Tornado Warning 8, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
213 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Water vapor shows robust upper trof crossing the Northern Plains.
Morning/early afternoon convection that prompted warning across
northwest SD has pushed east and out of our cfwa, with outflow
boundary/front now pushing into southwest/south central SD.
Additional storms are firing from Weston County WY into the Black
Hills and southwest SD. Special 19Z raob still reveals very
unstable conditions with plenty of shear along and behind of the
outflow boundary/front.

Rest of this afternoon/evening, still expecting to see an uptick
in storms and severe potential from around the Black Hills through
southwest/south central SD. Storms should be less prominent
further north. Current watch looks good, although there is some
potential we may need extend the watch into the early evening
hours over south central SD. Most activity should be done by
mid/late evening.

Some diurnally driven activity expected Tuesday, mainly in our
southwestern zones, but the threats for severe storms is low.
Temps should be near average with northerly winds and relatively
low dewpoints.

Short wave ridge will cross the region on Wednesday into Thursday
for warmer temps back into the 90s on the plains, with a chance of
mainly afternoon/evening storms. Southwest flow aloft will
continue through the weekend for above average temps and daily
chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1137 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Strong to severe storms expected across western/central SD
through early evening before shifting east. Large hail and
damaging winds are expected with the severe storms. IFR conditions
expected in stronger storms. Mainly VFR conditions expected
across northeast WY, and outside of any storms over
western/central SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
354 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-211300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-
354 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 /454 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...south central South Dakota...southwestern South
Dakota...and the Black Hills of South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue through this morning, then intensify
in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe in the afternoon and
evening, with large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated storms will be possible each day through the rest of the
week. A few storms may be strong or severe each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054>058-071-211300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
354 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming...and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening. A few
storms may be strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated storms will be possible each day through the rest of the
week. A few storms may be strong or severe each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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