of single digit humidity values can be expected each day; and
haines values of 5 to 6 will be common. Winds will be strongest on
Tuesday and Thursday, with breezy to windy conditions likely across
the eastern plains. Fortunately, this is the area where recent
rainfall and green up has occurred, thus mitigating the critical
fire weather threat.  Winds should remain below critical thresholds
across the west. Moisture may try to eek back into the eastern
plains next weekend, but it isn't looking as promising as it was
yesterday. Certainly, hot conditions will continue as an upper high
will be centered just to the south of NM.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 AM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

NMZ201>241-071030-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
315 AM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for northeast and
east-central New Mexico this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 60
mph along with hail can be expected with any severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, weather can
change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts, watches and
warnings for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

33

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

NMZ230-231-062245-
Harding County-Union County-
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDING AND EAST
CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 409 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northeast of Bueyeros, or 24 miles southwest of Clayton, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rain will be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Harding and east central Union Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building. Stay away from arroyos!

&&

LAT...LON 3620 10363 3632 10347 3615 10320 3597 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 319DEG 8KT 3621 10349

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
452 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

NMZ230-062315-
Union County-
452 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
MDT...

At 451 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Mount Dora, or 23 miles southwest of Clayton, moving
south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rain will be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Union
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building. Stay away from arroyos!

&&

LAT...LON 3608 10336 3609 10337 3608 10338 3612 10374
      3636 10365 3635 10342 3608 10335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 006DEG 11KT 3630 10355

!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

NMZ230-231-062345-
Harding County-Union County-
514 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDING AND EAST
CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 513 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles south of Mount Dora, or 22 miles southwest of Clayton, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and heavy rain will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Harding and east central Union Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building. Stay away from arroyos!

&&

LAT...LON 3627 10370 3636 10345 3618 10318 3599 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 323DEG 9KT 3626 10350

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

NMZ234>236-070000-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-
530 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROOSEVELT...SOUTH
CENTRAL QUAY AND WEST CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 530 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ragland, or 28 miles south of Tucumcari, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rain will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ragland and Mcalister.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 10387 3486 10368 3458 10342 3444 10373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 329DEG 21KT 3475 10373