Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
213 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

Upper level analysis has the forecast area in southwest flow,
with an upper low over western Wyoming/eastern Idaho and another low
further north over Canada. Both of these upper lows are creating a
long wave trough down the Rockies, allowing Pacific moisture to
stream up from the southwest. At the surface, a nearly stationary
boundary is draped from north to south from Manitoba, to
northwestern South Dakota, down into northwestern Colorado. Ahead of
this boundary, strong southerly flow is bringing gulf moisture into
the area. Latest radar shows storms firing along boundary and
convergence zone. Expect storms to keep redeveloping along the
boundary and move north throughout the evening. Hi-res models
continue to show training storms, with over an 1-2" QPF through this
evening and with PWs 150% of average, have issued a flash flood
watch. Low level jet develops this evening, leading to continued
convection over west central and south central South Dakota tonight.

Sunday will be breezy and cooler with some showers possible due to
cold advection aloft. Although much of the area will see dry weather
on Monday, there is a chance of showers over the Black Hills, with
showers and possibly a thunderstorm over parts of southwestern into
south central South Dakota. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and
warmer, but low chances of showers and storms return for the end of
the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1145 AM MDT Sat May 23 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue from the Black
Hills into northwestern South Dakota this afternoon with areas of
MVFR ceilings. These showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage during the afternoon and evening, with some storms
containing large hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and MVFR to IFR
conditions, especially from the Black Hills into northwest and
west central SD. Thunderstorms are expected to slowly push
eastward overnight, with some storms lingering into Sunday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

Training storms near and along the stationary front, may lead to
flash flooding over the next several hours. Potential rainfall
from hi-res models indicate patchy areas of 1.5 to 3 inch rainfall
amounts. With PWs over 150% of average, will continue flash flood
watch for the Black Hills and northwestern South Dakota through
late this evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024>026-028-031-032-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...7/MLS
HYDROLOGY...MLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1200 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

WYZ054>058-071-241300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
1200 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming...and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across
northeastern Wyoming. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the weekend.
Severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028-031-032-072-073-241300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Central Black Hills-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
1200 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...and the Black Hills of
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
tonight. Primary hazards will be large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rainfall that could produce flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ027-029-030-041>044-046-047-049-074-241300-
Southern Foot Hills-Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-
Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Hermosa Foot Hills-
1200 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020 /100 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...and the Black Hills of
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across western and
south central South Dakota. Some of these storms may contain
large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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