Freeze Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
of next week. Cooler than normal temperatures through Friday will
give way to slightly warmer than normal later in the weekend through
next week. Easterly winds will be quite gusty today then ease up
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A bit breezy out there this morning as the upper level
trough slides south across the area. This will continue through a
good part of the day with speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range and gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. Added haze to the forecast as some particulate
matter looks to be kicking up outside in the city lights which would
be expected as dry as it is with the breeze we have. The upper trough
is bringing with it some decent cold air advection so afternoon highs
will be anywhere from 6-13 degrees cooler than yesterday depending on
location. Unfortunately this is another dry system for us.

The wind will drop off this evening with a cool and dry air mass in
place resulting in cool Friday morning temperatures, similar to what
we had on November 28th. Will follow our neighbor to the north and
change the freeze watch to a warning for Friday. Highs will warm
several degrees Friday afternoon however we should remain cooler than
normal for the day.

From Saturday into the middle of next week temperatures will moderate
further with readings running 3-5 degrees warmer than normal,
generally light winds and mostly clear skies.

Beyond next Wednesday the deterministic and ensemble model runs are
trying to converge on a solution of an upper low to our west that
will move east and push moisture up across the area with the
potential for precipitation over southern Arizona. That said, it is
still nearly 8 days out there and a lot can change. It does offer
hope as it has been there in some form for several model runs,
however that old saying of 'when in drought, forecast drought'
lingers in the back of my mind.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
Clear skies across most of southeast AZ, except SCT-BKN clouds at
10k-15k ft MSL from Willcox eastward through 03/15Z. Easterly winds
of 12-22 kts and gusts to 30-35 kts will continue through about 20z
today then slowly diminish this afternoon and evening. Strongest
gusts in the vicinity of KTUS, KDUG, and KALK terminals, and over
higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected into the middle of next
week, with cooler than normal temperatures through Friday, then
warmer than normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.
Gusty easterly winds will continue through today, resulting in
localized elevated fire weather conditions in the windiest locations.
After today, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less and from
an easterly direction into early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ505-506.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson