Tornado Warning 5, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
508 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Potent upper trough will shift east through southern Canada, with
the southern end of the trough passing over the FA and supporting
the dry line east. Highly capped env in place across the region
with 150-300 J/kg of CIN across the NE 2/3. Further west and along
the Pine Ridge, CIN is weakening as the dry line shifts east and
strong heating occurs respectively. This will allow TS to develop
and push east. Deep layer shear has dropped across the region,
with only 30-40 knots in place, although MLCAPE is remains quite
high at 2000-3000 J/kg. The result will likely be a broken lines
of cells developing as the dry line shifts east, supporting mainly
a strong gusty wind threat as cells may struggle to tap better
CAPE at times, given strong capping and pulse nature due to
marginal shear. Elevated convection may linger overnight in the
western half per steep mid level lapse rates and lift from the
shortwave. Much drier and slightly cooler day Wed with just a
slight chance of TS in Tripp county where the sfc front may linger
in the early afternoon before it shifts east. However, most
activity may end up east of the FA. Secondary impulse may support
a few showers Wed night as the next wave pushes across southern
Canada. Mean upper level riding expected after Wed, with chances
for TS at times with bouts of pos theta-e adv at times and
seasonally warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 505 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area this evening
with local MVFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds and
possibly hail. Southerly LLWS will occur on the western SD plains
tonight ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move through
overnight shifting winds to gusty northwest. VFR conditions
expected Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 222 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Critical fire weather conds still expected later this afternoon
and early evening over NE WY and far southwest SD as winds shift
SW and increase behind a trough. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to around 40 mph are expected with RH’s of 5 to 10
percent on the backside of the trough. There will also be the
potential for dry thunderstorms will little precip and gusty
winds, enhancing critical fire weather conditions. A red flag
warning remains in affect. Critical fire weather conditions are
also possible Wed afternoon in the same areas. RH’s of 10-15
percent with westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph
look possible in a well mixed BL in the afternoon into the early
evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ322.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314-315-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ314-315-317.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SDZ001-002-081300-
Harding-Perkins-
1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Friday, but
severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ012>014-025-032-073-WYZ056-057-071-081300-
Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Northern Foot Hills-Haakon-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-
Northeastern Crook-
1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...
and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Friday, but
severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ024-026-028-030-031-042>044-046-047-049-072-074-081300-
Northern Black Hills-Rapid City-Central Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-
Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Hermosa Foot Hills-
1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020 /1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...south central South Dakota...southwestern South
Dakota...and the Black Hills of South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, but severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ027-029-041-WYZ054-055-058-081300-
Southern Foot Hills-Southern Black Hills-Fall River-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Weston-
1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwestern
South Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...and northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Some
thunderstorms that develop may be accompanied by little to no
rainfall.

Breezy winds and very low relative humidity values will produce
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, but severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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