Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tucson, AZ

770 
WWUS55 KTWC 142123
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
223 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

AZC003-142145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200714T2145Z/
Cochise-
223 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 223 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. David, or
near Benson, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Benson and St. David. 

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 307 and 311.
 Route 80 between mile markers 293 and 304.
 Route 90 between mile markers 292 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 11030 3193 11035 3202 11022 3187 11012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 242DEG 7KT 3189 11028 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AH

724 
WWUS55 KTWC 142142
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

AZC003-142152-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200714T2145Z/
Cochise-
242 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3183 11030 3193 11035 3202 11022 3187 11012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 242DEG 7KT 3191 11024 

$$

AH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
945 AM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
favoring southeast of Tucson and across the White Mountains.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should prevail Wednesday into
early next week especially during afternoon and evening hours.
Hotter than normal high temperatures through Thursday with daytime
temperatures close to seasonal normals this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/visible satellite imagery depicted a band of mid-
level and mostly cirriform clouds extending generally from eastern
Santa Cruz County/Cochise County northeastward toward the White
Mountains at this time. Meanwhile, clear skies or a few cirrus
clouds were noted elsewhere. The 14/12Z KTWC sounding precip water
value of 1.36 inches was nearly identical to 24 hours ago. Some
differences in the various stability parameters, but MLCAPE yielded
just 40 J/kg. LCL-EL mean wind was 227 degs/14 kts.

Various high resolution models including the U of A WRF-NAM and WRF-
RR, and several HRRR solutions suggest isolated to perhaps scattered
coverage of showers/tstms this afternoon/evening favoring portions
if not much of Cochise County, and across the White Mtns. Some
solutions suggest a few showers/tstms may encroach upon the far
southeast part of the Tucson metro area (i.e. Vail) this afternoon.
Showers/tstms are then depicted to more mainly northeastward and
should mostly be east of this forecast area by around midnight.
Curious to note a potential MCS encroaching upon far southeast
sections late tonight, and least per WRF-NAM.

At any rate, based on these solutions, there are no changes
forthcoming regarding the inherited forecast precip chances for this
afternoon and evening. High temps this afternoon will generally be
around 5 degrees or so above normal.

Please refer to the additional sections in this product for further
detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/18Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening southeast of KTUS,
especially vicinity KDUG, KALK and KFHU. Other isolated -TSRA/-SHRA
vicinity White Mtns northeast of KSAD. Expect bulk of any -TSRA/-SHRA
to dissipate around 06Z-08Z Wednesday. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds 10k-
15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds above 20k ft MSL east to south of KTUS.
West to northwest of KTUS FEW clouds above 20k ft MSL. Surface wind
this evening sely/sly 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Surface
wind variable in direction mainly under 12 kts at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through the forecast period.
Conditions are slightly less favorable today, with storms mainly
southeast of Tucson and over the White Mountains. Activity looks to
increase Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures will ease back to
slightly above normal levels by Friday. Relative humidities hold
close to average through the week with generally good overnight
recoveries. 20-ft winds generally remain less than 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness, although today will be breezier across the Upper
Gila River Valley. Also, any afternoon/evening thunderstorms will
capable of gusts to 45 mph or higher.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Showers over Cochise county have come to an end
with the cloud cover slowly diminishing. For today, the environment
is less favorable for convection over much of the area with drier SW
flow aloft. So at this time I have limited the threat of convection
to well southeast of the Tucson area for the afternoon and evening
hours today. Still running rather warm with high temperatures
peaking around 5 degrees warmer than average for the day.

Then Wednesday onward the flow aloft becomes more southerly then
eventually southeasterly at times with low level moisture increasing
through time as well. This should set us up well for an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday afternoon through the
coming weekend. It will also help to steadily trim the high
temperatures each day to where we should finally be near average
levels by Saturday. For this forecast package I trended pops upward
a bit for most afternoon and evening periods especially southeast of
the Tucson area into the solid chance category. Wednesday the bulk
of the activity will be east of Tucson then Thursday into the
weekend it shifts a bit further west. By the weekend, with an
increase in precipitable water the storms should also be a bit more
efficient in rainfall production. A quick look into the following
week suggests more of the same, so the monsoon season finally looks
to be getting into full swing.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

AZZ509-511-142145-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount
Graham-
204 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MST...

At 203 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Thatcher, or 10 miles southwest of Safford, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Thatcher, Pima, Central and Frye Mesa Dam.

LAT...LON 3270 10983 3280 10996 3293 10980 3282 10965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 242DEG 8KT 3277 10986

AH