Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

019 
WWUS55 KTWC 230156
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
656 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

AZC003-009-230245-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200823T0245Z/
Graham-Cochise-
656 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES...

At 655 PM MST, there were two severe thunderstorms, one near Bowie 
and one 5 miles east of Willcox, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox and Bowie. 

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 337 and 366.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 346.
 Route 191 between mile markers 88 and 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 10972 3241 10938 3208 10962 3228 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 021DEG 14KT 3232 10970 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

542 
WWUS55 KTWC 230221
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
721 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

AZC003-009-230245-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200823T0245Z/
Graham-Cochise-
721 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES...

At 721 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Willcox, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox and Bowie. 

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 337 and 366.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 345.
 Route 191 between mile markers 88 and 91.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 10979 3232 10945 3208 10962 3228 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 021DEG 14KT 3223 10974 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

053 
WWUS55 KTWC 230237
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
737 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

AZC003-009-230247-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200823T0245Z/
Graham-Cochise-
737 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and brief heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3247 10979 3232 10945 3208 10962 3228 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 021DEG 14KT 3220 10975 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A chance of thunderstorms through the weekend, with
temperatures closer to average for late August. High pressure
building back through Arizona will tend to limit thunderstorm
coverage and push temperatures back up next week. Excessive heat
is possible with near record high temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The mid morning discussion remains valid for the
rest of today regarding storm activity. For storms in the Tucson
Metro, a strong outflow will be needed to break the cap. Best
chance for that to happen would be in the evening. Elsewhere,
storms developing across the higher terrain will work south and
west through the evening, with the greatest coverage south and
east of Tucson.

Did not make any changes to the Excessive Heat Watch at this time.
There is just enough uncertainty in regards to moisture/storm
chances Monday into Tuesday, which could keep temperatures down a
degree or two from forecast. The way this Monsoon has gone, an
upgrade to a warning is probably coming.

Sunday remains on track for an active day across most of SE AZ,
including the Tucson Metro. Storms will once again fire off the
higher terrain north and east of Tucson and work into the lower
deserts to the south and west through the late afternoon and into
the evening. Main threats will be heavy rain and gusty winds. Some
localized blowing dust cannot be ruled out for portions of Pima
and Pinal Counties if outflows are organized and strong.

Activity continues Monday and potentially into Tuesday with the
main focus for areas west of Tucson. We will have to wait and see
how Sunday works out. If we have a big day, this could be tempered
a bit.

Still expecting a downward trend in activity mid to late week as
high pressure strengthens in the region and meanders south. This
will provide a less than optimal pattern for storm activity. By
next weekend, there are hints another upswing in activity is
possible. Confidence is marginal at this time as the pattern
appears to be a little messy across the west.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z. FEW-BKN clouds 7k-12k ft MSL
much of the period. ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA this afternoon into this
evening. Some +TSRA will be possible with brief reductions in
CIGS/VIS and MTN obscurations. Expect another round of ISOLD-SCT
TSRA/SHRA Sunday afternoon into the evening, especially for KTUS
and KOLS. +TSRA with aviation impacts once again possible. Wind
gusts over 40 kts possible with any TS. SFC winds generally less
than 10 kts this evening and Sunday morning becoming NWLY 5-10 kts
with gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture remains in place with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms into
Monday. Greatest coverage appears to be Sunday. Min RH 25-30
percent across the valleys and 30-45 percent in the mountains
through Sunday along with good/excellent overnight RH recoveries.
20-foot winds generally remain less than 15 mph outside of any
thunderstorm gusts which could reach 40+ mph. Drier conditions and
hotter temperatures next week slightly reduces shower/thunderstorm
coverage and daytime humidity values by 5 to 10 percent.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ501-502-504>506-509.

&&

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