Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

421 
WWUS55 KTWC 312159
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

AZC023-312215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200531T2215Z/
Santa Cruz-
259 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 258 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast 
of Nogales, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Nogales, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake State 
Park and Kino Springs.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Route 82 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 11100 3150 11064 3133 11070 3133 11098
      3134 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 182DEG 13KT 3144 11080 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Meyer

373 
WWUS55 KTWC 312214
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
314 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

AZC023-312223-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200531T2215Z/
Santa Cruz-
314 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Warning has 
weakened below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate 
threat to life or property.

Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However small 
hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3148 11100 3150 11064 3133 11070 3133 11098
      3134 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 179DEG 9KT 3146 11080 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST Sun May 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Much hotter than normal temperatures continue today.
Lingering moisture will result in a threat for showers and
thunderstorms through Monday followed by less coverage by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper trough near the West Coast early this morning
with strong high pressure aloft centered over the southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a deep inverted trough was moving westward over eastern
Mexico. Various high-res models suggest a similar timing of the
development of showers and thunderstorms as compared to Saturday, as
well as the potential eventual coverage of showers/tstms this
afternoon and evening.

High temperatures today are forecast to range about 5-10 degrees
above normal. As such, the Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect
until 8 pm MST this evening. Regarding the precip scenario, the
models suggest showers/tstms to initiate southeast of Tucson
by early this afternoon. The favored general area for this
development appears to be far southeast Pima County, eastern Santa
Cruz County, and southwest Cochise County.

Showers and thunderstorms should develop and/or migrate northward
and northwestward later this afternoon. The official forecast
continues this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers/tstms
mainly within an area bounded by Kitt Peak-Picacho Peak-Mount Graham-
Bisbee. Isolated showers/tstms should also prevail across the White
Mountains. The main threat will be gusty outflows and the potential
for patchy to areas of blowing dust, especially by this evening and
perhaps impacting the I-10 corridor northwest of Tucson. Expect
showers/tstms to decrease in coverage and especially intensity this
evening, and a few showers producing very light rainfall may occur
late tonight west of Tucson. A very similar scenario is on tap
Monday afternoon into Monday night.

The various models depict the somewhat deeper south-to-north
moisture axis presently over the central portion of this forecast
area will shift into the eastern part of the area on Tuesday as low
pressure aloft deepens west of southern California/northern Baja
California. As such, showers/tstms Tuesday afternoon should be
limited to mainly near mountains east of Tucson. Isolated showers/
tstms may occur across the White Mountains Tuesday evening and
Wednesday and Thursday during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, precip-
free conditions for this forecast area.

Based on the 31/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS, the potential exists
for Excessive Heat to return to the area Wednesday into Thursday.
Have given thought toward an Excessive Heat Watch issuance for
essentially the same area currently in effect. However, will defer
this notion to subsequent shifts.

The deep upper low southwest of southern California is finally
progged to lift northeastward into southern California while filling
on Friday. Have noted the models propensity for a substantial
increase in southerly mid-level winds across the area on Friday
ahead of this filling/ejecting system. Expect isolated to scattered
showers/tstms Thursday evening mainly northeast of Tucson, then a
slight chance of showers/tstms mostly near the White Mountains late
Thursday night into Friday. Some gusty winds may occur at lower
elevations on Friday. Thereafter, dry conditions Friday evening into
Saturday under generally southwesterly flow aloft. Daytime temps
Friday and Saturday should trend quite close to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon, tapering off
during the early evening. The areal coverage generally favors a
north/south line from Santa Cruz County up through eastern Pinal
County, and the White Mountains. SKC-FEW clouds above 15k ft MSL
west of Kitt Peak, with SCT-BKN clouds at 10k-15k ft MSL from Kitt
Peak eastward. Brief wind gusts to 40 kts may occur due to TSRA
outflows. Otherwise, SFC wind generally 12 kts or less tending
SLY/SWLY during the afternoon, with some gusts around 20 kts into
the early evening hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across portions of the area through Monday. The
activity focuses on a general line from Santa Cruz County up through
eastern Pinal County, and over the White Mountains. By Tuesday most
storms should hug close to the mountain ranges, and then favoring
Graham and Greenlee Counties for Thursday/Friday. Gusty and erratic
winds will occur at times due to thunderstorms outflows.
Southwesterly winds become a bit breezy on Friday, but otherwise
remain under 15 mph with the occasional afternoon gust due to
heating.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>507-
509.

&&

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION...Howlett
FIRE WEATHER....Howlett

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1243 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

AZZ502>504-312030-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
1243 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
MST...

At 1242 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Three Points, or 19 miles northwest of Sahuarita, moving north at 10
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm along with
blowing dust.

Locations impacted include...
Three Points, Valencia West, Tucson Estates and Ryan AirField.

LAT...LON 3196 11118 3198 11139 3217 11141 3217 11112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 187DEG 9KT 3205 11128

Meyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

AZZ503-504-312145-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-Tucson
Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
202 PM MST Sun May 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

At 201 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
west of Green Valley, moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm, along with
blowing dust.

Locations impacted include...
Sahuarita, Green Valley, Three Points and Summit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 11099 3184 11122 3206 11126 3201 11090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 180DEG 8KT 3187 11111

Meyer