Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
125 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

With the upper low over Manitoba, active cyclonic flow
persists over the northern plains. Morning showers have exited the
CWA, and afternoon storms have begun popping up. At the surface, a
boundary/cool front is draped across southwestern ND and
northeastern SD. Winds across the CWA are northwesterly around 10
to 15 kts. Current temperatures are only in the 60s to lower 70s,
so lowered today's highs slightly.

Continuing PVA will support thunderstorm activity across the area
this afternoon and evening. Upper-level support today looks better
than that of yesterday; however, shear looks about the same (25-35
kts) and instability looks weaker (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Some
strong storms will be possible, with hail, gusty winds, and brief
heavy rain, but anything severe should be short-lived. Showers and
storms will gradually diminish overnight.

Early Monday, the cool front will slide southward and stall across
the CWA. Scattered showers/storms will redevelop across the CWA by
early afternoon, as weak instability develops beneath some passing
shortwave energy and upper divergence. Shear looks slightly
stronger, but with MLCAPE of only 250-750 J/kg, not expecting much
for strong to severe storms.

An upper ridge will build over the western states for Tues/Wed,
resulting in warmer and drier weather. Shortwave energy ahead of an
approaching trough may bring some showers/storms late Wednesday to
western portions of the area. As the main trough moves over the
northern plains, more widespread precipitation will be possible
Thurs/Fri, with the potential for severe weather returning. Low
confidence in the forecast for next weekend, due to model
discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Scattered showers/storms expected this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Local MVFR/IFR conditions as well as erratic gusty
winds/hail possible in the strongest echoes. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Helgeson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
505 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-221300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
505 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 /605 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today. An isolated stronger
storm or two will be possible across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible at times this week. Widespread severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
325 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

SDZ002-013-014-212215-
Perkins SD-Ziebach SD-Northern Meade Co Plains SD-
325 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZIEBACH...NORTHEASTERN MEADE
AND SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS COUNTIES...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Faith, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dupree, Faith, Red Scaffold, Red Elm, Durkee Lake, Arrow Head Buttes
and Intersection of Cherry Creek and Sunnybrook Roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4508 10149 4500 10150 4499 10148 4469 10181
      4502 10224 4518 10213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 298DEG 26KT 4502 10199

Pojorlie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
344 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

WYZ055-212230-
Southern Campbell WY-
344 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY...

At 343 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Savageton, or 22 miles southwest of Gillette, moving
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright and Reno Junction.

This includes Interstate 90 in Wyoming between Mile Markers 102 and
103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4407 10602 4419 10592 4404 10518 4374 10548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 291DEG 25KT 4406 10582

Pojorlie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
355 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

SDZ043-046-212215-
Jackson SD-Mellette SD-
355 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN MELLETTE AND NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 355 PM MDT/455 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles northeast of Belvidere, or 19 miles east of
Kadoka, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Mellette and northeastern Jackson Counties between Belvidere and
Okaton.

This includes Interstate 90 in South Dakota between Mile Markers 164
and 174.

LAT...LON 4383 10126 4399 10121 4399 10107 4386 10106
      4386 10103 4384 10102 4385 10099 4381 10095
      4382 10093 4371 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 281DEG 25KT 4390 10113

Pojorlie