Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Las Vegas, NV

613 
WWUS55 KVEF 162308
SVSVEF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
408 PM MST Sun Aug 16 2020

AZC015-162345-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200816T2345Z/
Mohave AZ-
408 PM MST Sun Aug 16 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST
FOR WEST CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

At 405 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over New Kingman-
Butler, or near Kingman, moving southwest at 15 mph has produced 
gusts to 55 mph and blowing dust.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kingman, Golden Valley and New Kingman-Butler. 

This includes Interstate 40 in Arizona between mile markers 40 and
59.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 11393 3526 11382 3506 11412 3529 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 058DEG 12KT 3528 11399 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
CK

872 
WWUS55 KVEF 162336
SVSVEF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
436 PM MST Sun Aug 16 2020

AZC015-162345-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200816T2345Z/
Mohave AZ-
436 PM MST Sun Aug 16 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3542 11393 3526 11382 3506 11412 3529 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 058DEG 12KT 3523 11409 

$$

CK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
107 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Record breaking heat continues through at least mid-week as
exceptionally strong high pressure builds across the region.
Pockets of afternoon showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon on the higher terrain.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Next Sunday.

Forecast concerns change very little over the next week, with heat
and thunderstorms remaining concerns.

First the heat. The region now in the heart of recording-breaking
heatwave, despite some moisture and clouds around, as the upper-
level ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen. The ridge is
forecast to maintain and remain nearly stationary through at least
midweek, before potentially slightly weakening and wobbling
southeast. The slight decrease in heights bring only minimal
relief, with HeatRisk still forecast to be high and very high
across the region through the week - highs currently not forecast
to dip below 110 in Las Vegas, 120 in Death Valley, and 115 in the
Colorado River Valley this week. Thus, there will likely be a need
to extend the Excessive Heat Warning. Will hold off for now,
because a number of factors erode confidence beyond current
warning, including increasing moisture and potential cloud cover.

That makes for a good transition to convective concerns. An area
of moisture with PWATs of three-quarters to one inch current sits
across the southern third of the CWA, then extending up the Sierra
Nevada. This moisture is not expected to really go anywhere in the
next week, so it will just sort of slosh around the area. This
presents the opportunity for afternoon thunderstorms across
portions of the area just about every afternoon. A lack of
organized forcing really limits predictability on these, and will
be driven by cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and local turnover
with previous days' activity. So far, indications are that rain
has been making it to the ground with this activity, but flooding
has yet to emerge as a concern just yet without any organization.
Gusty outflow winds have been the primary issue.

There may be gradual upticks in thunderstorm activity towards mid
and late week as a few things happen that could tip the scales.
The stage-setter is a potent upper-level trough coming into the
Pacific Northwest. This will make the upper-level ridge overhead
"flinch" a bit, and wobble eastward. This will allow moisture from
the still rather active tropics to begin moving into the region,
with slightly less subsidence suppressing activity across the
region. Still hard to pick out an organized feature to trigger
storms, so still the lack of predictability and confidence we have
in the short term. But given that we have already seen increasing
activity the last few days, these trends will continue through
the week, with activity potentially inching northward each day. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions continue. There
is enough moisture in the region to trigger afternoon showers and
storms on higher terrain, but not enough to keep surface humidity
from falling below 15 percent each afternoon. While widespread
gusty winds are not expected, gusty outflow winds can be expected
with potential isolated fire starts from lightning through the
week.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES

               SUN 8/16     MON 8/17     TUE 8/18     WED 8/19
Las Vegas, NV  113 (1939)*  111 (1939)*  111 (1992)*  111 (1992)*
Bishop, CA     106 (1994)   106 (2015)   105 (2001)   106 (1950)
Barstow, CA    114 (1994)*  111 (2015)*  111 (1992)*  111 (2018)*
Needles, CA    118 (2015)*  117 (1892)*  115 (2015)*  117 (2018)*
Kingman, AZ    110 (1933)*  106 (2001)*  109 (1915)*  111 (1915)
Death Valley   125 (1994)*  124 (2001)*  125 (2001)*  124 (1992)*

DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES

               SUN 8/16    MON 8/17    TUE 8/18    WED 8/19
Las Vegas, NV  88 (2008)*  89 (2015)*  86 (2018)*  90 (2018)
Bishop, CA     67 (1992)   65 (1992)*  67 (1970)   67 (1961)
Barstow, CA    81 (1994)*  82 (2012)*  80 (2001)*  80 (1973)*
Needles, CA    93 (1892)*  94 (1903)   91 (2018)*  93 (2018)*
Kingman, AZ    77 (1917)*  81 (1903)*  80 (2001)   76 (1999)*
Death Valley   98 (2008)*  99 (2013)*  98 (2013)*  99 (2003)*

*-Current forecast may be close to current record values.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring typical diurnal
patterns are expected today. A few afternoon cumulus build ups may
occur across the mountainous terrain around the valley, but no
thunderstorm activity is expected in the valley vicinity. Very hot
temperatures will result in high density altitude through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Another hot day with scattered afternoon cloud build
ups and generally light winds.  However, thunderstorm outflow could
result in locally strong wind gusts near KDAG, KBIH, and possibly
KIFP in the afternoon and evening.  Most numerous shower and storm
activity will be near the Sierra and KBIH, with activity tapering
off in the evening and returning to VFR conditions overnight into
tomorrow morning.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Extreme heat will continue as
pockets of isolated thunderstorms are possible across the higher
terrain each afternoon. Spotter activation may be necessary later
in the week as thunderstorm activity increases. Otherwise, spotters
are encouraged to report any significant weather, such as
rainfall, outflow wind impacts, or blowing dust according to
standard operating procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Steele
AVIATION....TB3/Outler

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