Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Las Vegas, NV

105 
WGUS75 KVEF 242106
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2020

AZC015-242315-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200724T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
206 PM MST Fri Jul 24 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

At 204 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated rainfall has estimated 2 to 3 
inches of fallen rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding along County Road 6
         north of Peach Springs...in the Peach Springs Canyon.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Peach Springs Canyon and County Road 6.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 11353 3576 11347 3575 11333 3574 11333
      3563 11333 3562 11333 3559 11333 3550 11333
      3548 11333 3546 11333 3549 11348 3561 11347

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Boothe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
104 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2020

SYNOPSIS...Storm chances continue today over Mohave County and the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with dry conditions expected
elsewhere. Temps will continue to run near to below normal through
the weekend with a light breeze each day. Another potential shot at
increasing monsoon moisture will come mid to late next week.

&&

SHORT TERM...through Sunday.

Thunderstorms have fired up a little earlier than anticipated this
morning. Most of the towering cumulus and thunderstorm develop has
favored a north-south moisture/instability axis just east of the
Colorado River valley as well as the higher terrain across northwest
Arizona. Convection, possibly training, will continue to develop
over those areas. A mini surge of moisture has spread into the Las
Vegas valley pushing the moisture axis a little further east. With
moisture in place destabilization by this afternoon. A thunderstorm
or two can't be ruled out in the Las Vegas at this point. Steering
flow will push storms north and east off of the moisture boundary
into the unstable air to its east. Thunderstorms should have enough
instability to produce robust updrafts at times thus strong
downdrafts and downburst winds and small, possibly severe hail.
Locally, outflow gusts could be up to 50 MPH. Additionally, training
storms may result in flood concerns through the afternoon.
Without upper-level support and substantial cold pools,
thunderstorm activity should diminish with the loss of daytime
heating...

Though it's fairly weak, cyclonic flow will continue over the region
through the weekend, allowing for thunderstorm chances to increase
over the southern Sierra, while limiting convective chances
elsewhere. Left-over moisture in Mohave County will provide a slight
chance of an isolated storm on Saturday, but by Sunday conditions
will by dry with a side of cumulus.

Not much concern for gradient winds through the weekend but that may
change by early next week. Temperatures will continue to hover a
degree or two below normal through the weekend.

LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday.

Confidence in the extended forecast has decreased since yesterday.
Ensemble guidance is trending towards more shortwave disturbances
rotating through over the Southwest through next week. The
subtropical ridge is still expected to build westward but confidence
in how far west is low. Hot temperatures are still expected next
week, but we may be dealing with more wind and less moisture given
the robust shift in the probabilistic guidance.

With Tropical Storm Hannah potentially at play next, it'd be foolish
to entirely discount a moisture surge, but current trends are
looking less likely.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds are expected
to continue through the day today across the region, generally
remaining below 10 knots. Southerly winds will decrease by 02-03Z
this evening, generally remaining below 10 knots with light and
variable winds . Scattered thunderstorms expected in the Peach
Springs and near the Mormon Mesa corridors this afternoon into the
early evening which could produce gusty outflow winds. Outflow
winds are not expected to move into the Las Vegas Valley this
afternoon, but if storms develop near Boulder City it's possible
outflow winds could reach KLAS, but confidence is very low of this
occurring especially with better low level moisture. Light winds
expected by tomorrow morning. Some FEW to SCT aoa 10 Kft possible
this afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southerly winds will continue across the region today,
generally remaining below 10 knots with some occasional gusts to 15-
20 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to mostly
stay away from terminals today and remain across northwest AZ. Gusty
outflows are possible with any storms that develop but should remain
across northwest AZ. Typical drainage winds will resume between 03-
04Z later this evening. Expect FEW to SCT aoa 8-10 Kft. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorm chances will be limited to far eastern
Mohave County and the southern Sierra on Saturday. Breezy afternoon
winds are likely but not expected to be critical. Outside of the
Sierra, dry conditions are likely areawide by Sunday and will
continue into early next week. While high pressure increases over
Arizona next week, resulting in increased temperatures, atmospheric
disturbances over California will likely lead to breezy winds by
Tuesday or Wednesday. Increasing confidence in dry conditions and
limited thunderstorm chances through next week.

&&

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Boothe
AVIATION...Kryston

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