Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Las Vegas, NV

364 
WWUS85 KVEF 141802
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1102 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

AZZ102-NVZ461-150300-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200715T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-Lincoln County/Ely Dispatch-
1102 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 /1102 AM MST Tue Jul 14 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
102 AND 461...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arizona...Fire weather zone 102. In Nevada...Fire
  weather zone 461. 

* TIMING...through early this evening.

* WIND...South to southwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts around
  35 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...Afternoon humidity around 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


weather.gov/lasvegas

579 
WWUS85 KVEF 150256
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
756 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

AZZ102-NVZ461-150400-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200715T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-Lincoln County/Ely Dispatch-
756 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 /756 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR 
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 102 AND 461...

The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire as area observations
have shown winds have decreased well below critical thresholds.
Elevated fire weather conditions continue to due very low RH
values, but the threat for rapid wildfire spread will continue to
diminish overnight as winds continue to subside. 

$$


weather.gov/lasvegas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
954 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS....A dry weather pattern with breezy conditions each
afternoon will remain in place across the region the rest of the
week. Temperatures will pull back to near normal staying fairly
consistent going into the weekend. Moisture begins to build back
into the Colorado River Valley and Northwest Arizona by the
weekend and isolated precip chances may return for these areas by
early next week.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...Allowed the NPW and RFW to expire on schedule
this evening due to a decrease in wind field overall across the
area. Did see a new fire start in Lincoln County called the Big
Summit fire and communicated the near term wind forecast with
those partners this afternoon. Debated the need for another
borderline RFW for tomorrow afternoon for Lincoln and possibly
Mohave County but would like a second opinion from the overnight
crew with the advantage of collaboration with neighboring offices.
Otherwise, made some hourly T modifications and increased Min Ts a
bit given those trends this evening.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through early next week.
Moving into the long term period, the focus is the potential for
moisture to begin advecting back into the southeast CWA, namely
the Colorado River Valley and Northwest Arizona. EC ensemble PWAT
does begin to increase the probability of 1+" PWAT values moving
into the weekend. This is in advance of a slowly building high
over the southwest that could set the stage for a favorable
monsoon pattern, at least for the CO river and eastward. There is
surprisingly little variation in the mid to long term periods via
cluster analysis as far as the 500 mb pattern goes, only
introducing decent variance in the day 6/7 and beyond periods.
However, there are indications that once this weak high builds
over the four corners area by early to middle next week, PWATs
will already be in place for multiple afternoons of isolated
monsoonal convection. CPC has indicated an above normal precip
area in their 8-14 day outlook shifting west into central AZ which
would jive with these noted trends. Will continue to monitor these
trends for any indications of this trending more westward. For
now, did not see any areas of significant improvement from the
NBM regarding PoP or QPF so left the slight chance PoPs in for
extreme eastern Mohave as populated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The RFW was allowed to expire this evening as wind
fields have decreased across the area and should continue through
the rest of the overnight period. RH values will increase somewhat
but only into the 20-30 percent range overnight. Winds are
expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon coupled with very
low RH values yet again. At this time, winds look to remain below
critical thresholds for RFW issuance, but isolated locations,
especially higher terrain in NV zone 461 and AZ zone 102 could see
sporadic critical criteria met. Elsewhere, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Occasional gusts to around 20kts from
the west or southwest through the overnight hours. Winds may
become light for a brief period Tuesday morning, with southwest
gusts returning late morning and lasting through the afternoon. No
operationally significant clouds during the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Prevailing south-southwest winds can be expected again
Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 knots. No operationally significant
clouds during the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...TB3
AVIATION...Steele

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