Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

631 
WWUS55 KTWC 312308
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
408 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

AZC023-312315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200731T2315Z/
Santa Cruz-
408 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 407 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Nogales
International Airport, or 9 miles northeast of Nogales, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Patagonia, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake
State Park and Kino Springs.

This includes Route 82 between mile markers 5 and 23.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 11093 3161 11080 3153 11061 3133 11071
      3133 11075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 027DEG 13KT 3143 11080 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TGD

525 
WWUS55 KTWC 312315
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
415 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

AZC023-312325-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200731T2315Z/
Santa Cruz-
415 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3139 11093 3161 11080 3153 11061 3133 11071
      3133 11075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 027DEG 13KT 3141 11081 

$$

TGD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1010 AM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure aloft through the weekend will
provide very hot daytime temperatures, with record or near record
highs through Saturday. A side effect is that thunderstorm
development will be very limited again today. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms return over the weekend to parts of the area, although
hotter than normal temperatures will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered clouds across southeast Arizona this morning
were starting to diminish as temperatures were starting to heat up,
and were generally within 3 degrees of temperatures this time
yesterday. Still looking at highs this afternoon reaching near
record levels and the Excessive Heat Warning remaining in effect.
Hires models including the HRRR and NAM Nest are highlighting the
White Mountains and International border areas this afternoon for a
few showers and thunderstorms. This is despite the morning sounding
coming in with 0.89" PWAT with a hefty cap. That said, the
atmospheric flow through the column is such that any storms which
develop should move toward the south or southwest and not remain
over one location for too long. With that, the current forecast is
handling the trends well and no updates are planned this morning.
Please see the remaining sections for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/18Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft MSL much of the forecast period. There
will be a slight chance of -TSRA/-SHRA mainly along the
International Border between OLS and DUG and in the White Mountains
northeast of SAD. SFC wind variable in direction and less than 12
kts aside from possible tstm gusts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect mainly dry conditions across southeast
Arizona today. Any thunderstorms should be limited to near the
International Border and in the White Mountains. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are then forecast to return this weekend
into the middle of next week, with the bulk of coverage east to
south of Tucson. 20-foot winds will generally follow typical diurnal
patterns at less than 15 mph apart from thunderstorm wind gusts.
High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal through at
least Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The main message will be the hot temperatures
through at least Saturday as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft
remains centered over the region. As a result, an Excessive Heat
Warning remains in effect through Saturday evening. Models continued
to suggest an increase in moisture on Saturday along with a more
favorable steering flow for thunderstorms over the weekend. This
shift in the steering flow may help thunderstorms that develop along
the rim country and White Mountains to track south and southwest
into the lower deserts in the late afternoon and evening, especially
Saturday and possibly Sunday. In general, high temperatures will be
lowering this coming week with day-to-day fluctuations in
thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM MST Saturday for
AZZ501>506-509.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
318 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

AZZ503-513-312300-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
318 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 317 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patagonia, or 15 miles northeast of Nogales, moving southwest at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Patagonia, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake
State Park and Kino Springs.

LAT...LON 3137 11097 3159 11078 3151 11059 3133 11066
      3133 11088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 026DEG 9KT 3149 11073

BF